This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries. The shading for each poll indicates the candidate(s) which are within one margin of error of the poll's leader.
For the significance of the earliest state votes, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, see United States presidential primary – Iowa and New Hampshire. For when any given state votes, see Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 – Schedule of primaries and caucuses.
Alabama
Winner: Donald Trump Primary date: March 1, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherPrimary resultsPrimary resultsMarch 1, 2016 Donald Trump43.42% Ted Cruz21.09% Marco Rubio18.66% Ben Carson 10.24%, John Kasich 4.43%, Jeb Bush 0.46%, Mike Huckabee 0.30%, Rand Paul 0.22%, Chris Christie 0.10%, Rick Santorum 0.07%, Carly Fiorina 0.06%, Lindsey Graham 0.03%SurveyMonkey Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 741February 22–29, 2016Donald Trump47% Ted Cruz18% Marco Rubio14% Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 3%, Undecided 9%Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 450 February 25–28, 2016Donald Trump42% Marco Rubio19% Ted Cruz16% Ben Carson 11%, John Kasich 5%, Undecided 7%Opinion Savvy Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 460February 25–26, 2016Donald Trump35.8% Marco Rubio23.0% Ted Cruz16.2% Ben Carson 10.5%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 7.0% AL.com Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 500December 10–13, 2015Donald Trump35% Ted Cruz15% Marco Rubio12% Ben Carson 12%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Chris Christie 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul <1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Lindsey Graham <1% Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 2% Sample size: 1616 September 3, 2015Donald Trump38% Ben Carson16.7% Jeb Bush4.9% Ted Cruz 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.7%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 2.3%, Rand Paul 1.5%, John Kasich 1.3%, Scott Walker 1.1%, Chris Christie 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Rick Perry 0.3%, Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.1%, unsure 23.2%News-5/Strategy ResearchNews-5/Strategy Research Margin of error: ± 2% Sample size: 3500 August 11, 2015Donald Trump30% Jeb Bush15% Ben Carson11% Marco Rubio 11%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Ted Cruz 7.5%, Scott Walker 3%, Other 5%Opinion Savvy/Insider AdvantageOpinion Savvy/Insider Advantage Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 481 August 2–3, 2015Donald Trump37.6% Ben Carson14.6% Jeb Bush11.8% Mike Huckabee 7.9%, Ted Cruz 4.5%, Scott Walker 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Marco Rubio 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.2%, Bobby Jindal 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.2%, Rick Perry 1.0%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Carly Fiorina 0.5%, George Pataki 0.0%, Someone else 1.9%, Undecided 3.1%CygnalCygnal Margin of error: ± 3.42% Sample size: 821 July 7–8, 2014Jeb Bush19.8% Ben Carson12.6% Rand Paul10.5% Chris Christie 8.8%, Rick Perry 7.2%, Ted Cruz 5.6%, Rick Santorum 5.3%, Bobby Jindal 3.9%, Scott Walker 3.6%, Undecided 22.6%
Alaska
Winner: Ted Cruz Primary date: March 1, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherCaucus resultsCaucus resultsMarch 1, 2016 Ted Cruz36.37% Donald Trump33.64% Marco Rubio15.16% Ben Carson 10.83%, John Kasich 3.99%, Other 0.01%Alaska Dispatch News/Ivan Moore Research Margin of error: – Sample size: 651 January 23, 2016Donald Trump27.9% Ted Cruz23.8% Ben Carson8.5% Jeb Bush 7.3%, Marco Rubio 6.9%, Chris Christie 3.3%, Rand Paul 3.0%, John Kasich 1.7%, Other 4.1%, Undecided 13.4%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 337 July 31 – August 3, 2014Ted Cruz16%Rand Paul15%Mike Huckabee14% Chris Christie 12%, Jeb Bush 12%, Sarah Palin 11%, Scott Walker 7%, Paul Ryan 6%, Marco Rubio 5%, Someone else/Not sure 4%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 313 May 8–11, 2014Ted Cruz15%Jeb Bush14%Chris Christie14% Sarah Palin 12%, Rand Paul 11%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Paul Ryan 