Statewide polls for the 2012 United States presidential election are as follows. The polls listed here, by state, are from 2009 to December 31, 2011, and provide early data on opinion polling between a possible Republican candidate against incumbent President Barack Obama.
Note that some states did not conduct polling before December 31, 2011.
Arizona
11 electoral votes (Republican in 2004) 55%–44% (Republican in 2008) 53%–45%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Herman Cain 42%4 500 RV ±4.4% Barack Obama 45% Newt Gingrich 45% Tied Barack Obama 43% Ron Paul 44%1 Barack Obama 47% Rick Perry 40%7 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 49%7BRC/Rocky Mountain PollBRC/Rocky Mountain Poll October 13–24, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Herman Cain 38%7 581 RV ±4.1% 45% Mitt Romney 40%5 44% Rick Perry 38%6Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 28 – May 1, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 40%7 623 RV ±3.9% 46% Mike Huckabee 44%2 49% Sarah Palin 38%11 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 48%4 Barack Obama 48% Donald Trump 36%12Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 46% Tied 599 RV ±4.0% Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 48%4 Barack Obama 49% Sarah Palin 41%8 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 49%6Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 18–21, 2009 Barack Obama 47% Sarah Palin 47% Tied 617 RV ±3.9% Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 49%4 43% Mitt Romney 50%7
Arkansas
6 electoral votes (Republican in 2004) 54%–45% (Republican in 2008) 59%–39%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorTalk Business/Hendrix CollegeTalk Business/Hendrix College September 15, 2011 Barack Obama 33.5% Mitt Romney 49.5%16 2,101 RV ±2.1%
California
55 electoral votes(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45% (Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorField Research Corporation (Field Poll)Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) November 15–27, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Mitt Romney 40%10 1,000 RV ±3.1% 55% Newt Gingrich 35%20Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 10–13, 2011 Barack Obama 60% Michele Bachmann 31%29 500 RV ±4.4% 61% Herman Cain 32%29 60% Newt Gingrich 34%26 57% Ron Paul 32%25 60% Rick Perry 31%29 57% Mitt Romney 36%21Survey USASurvey USA November 10, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 32%24 800 A ±3.5% 50% Mitt Romney 39%11Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) September 1–12, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 38%13 1,001 RV ±3.2% 54% Rick Perry 35%19L.A. Times/USC Dornsife/Greenberg Quinlan RosnerL.A. Times/USC Dornsife/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 17–28, 2011 Barack Obama 56% Rick Perry 32%24 1,408 RV ±4%57% Michele Bachmann 31%26 54% Mitt Romney 35%19Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011 Barack Obama 58% Newt Gingrich 34%24 892 RV ±3.3% 54% Mike Huckabee 39%15 62% Sarah Palin 31%31 56% Mitt Romney 36%20
Colorado
9 electoral votes (Republican in 2004) 52%–47% (Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling December 1–4, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 42%8 793 ±3.5% 52% Herman Cain 36%16 48% Ron Paul 39%9 52% Rick Perry 37%15 47% Mitt Romney 45%2Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 39%12 510 ±4.3% 51% Herman Cain 35%16 54% Sarah Palin 38%16 51% Rick Perry 38%13 48% Mitt Romney 41%7Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 Barack Obama 53% Newt Gingrich 39%14 517 ±4.3% 51% Mike Huckabee 42%9 55% Sarah Palin 36%19 47% Mitt Romney 41%6
Connecticut
7 electoral votes (Democratic in 2004) 54%–44% (Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 Barack Obama 55% Michele Bachmann 36%19 592 RV ±4.0% 54% Newt Gingrich 38%16 53% Rick Perry 41%12 47% Mitt Romney 45%2Quinnipiac University September 8–13, 2011 Barack Obama 52% Rick Perry 33%19 1,230 RV ±2.8% 49% Mitt Romney 36%13
