The 2014 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
This was one of nine Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2012 presidential election. Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder ran for election to a second term in office. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2014, in which Snyder and former U.S. representative Mark Schauer were unopposed in the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively.
Snyder was considered vulnerable in his bid for a second term, as reflected in his low approval ratings. The consensus among The Cook Political Report, Governing, The Rothenberg Political Report, and Sabato's Crystal Ball was that the contest was a "tossup". Snyder was saddled with a negative approval rating, while his Democratic opponent, former U.S. representative Mark Schauer, suffered from a lack of name recognition. Despite having a more centrist voting record in the House of Representatives, Schauer ran as more of a populist who put education, unions and taxes as his top priorities.
Despite concerns about his approval rating hurting his chances at victory, Snyder was re-elected with 50.9% of the vote. As of , this is the last time a Republican was elected Governor of Michigan, and the last time the Republican candidate won the counties of Kalamazoo, Oakland, Clinton, Macomb, Kent, Leelanau, and Isabella, and the last time the Democratic candidate won the counties of Alger, Baraga, and Manistee. This is also the last time that the winner of the Michigan gubernatorial election won a majority of counties, and the first time since 1990 that Michigan simultaneously voted for gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates of different political parties.
Republican primary Polling indicated significant opposition from Republican primary voters in Michigan towards Snyder's bid for re-election. This came in the midst of discussions by the Tea Party network regarding whether incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley should be replaced as Snyder's running mate. Snyder started running campaign ads in September 2013, immediately following the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference and formally declared that he is seeking re-election in January 2014.
In August 2013, Tea Party leader Wes Nakagiri announced that he would challenge Calley for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor. At the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference (September 20–22, 2013), speculation reported by the media also included Todd Courser as a potential challenger to Calley. At the Michigan Republican Party state convention, which took take place on August 23, 2014, incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley won renomination.
On January 3, 2014, Mark McFarlin (who had originally declared his intention to run as a Democrat the previous November), announced that he would be running for the Republican nomination. He believed that his populist platform was too conservative for the Democratic ticket, and that he could get crossover support in the general election. However, he did not submit his filing petitions in time to qualify for the August primary ballot.
Candidates
Declared Rick Snyder, incumbent governor of Michigan
Failed to qualify Mark McFarlin, private investigator and Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002 (had declared as a Democrat, then switched parties)
Declined Mike Bishop, former Majority Leader of the Michigan Senate (running for Congress) Todd Courser, Tea Party activist, candidate for the Michigan Board of Education in 2012 and for chairman of the Michigan Republican Party in 2013 (subscription required) (transcribed from original source)
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickSnyder DaveAgema UndecidedHarper PollingHarper Polling September 4, 2013 958 ±3.17% 64% 16% 20%iCaucus MichiganiCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013 744 ± 4.08% 32.39% 42.34% 25.27%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickSnyder MikeBishop UndecidediCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013 744 ± 4.08% 36.83% 24.19% 38.98%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickSnyder KeithButler UndecidediCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013 744 ± 4.08% 38.98% 11.29% 49.73%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickSnyder BetsyDeVos UndecidediCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013 744 ± 4.08% 40.59% 18.41% 40.99%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickSnyder GaryGlenn UndecidediCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013 744 ± 4.08% 39.11% 30.78% 30.11%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickSnyder PeteHoekstra UndecidediCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013 744 ± 4.08% 47.04% 21.77% 31.18%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickSnyder BillSchuette UndecidediCaucus Michigan August 26–30, 2013 744 ± 4.08% 31.85% 38.44% 29.70%
Results
Democratic primary Michigan Democratic Party leadership rallied support behind former U.S. representative Mark Schauer, who ran unopposed in the Democratic Party primary. Party Chairman Lon Johnson encouraged all other potential challengers to stay out of the race so as to avoid a costly and potentially bitter primary campaign. Conservative Democrat and "birther" Mark McFarlin had announced on November 29, 2013, that he was running for the Democratic nomination for governor, but he switched parties on January 3, 2014, leaving Schauer as the only candidate for the Democratic nomination.
Candidates
Declared Mark Schauer, former U.S. representative Running mate: Lisa Brown, Oakland County Clerk & Register of Deeds and former state representative
Withdrew Mark McFarlin, private investigator and Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002 (ran as a Republican)
Declined John C. Austin, president of the Michigan Board of Education Vicki Barnett, Minority Whip of the Michigan House of Representatives Jocelyn Benson, dean of Wayne State University Law School and nominee for Michigan Secretary of State in 2010 Virgil Bernero, Mayor of Lansing and nominee for governor in 2010 Mark Bernstein, attorney and Regent of the University of Michigan Mike Duggan, Mayor-elect of Detroit and former Wayne County Prosecutor Mark Hackel, Macomb County Executive Dan Kildee, U.S. representative Gary Peters, U.S. representative (running for the U.S. Senate) Bart Stupak, former U.S. representative Gretchen Whitmer, Minority Leader of the Michigan Senate
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkSchauer BobKing UndecidedMitchell ResearchMitchell Research May 28, 2013 361 ± 5.16% 31% 38% 31%
Results
Minor parties
Candidates
Libertarian Party Mary Buzuma, nominee for Michigan's 2nd congressional district in 2012 Running mate: Scott Boman, activist, former chairman of the Libertarian Party of Michigan and perennial candidate
Green Party Paul Homeniuk Running mate: Candace Caveny, nominee for the state senate in 2006, 2008 and 2010 and nominee for the State Board of Education in 2012
U.S. Taxpayers Party Mark McFarlin, Independent write-in candidate for governor in 2002 Running mate: Richard Mendoza
Independents
Candidates
Declared Robin Sanders, retired from the United States Navy and the Michigan Department of Corrections
General election Debates Complete video of debate, October 12, 2014 - C-SPAN
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014
Polling