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Someone else/Not sure 11%Chris Christie16%Jeb Bush15%Ted Cruz15% Rand Paul 14%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Paul Ryan 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Someone else/Not sure 16%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies Margin of error: ± 7% Sample size: 190 April 14, 2014Ted Cruz16%Rand Paul15%Jeb Bush13% Mike Huckabee 12%, Chris Christie 11%, Marco Rubio 7%, Scott Walker 6%, John Kasich 1%, Undecided 19%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 442 January 30 – February 1, 2014Rand Paul15%Ted Cruz13%Sarah Palin13% Jeb Bush 12%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Chris Christie 10%, Marco Rubio 6%, Paul Ryan 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Someone Else/Undecided 12%Ted Cruz16%Jeb Bush14%Rand Paul14% Mike Huckabee 13%, Chris Christie 9%, Marco Rubio 8%, Paul Ryan 7%, Scott Walker 5%, Someone Else/Undecided 15%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 507 July 25–28, 2013Rand Paul18%Sarah Palin14% Chris Christie13% Jeb Bush 11%, Marco Rubio 9%, Paul Ryan 9%, Ted Cruz 8%, Rick Santorum 5%, George Zimmerman 2%, Someone Else/Undecided 12%Rand Paul20% Jeb Bush15% Chris Christie14% Paul Ryan 14%, Marco Rubio 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Rick Santorum 6%, Someone Else/Undecided 12%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 537 Feb. 4–5, 2013Marco Rubio18%Mike Huckabee14% Rand Paul12% Chris Christie 11%, Paul Ryan 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Sarah Palin 9%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Rick Perry 1%, Someone Else/Undecided 10%
Arizona
Winner: Donald Trump Primary date: March 22, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherPrimary resultsPrimary resultsMarch 22, 2016 Donald Trump45.95% Ted Cruz27.61% John Kasich11.59% Ben Carson 2.39%, Jeb Bush 0.70%, Rand Paul 0.36%, Mike Huckabee 0.21%, Carly Fiorina 0.20%, Chris Christie 0.16%, Rick Santorum 0.08%, Lindsey Graham 0.08%, George Pataki 0.05%Opinion Savvy/Fox 10 Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 607 March 20, 2016 Donald Trump45.8% Ted Cruz33.3% John Kasich17.1% Unsure/Undecided 3.8%Merrill/Westgroup Research Margin of error: ± 5.4% Sample size: 300 March 7–11, 2016 Donald Trump31% Ted Cruz19% John Kasich10% Marco Rubio 10%, Unsure/Undecided 30%MBQF Consulting Margin of error: ± 3.57% Sample size: 751 March 8, 2016 Donald Trump37.3% Ted Cruz23.3% John Kasich14.6% Marco Rubio 11.6%, Unsure/Undecided 10.4%, Other 2.8%MBQF Consulting Margin of error: ± 3.61% Sample size: 736 February 22, 2016 Donald Trump34.8% Marco Rubio22.7% Ted Cruz14.1% Ben Carson 7.1%, Unsure/Undecided 21.3%MBQF Consulting Margin of error: ± 3.53% Sample size: 771 January 19, 2016 Donald Trump38.6% Ted Cruz15.6% Marco Rubio11.4% Ben Carson 7.1%, Jeb Bush 7.0%, Chris Christie 3.1%, Carly Fiorina 2.9%, John Kasich 2.9%, Mike Huckabee 1.4%, Rand Paul 0.4%, Unsure/undecided 10%Behavior Research CenterBehavior Research Center Margin of error: ± 6.7% Sample size: 226 October 24 – November 4, 2015 Ben Carson23% Donald Trump21% Marco Rubio15% Jeb Bush 8%, Ted Cruz 5%, All others (Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul, Kasich) 6%, Not sure yet 22%Silver Bullet LLCSilver Bullet LLC Margin of error: ± 3.77% Sample size: 677 August 3, 2015 Donald Trump33% Jeb Bush17% Scott Walker13% Ben Carson 10%, Ted Cruz 5%, John Kasich 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided/Refused 7%MBQF ConsultingMBQF Consulting Margin of error: ± 3.56 Sample size: 758July 29, 2015 Donald Trump26.5% Scott Walker 12.6% Jeb Bush 12.1% Ben Carson 8.7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Mike Huckabee 3.9%, Marco Rubio 3.9%, Rick Perry 2%, Rand Paul 1.7%, Chris Christie 1.7%, Undecided 21%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.7% Sample size: 300 May 1–3, 2015 Scott Walker16% Jeb Bush14% Marco Rubio14% Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 11%, Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 5%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rick Perry 2%, Undecided 12%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 403 February 28 – March 2, 2014 Ted Cruz16% Rand Paul14% Chris Christie12% Jeb Bush 11%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Paul Ryan 8%, Scott Walker 8%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Other/Undecided 13%