Florida
29 electoral votes (Republican in 2004) 52%–47% (Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample size Margin of errorNBC News/Marist CollegeNBC News/Marist College December 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 41%7 2,119 ±2.1% 51% Newt Gingrich 39%12 49% Ron Paul 36%13Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University November 28 – December 5, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 45%3 1,226 ±2.8% Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 44%2Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 28 – December 1, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Mitt Romney 44%1 700 ±3.7% 50% Newt Gingrich 44%6 51% Herman Cain 37%14 46% Rick Perry 40%6 50% Ron Paul 38%12Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research November 17, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 46%4 500 LV ±4.5% Barack Obama 46% Herman Cain 37%9 45% Newt Gingrich 43%2Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University October 31 – November 7, 2011 Barack Obama 45% Herman Cain 41%4 1,185 RV ±2.9% 45% Newt Gingrich 42%3 46% Rick Perry 40%6 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney45%3Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University October 26–30, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Herman Cain 39%3 800 RV Not reported 46% Rick Perry 34%8 44% Ron Paul 32%12 45% Newt Gingrich 38%7 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 42%TiedNBC News/Marist CollegeNBC News/Marist College October 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Herman Cain 41%6 2,225 ±2.1% 47% Rick Perry 39%8 45% Mitt Romney 43%2Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 44%5 476 ±4.5% 50% Newt Gingrich 42%8 45% Ron Paul 44%1 50% Rick Perry 43%7 46% Mitt Romney 45%1Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University September 14–19, 2011 Barack Obama 44% Rick Perry 42%2 1,007 ±3.1% Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 47%7Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University August 1–2, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 38%12 743 RV ±3.6% 53% Sarah Palin 34%19 44% Rick Perry 39%5 Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 44%TiedQuinnipiac University July 27–31, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Michele Bachmann 36%14 674 RV ±3.8% 54% Sarah Palin 33%21 49% Rick Perry 36%13 46% Mitt Romney 41%5Sunshine State News/Voter Survey ServiceSunshine State News/Voter Survey Service July 5–7, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney46%4 1,000 LV ±3.10%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 40%9 848 RV ±3.4% 48% Herman Cain 37%11 52% Sarah Palin 40%12 48% Tim Pawlenty 40%8 47% Mitt Romney 43%4Suffolk University/7 NewsSuffolk University/7 News April 10–12, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Mitt Romney 43%1 600 RV ±4.0% Barack Obama 44% Mike Huckabee 41%3 41% Tim Pawlenty 28%13 45% Michele Bachmann 30%15 47% Newt Gingrich 36%11 52% Sarah Palin 34%18 49% Donald Trump 34%15 47% Haley Barbour 26%17 48% Ron Paul 30%18Ron Sachs Communications/Mason-Dixon Polling & ResearchRon Sachs Communications/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research April 4–7, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 48%5 800 RV ±3.5% 44% Mike Huckabee 49%5 Barack Obama 51% Sarah Palin 39%12 48% Donald Trump 40%8Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 42%8 500 RV ±4.4% 50% Mike Huckabee 43%7 52% Sarah Palin 39%13 46% Mitt Romney 44%2 48% Jeb Bush 45%3 48% Rudy Giuliani 42%6Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling December 17–20, 2010 Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 42%5 1,034 RV ±3.0% 49% Mike Huckabee 44%5 52% Sarah Palin 38%14 46% Mitt Romney 44%2 48% Marco Rubio 40%8
Georgia
