2012 Schleswig-Holstein state election

The 2012 Schleswig-Holstein state election was held on 6 May 2012 to elect the members of the Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union and Free Democratic Party (FDP) was defeated. Though the CDU remained the largest party, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) negotiated a coalition with The Greens and the South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW). This was dubbed the "Danish traffic light" or "Namibia coalition". SPD leader Torsten Albig was subsequently elected Minister-President by the Landtag.

Background After the 2009 state election, the CDU formed a coalition with the FDP under Minister-President Peter Harry Carstensen. Due to ambiguity and complications with the electoral law, the election result was the subject of a legal challenge by the Greens, SSW, and The Left. In August 2010, the state Constitutional Court ruled that the electoral law was unconstitutional. The court mandated that a new electoral law be legislated within six months and that new elections be held by September 2012, two years ahead of schedule.

Minister-President Carstensen had stated his intention to retire at the next election. The CDU therefore needed to pick a candidate to succeed him as Minister-President if they won the election. At a party conference in May 2011, they chose Christian von Boetticher, incumbent deputy Minister-President and leader of the CDU parliamentary group. In August, however, von Boetticher resigned these positions after it was revealed that he had been involved in an intimate relationship with a 16-year-old girl as recently as 2010. Two days later, the CDU announced that Minister of Science, Economic Affairs and Transport Jost de Jager had been nominated as their new candidate for Minister-President.

Parties The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein. Name Ideology Leader(s) 2009 result Votes (%) Seats CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christian democracy Jost de Jager 31.5% SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Torsten Albig 25.4% FDP Free Democratic Party Classical liberalism Wolfgang Kubicki 14.9% Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Robert Habeck 12.4% Linke The Left Democratic socialism Antje Jansen 6.0% SSW South Schleswig Voters' Association Danish and Frisian minority interests Anke Spoorendonk 4.3%

Opinion polling Party polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize CDU SPD FDP Grüne Linke SSW Piraten Others Lead 2012 state election 6 May 2012 – 30.8 30.4 8.2 13.2 2.3 4.6 8.2 2.4 0.4 GMS 28 Apr–1 May 2012 1,002 32 33 6 12 2 4 8 3 1 Infratest dimap 24–26 Apr 2012 1,001 30 32 6 13 2.5 4.5 9 3 2 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 23–26 Apr 2012 1,003 31 31 7 12.5 2.5 4 9 3 Tie Infratest dimap 12–17 Apr 2012 1,000 31 32 5 13 2 4 10 3 1 Infratest dimap 10–11 Apr 2012 1,000 32 32 4 12 3 4 11 2 Tie Infratest dimap 22–27 Mar 2012 1,000 34 32 4 15 4 4 5 2 2 dimap 9–13 Mar 2012 1,003 34 33 4 15 3 4 5 ? 1 Forsa March 2012 ? 35 35 2 13 3 4 5 ? Tie Infratest dimap 13–16 Feb 2012 1,000 33 33 3 16 3 3 5 4 Tie Emnid 17–19 Jan 2012 1,000 34 32 4 15 3 3 7 2 2 Forsa 15–17 Nov 2011 1,002 33 32 3 17 3 3 6 3 1 Infratest dimap 26–27 Sep 2011 1,000 30 34 3 21 2 3 4 3 4 Forsa 15 Aug 2011 752 30 32 4 19 4 4 – 7 2 Infratest dimap 13–16 May 2011 1,000 33 31 4 22 2 4 1 3 2 Forsa 31 Aug–1 Sep 2010 751 31 31 7 18 5 5 – 3 Tie Infratest dimap 30–31 Aug 2010 1,001 32 32 5 19 4 4 – 4 Tie IfM Leipzig 29–31 Mar 2010 823 31 22 12 20 6 4 – 5 9 2009 state election 27 September 2009 – 31.5 25.4 14.9 12.4 6.0 4.3 1.8 3.6 6.1

Minister-President polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Lead CDU SPD Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 27 Apr 2012 29 44 15 Infratest dimap 26 Apr 2012 27 49 22 Infratest dimap 19 Apr 2012 32 56 24 Infratest dimap 12 Apr 2012 31 53 22 Infratest dimap 29 Mar 2012 33 49 26 Infratest dimap 17 Feb 2012 29 45 16 Infratest dimap 28 Sep 2011 27 45 18 Forsa 17 Aug 2011 30 34 4

Election result

The SPD recovered some of the voteshare it had lost in the 2009 election while the CDU stagnated. This led to a very close result, with both parties winning 22 seats, but the CDU leading with 30.8% of the vote to the SPD's 30.4%. On paper, the FDP was the biggest loser of the election, almost halving its voteshare from its impressive showing in 2009. However, compared to the national trend, the Schleswig-Holstein result was an unexpected success; and until April, state polling had predicted that the FDP would lose all its seats. The Greens marginally improved their performance compared to 2009. The Left fared poorly, losing all its seats after only 3 years in the Landtag. The Pirate Party won 8.2%, entering the Landtag for the first time. This came after successes in the 2011 Berlin state election and 2012 Saarland state election in the preceding months. The SSW achieved its best result since 1950 with 4.6%.

Outcome The outgoing CDU–FDP government lost its majority, winning just 28 of the 35 seats needed for a majority. The SPD–Green bloc also fell short with 32 seats. CDU candidate Jost de Jager invited both the FDP and Greens to discuss a potential coalition, but neither party accepted. The SPD, Greens, and SSW began discussions for forming a government together. This was dubbed the "Danish traffic light", a play on the red-yellow-green "traffic light coalition", with the "yellow" FDP substituted for the "Danish" SSW. It would have a narrow, one-seat majority. This same arrangement had been attempted after the 2005 state election, but unexpectedly failed when one of the government members abstained. Pirate Party leader Torge Schmidt suggested that his party could lend their support to the Danish traffic light, though this never came to fruition.

Coalition talks succeeded, and the Landtag voted to confirm Torsten Albig as the new Minister-President. The government received 37 votes, meaning that at least two opposition members voted in favour.

References

2012 Schleswig-Holstein state election

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