The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election. After facing only Green Party opposition in 2008, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor sought re-election to a third term in 2014. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 56% to 39%. The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed. Cotton's margin exceeded almost all published opinion polling; for most of the cycle, it was seen as one of the most competitive races in the nation.

This is the last time a Senator from Arkansas lost re-election. Since Cotton took office in 2015, Republicans have held both of Arkansas' Senate seats and the state's entire congressional delegation, both of which had not happened since 1877. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.

Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.

Background Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history. Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years. In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.

The election was originally thought to be extremely close, which was backed up by polling. Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points. Cotton's victory, along with other Republican victories in other statewide elections, solidified the state's shift towards the GOP.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Mark Pryor, incumbent U.S. Senator

Declined Bobby Tullis, former state representative

Results

Republican primary Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates Nominee Tom Cotton, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)

Declined Rick Crawford, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 1st congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election) Mark Darr, Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas (2011–2014) Timothy Griffin, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2011–2015) (running for Lieutenant Governor) Steve Womack, U.S. Representative Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)

Results

Third parties Candidates Declared Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010

General election Endorsements

Fundraising Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand Mark Pryor (D) $10,428,246 $12,034,784 $364,653 Tom Cotton (R) $7,557,443 $6,411,763 $1,885,435

Debates Complete video of debate, October 13, 2014

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014

Polling Poll source MarkPryor (D) TomCotton (R) Other UndecidedBasswood Research March 16–17, 2013 600 ± 4% 35% 43% — 22%Basswood Research June 22–23, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 40% — 19%Clark ResearchClark Research July 23–27, 2013 729 ± 4% 43% 35% — 21%On Message Inc.On Message Inc. July 29–30, 2013 600 ± 4% 42% 44% — 14%Harper PollingHarper Polling August 4–5, 2013 587 ± 4.04% 41% 43% — 16%Global Strategy GroupGlobal Strategy Group August 26–29, 2013 501 ± ?% 47% 40% — 13%Harper PollingHarper Polling September 24–26, 2013 622 ± 3.93% 45% 42% — 13%Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeTalk Business/Hendrix College October 8, 2013 603 ± 4% 42% 41% — 17%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013 955 ± 3.2% 44% 41% — 15%University of ArkansasUniversity of Arkansas October 10–17, 2013 800 ± 3.5% 34% 32% — 34%Impact Management GroupImpact Management Group October 24, 2013 911 ± 3.2% 41% 42% — 18%Polling Company/WomanTrendPolling Company/WomanTrend December 6–7, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 41% 48% — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling December 13–15, 2013 1,004 ± 3.1% 44% 44% — 12%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports February 4–5, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 45% 5% 10%Harper PollingHarper Polling January 26–27, 2014 533 ± 4.24% 36% 42% — 22%Impact Management GroupImpact Management Group February 10, 2014 1,202 ± 2.83% 42% 46% — 13%Hickman AnalyticsHickman Analytics February 17–20, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 39% 41% 8% 12% 42% 51% — 8%Anzalone Liszt Grove ResearchAnzalone Liszt Grove Research March 27 – April 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 45% — 7%Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeTalk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 2014 1,068 ± 3% 46% 43% 4% 8%Opinion Research AssociatesOpinion Research Associates April 1–8, 2014 400 ± 5% 48% 38% — 8%Harper PollingHarper Polling April 9–10, 2014 522 ± 4.29% 39% 39% — 22%New York Times/Kaiser FamilyNew York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014 857 ± 4% 46% 36% 4% 15%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 857 ± 3.35% 43% 46% 4% 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014 840 ± 3.4% 43% 42% — 16%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist April 30 – May 4, 2014 876 ± 3.3% 51% 40% 1% 3%Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 43% 47% 4% 6%Public Opinion StrategiesPublic Opinion Strategies May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.39% 41% 46% — 13%Fabrizio LeeFabrizio Lee June 3–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 51% — 5%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014 755 ± 3.57% 45% 49% 2% 4%Impact Management GroupImpact Management Group June 29, 2014 1290 ± 2.72% 43% 47% — 10%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing July 7–8, 2014 987 ± 3% 44% 51% 5% —CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,628 ± 2.9% 45% 49% 1% 5%Anzalone Liszt Grove Research July 20–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 46% — 6%Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeTalk Business/Hendrix College July 22–25, 2014 1,780 ± 2.3% 42% 44% 7%Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4% 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 1–3, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 39% 41% 7% 14% 41% 43% — 16%Opinion Research AssociatesOpinion Research Associates August 6–14, 2014 414 ± 4.9% 46% 41% 4% 9%Rasmussen Reports August 25–26, 2014 750 ± 4% 44% 43% 6% 6%ccAdvertisingccAdvertising August 31 – September 1, 2014 1,735 ± ? 29% 37% — 34%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,572 ± 3% 39% 43% 2% 16%CNN/ORC InternationalCNN/ORC International August 28 – September 2, 2014 523 LV ± 4.5% 47% 49% — 4% 839 RV ± 3.5% 47% 38% — 14%Hickman AnalyticsHickman Analytics August 26 – September 3, 2014 700 ± 3.7% 45% 43% — 12%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist September 2–4, 2014 639 LV ± 3.9% 40% 45% 6% 9% 1,068 RV ± 3% 41% 41% 8%Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1% 11%Answers UnlimitedAnswers Unlimited September 7–9, 2014 600 ± 3.5% 46% 42% 4%Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2% 8%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing September 8–11, 2014 902 ± 4% 43% 47% 2%Nathan LaFrance (L) 8%Hickman AnalyticsHickman Analytics September 13–18, 2014 801 ± 3.5% 46% 43% — 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 18–21, 2014 1,453 ± 2.6% 38% 43% 6%Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3% 13% 39% 45% — 15%SuffolkSuffolk September 20–23, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 45% 43% 5% 7%Rasmussen Reports September 24–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 47% 5% 8%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,991 ± 2% 41% 45% 1% 13%Opinion Research AssociatesOpinion Research Associates October 1–5, 2014 400 ± 5% 45% 42% 5% 9%Fox NewsFox News October 4–7, 2014 707 ± 3.5% 39% 46% 5%Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1% 11%Rasmussen Reports October 13–15, 2014 940 ± 3% 44% 47% 4% 5%Talk Business/HendrixTalk Business/Hendrix October 15–16, 2014 2,075 ± 2.2% 40.5% 49% 5%Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2% 6%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist October 19–23, 2014 621 ± 3.9% 43% 45% 6%Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1% 7% 971 ± 3.1% 43% 42% 6% 9%CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,567 ± 4% 42% 47% 1% 10%Opinion Research AssociatesOpinion Research Associates October 25–26, 2014 401 ± 5% 45% 44% 2%Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1% 10%Issues & Answers NetworkIssues & Answers Network October 21–27, 2014 568 ± 4.1% 36% 49% — 15%Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2014 967 ± 3% 44% 51% 4% 2%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,092 ± 3% 41% 49% 4% 5% 45% 51% — 4%Opinion Research AssociatesOpinion Research Associates October 30 – November 1, 2014 400 ± 5% 45% 43% 4%Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3% 8%

Results

By county