16 electoral votes(Republican in 2004) 58%–41% (Republican in 2008) 52%–47%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorMason-Dixon Polling & ResearchMason-Dixon Polling & Research December 12–14, 2011 Barack Obama 41% Newt Gingrich 50%9 625 ±4.0% 38% Mitt Romney 55%17SurveyUSASurveyUSA December 6–7, 2011 Barack Obama 42% Newt Gingrich 48%6 1,176 ±2.9% 42% Mitt Romney 49%7Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 31 – April 3, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Newt Gingrich 45%1 790 RV ±3.5% Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 48%3 Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 43%5 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 46%3 Barack Obama 44% Herman Cain 39%5
Hawaii
4 electoral votes (Democratic in 2004) 54%–45% (Democratic in 2008) 72%–27%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011 Barack Obama 64% Michele Bachmann 28%36 568 RV ±4.1% 63% Herman Cain 30%33 64% Newt Gingrich 27%37 63% Rick Perry 28%35 59% Mitt Romney 32%27
Illinois
20 electoral votes (Democratic in 2004) 55%–45% (Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorPaul Simon Public Policy Institute (Southern Illinois University)Paul Simon Public Policy Institute (Southern Illinois University)October 11–16, 2011 Barack Obama 46.1% Mitt Romney 38.5%7.6 1,000 RV ±3% 49.3% Ron Paul 30.3%19
Iowa
6 electoral votes (Republican in 2004) 50%–49% (Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%
Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorNBC News/Marist CollegeNBC News/Marist College November 27–29, 2011 Barack Obama 48% Rick Perry 37%11 1,393 ±2.6% 46% Mitt Romney 39%7 54% Michele Bachmann 31%23 47% Newt Gingrich 37%10 50% Herman Cain 32%18 Barack Obama 42% Ron Paul 42%TiedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 7–10, 2011 Barack Obama 49% Michele Bachmann 39%10 749 RV ±3.6% 47% Herman Cain 41%6 50% Newt Gingrich 39%11 47% Ron Paul 40%7 49% Rick Perry 39%10 46% Mitt Romney 42%4NBC News/Marist CollegeNBC News/Marist College October 3–5, 2011 Barack Obama 46% Rick Perry 37%9 2,836 RV ±1.8% 43% Mitt Romney 40%3Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 19–21, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Michele Bachmann 34%17 798 RV ±3.5% 51% Herman Cain 33%18 54% Sarah Palin 33%21 51% Rick Perry 38%13 49% Mitt Romney 39%10Every Child Matters Fund/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research July 5–7, 2011 Barack Obama 47% Michele Bachmann 46%1 629 LV ±3.9% Barack Obama 44% Mitt Romney 47%3Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 27–30, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Herman Cain 32%18 1,387 RV ±2.6% 54% Newt Gingrich 33%21 55% Sarah Palin 35%20 49% Tim Pawlenty 37%12 49% Mitt Romney 40%9Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 15–17, 2011 Barack Obama 50% Newt Gingrich 39%11 1,109 RV ±2.9% Barack Obama 45% Mike Huckabee 45%Tied Barack Obama 53% Sarah Palin 36%17 45% Mitt Romney 41%4 51% Donald Trump 35%16Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 7–9, 2011 Barack Obama 51% Newt Gingrich 38%13 1,077 RV ±3.0% 47% Mike Huckabee 43%4 53% Sarah Palin 37%16 47% Mitt Romney 41%6
Kansas
6 electoral votes (Republican in 2004) 62%–37% (Republican in 2008) 57%–42% Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorKWCH-TV Wichita/Survey USAKWCH-TV Wichita/Survey USA November 10, 2011 Barack Obama 35% Newt Gingrich 52%17 800 RV ±3.5% Barack Obama 31% Mitt Romney 56%25
Kentucky
8 electoral votes (Republican in 2004) 60%–40% (Republican in 2008) 57%–41% Poll source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead margin Sample Size Margin of errorPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 25–28, 2011 Barack Obama 43% Michele Bachmann 46% 3 600 RV ±4.0% Barack Obama 47% Newt Gingrich 44% 3 Barack Obama 48% Sarah Palin 44% 4 Barack Obama 42% Rick Perry 49% 7 Barack Obama 40% Mitt Romney 48% 8
Louisiana
8 electoral votes (Republican in 2004) 57%–42% (Republican in 2008) 59%–40%