This article is a list of opinion polls that have been taken for the 2012 South Korean presidential election. It is divided into polls for the presidential election itself, and polls for the primaries of the two main parties, Saenuri and the Democratic United Party. Two-way polls are used to demonstrate the popularity of one candidate with respect to the other, but the election itself will have no run-off round and will be held under a system of First Past the Post. The polls are ordered by date, with the newest at the top.
General election
Two-candidate race
Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo
Poll source Date Sample size Margin Park (%)Saenuri Ahn (%)Independent Hankyoreh/Korea Society Opinion Institute 27–28 July 2012 1,000 44.9 48.8 3.9 Gallup 23–27 July 2012 1,520 42 42 0 Realmeter 23–27 July 2012 3,750 44.2 48.4 4.2 JoongAng Ilbo 19–21 July 2012 2,000 49.3 45.2 4.1 Realmeter 16–20 July 2012 3,750 47.7 44.8 2.9 OhMyNews/Research View 16–17 July 2012 1,000 48.7 46.5 2.2 Realmeter 25–29 June 2012 3,750 49.0 43.8 5.2 Realmeter 18–22 June 2012 3,750 49.2 44.3 4.9 Realmeter 29 May – 1 June 2012 3,000 48.6 45.6 3.0 Hankyoreh/Korea Society Opinion Institute 26–27 May 2012 800 53.5 43.7 9.8 Realmeter 21–25 May 2012 3,750 48.5 44.7 3.8 JoongAng Ilbo 15 May 2012 910 51.9 43.0 8.9 Realmeter 14–18 May 2012 3,750 48.8 43.9 4.9 Realmeter 7–11 May 2012 3,750 47.6 45.6 2.0 Realmeter 7–8 May 2012 1,500 51.3 40.7 10.6Chosun Ilbo / Media Research 2–6 May 2012 1,000 47.2 42.1 5.1 Realmeter 30 Apr – 4 May 2012 3,000 47.9 45.7 2.2 Gallup 30 Apr – 4 May 2012 1,272 47.0 37.0 10.0 Realmeter 23–27 April 2012 3,750 47.1 46.9 0.2 Realmeter 16–20 April 2012 3,750 49.2 45.0 4.2 Realmeter 12–13 April 2012 1,500 47.9 44.8 3.1 JoongAng Ilbo / Gallup 박근혜 45.1% vs 안철수 35.9% 12–13 April 2012 800 45.1 35.9 9.2 Realmeter 6–10 February 2012 3,750 41.3 49.5 8.2 Realmeter 30 Jan – 3 Feb 2012 3,750 40.4 51.5 11.1
Park Geun-hye vs. Kim Doo-kwan
Poll source Date Sample size Margin Park (%)Saenuri Kim (%)DUP JoongAng Ilbo 19–21 July 2012 2,000 68.5 20.6 47.9
Park Geun-hye vs. Moon Jae-in
Poll source Date Sample size Margin Park (%)Saenuri Moon (%)DUP JoongAng Ilbo 19–21 July 2012 2,000 56.6 35.0 11.6 OhMyNews/Research View 16–17 July 2012 1,000 50.8 41.0 9.8 Realmeter 29 May – 1 Jun 2012 3,000 52.5 38.6 13.9 Hankyoreh /Korea Society Opinion Institute 26–27 May 2012 61.0 33.5 27.5 Realmeter 21–25 May 2012 3,750 52.6 37.9 14.7 JoongAng Ilbo 15 May 2012 910 57.6 33.3 24.3 Realmeter 14–18 May 2012 3,750 52.0 37.5 14.5 Realmeter 7–11 May 2012 3,750 51.9 38.2 13.7 Realmeter 7–8 May 2012 1,500 55.7 36.3 19.4 Realmeter 30 Apr – 4 May 2012 3,000 52.4 38.0 14.4 Realmeter 23–27 April 2012 3,750 50.9 40.3 10.6 Realmeter 6–10 February 2012 3,750 44.3 43.0 1.3 Realmeter 30 Jan – 3 Feb 2012 3,750 44.4 44.9 0.5 Donga Ilbo 24 January 2012 46.7 38.4 8.3