Arkansas
Winner: Donald Trump Primary date: March 1, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherPrimary resultsPrimary resultsMarch 1, 2016 Donald Trump32.79% Ted Cruz30.50% Marco Rubio24.80% Ben Carson 5.72%, John Kasich 3.72%, Mike Huckabee 1.17%, Jeb Bush 0.58%, Rand Paul 0.28%, Chris Christie 0.15%, Carly Fiorina 0.10%, Rick Santorum 0.07%, Lindsey Graham 0.06%, Bobby Jindal 0.04%SurveyMonkey Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 542February 22–29, 2016Donald Trump34% Ted Cruz27% Marco Rubio20% Ben Carson 8%, John Kasich 4%, Undecided 6%Talk Business/Hendrix Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 457February 4, 2016Ted Cruz27% Marco Rubio23%Donald Trump23% Ben Carson 11%, Carly Fiorina 4%, John Kasich 4%, Jeb Bush 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Don't Know 6%Opinion Savvy/Insider AdvantageOpinion Savvy/Insider Advantage Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 428 August 2, 2015Donald Trump25.5%Mike Huckabee21.4% Jeb Bush9.2% Ted Cruz 8.7%, Ben Carson 8.2%, Scott Walker 4.2%, Rand Paul 3.8%, John Kasich 3.1%, Marco Rubio 2.9%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Rick Perry 1.5%, Carly Fiorina 1.3%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 2.2%, Undecided 3.2%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University Margin of error: ± 7.5% Sample size: 171 September 20–23, 2014Mike Huckabee39.27% Rick Perry8.38% Ted Cruz7.33% Rand Paul 6.28%, Jeb Bush 4.71%, Chris Christie 4.71%, Marco Rubio 4.71%, Paul Ryan 3.14%, Bobby Jindal 2.62%, Rick Santorum 2.09%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.57%, Scott Walker 1.57%, John Kasich 1.05%, Other 2.09%, Undecided 10.47%Mitt Romney32.75%Mike Huckabee29.24% Ted Cruz6.43% Rick Perry 6.43%, Chris Christie 2.92%, Rand Paul 2.92%, Paul Ryan 2.34%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.75%, Marco Rubio 1.75%, Jeb Bush 1.17%, Rick Santorum 0.58%, Scott Walker 0.58%, Bobby Jindal 0%, John Kasich 0% Undecided 11.11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 479 August 1–3, 2014Mike Huckabee33% Ted Cruz12% Jeb Bush10% Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Scott Walker 6%, Bobby Jindal 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Paul Ryan 3%, Someone else/Not sure 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.4% Sample size: 342 April 25–27, 2014Mike Huckabee38% Ted Cruz14% Rand Paul13% Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Paul Ryan 3%, Cliven Bundy 2%, Someone else/Not sure 10%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies Margin of error: ± 3.35% Sample size: 857 April 14–15, 2014Mike Huckabee57% Rand Paul9% Jeb Bush8% Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Marco Rubio 5%, John Kasich 2%, Scott Walker 1%, Undecided 7%
California
Winner: Donald Trump Primary date: June 7, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherPrimary resultsPrimary results June 7, 2016 Donald Trump75.01% John Kasich11.41% Ted Cruz9.30% Ben Carson 3.55%, Jim Gilmore 0.72%Hoover/Golden State Poll Margin of error: ± % Sample size: 380 May 4–16, 2016Donald Trump 66% Ted Cruz11% John Kasich7%SurveyUSA/KABC/SCNG Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 529 April 27–30, 2016Donald Trump 54% Ted Cruz20% John Kasich16%Fox News Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 583 April 18–21, 2016Donald Trump 49% Ted Cruz22% John Kasich20% Undecided 7%, None 1%CBS News/YouGov Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 1012 April 13–15, 2016Donald Trump 49% Ted Cruz31% John Kasich16% Undecided 4%Sextant Strategies & Research/Capitol Weekly Margin of error: ± % Sample size: 1165 April 11–14, 2016Donald Trump 41% Ted Cruz23% John Kasich21% Undecided 15%Field Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 558 March 24–April 4, 2016Donald Trump 39% Ted Cruz32% John Kasich18% Other/Undecided 11%SurveyUSA Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 356 March 30–April 3, 2016Donald Trump 40% Ted Cruz32% John Kasich17% Undecided 12%USC/Los Angeles Times Margin of error: ± 5.5%