Park Geun-hye vs. Sohn Hak-kyu
Poll source Date Sample size Margin Park (%)Saenuri Sohn (%)DUP JoongAng Ilbo 19–21 July 2012 2,000 67.4 23.9 43.5
Multiple-candidate race
Candidate AhnCheol-soo ChungDong-young ChungMong-joon ChungSye-kyun ChungUn-chan KimDoo-kwan KimMoon-soo LeeHoi-chang MoonJae-in ParkGeun-hye RhyuSi-min SohnHak-kyu Realmeter29 May – 1 Jun 2012 22.1% 1.7% 2.1% – – 2.2% 3.2% 2.4% 13.8% 40.4% 1.7% 3.6% Korea Society Opinion Institute26–27 May 2012 22.6% 1.5% 2.4% – – 1.7% 1.9% – 11.1% 43.0% 2.7% 1.9% Realmeter21–25 May 2012 19.9% 2.2% 3.1% 0.7% 1.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.1% 13.7% 40.5% 3.2% 3.0% JoongAng Ilbo15 May 2012 23.3% 1.1% 2.5% – – 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 9.9% 39.3% 1.1% 2.0% Realmeter14–18 May 2012 20.7% 1.8% 2.2% 1.0% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 1.4% 13.4% 41.9% 2.4% 3.2% Realmeter7–11 May 2012 23.8% 1.7% 2.9% – 1.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 12.3% 40.3% 2.0% 3.4% Media Research1–6 May 2012 22.0% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% 9.6% 35.8% 1.5% 1.5% Realmeter30 Apr – 4 May 2012 22.2% 2.3% 2.8% – 1.0% 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% 13.5% 40.0% 2.1% 3.2% Realmeter23–27 Apr 2012 24.0% 1.3% 2.4% – 0.9% 2.0% 2.8% 1.8% 13.1% 40.3% 2.5% 3.6% Korea Society Opinion Institute21 April 2012 23.8% 0.9% 1.3% – – 0.6% 2.6% 0.9% 11.1% 40.6% 1.2% 1.6% Realmeter16–20 Apr 2012 23.9% 1.3% 1.8% – 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 13.5% 42.1% 2.6% 3.5% Realmeter12–13 Apr 2012 20.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.1% 1.3% – 1.5% 2.4% 16.5% 42.5% 2.3% 3.2% Realmeter2–6 Apr 2012 18.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.3% 2.5% – 2.7% 1.9% 19.1% 36.6% 3.1% 3.2% Korea Society Opinion Institute31 March 2012 17.2% 2.1% 1.1% – – 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.3% 36.2% 1.8% 2.4% Realmeter6–10 Feb 2012 20.8% 2.4% 2.5% 0.8% 2.6% – 2.8% 2.6% 19.4% 31.3% 3.1% 3.1% Realmeter30 Jan – 3 Feb 2012 21.1% – – – – – 3.2% – 19.3% 31.2% 3.6% 4.7%
Saenuri primary
Poll source Date Sample size Ahn Sang-soo Chung Mong-joon Chung Un-chan Kim Moon-soo Lee Jae-oh Park Geun-hye Yim Tae-hee Hankyoreh/Korea Society Opinion Institute 21 April 2012 800 – 5.2% 0.4% 3.1% 0.2% 83.4% –
DUP primary
Poll source Date Sample size Ahn Cheol-soo Chung Dong-young Chung Sye-kyun Kim Doo-kwan Moon Jae-in Sohn Hak-kyu Hankyoreh/Korea Society Opinion Institute 21 April 2012 800 2.3% 5.4% 2.4% 3.6% 43.4% 15.5%
References