The 2004 Australian federal election was held on Saturday 9 October 2004 and it was the Howard government's opportunity to secure its fourth term of government. The Government consisting of the conservative coalition Liberal Party and National Party headed by John Howard and John Anderson respectively were opposed by Mark Latham and the Labor Party.
The Howard government would be returned for its fourth term, seeing major gains nationwide. It was able to increase its majority by 10 seats, from 14 to 24, and a secured an increased margin in seats it already held. The Coalition finished the election with 87 seats, to Labor's 60. The remaining seats were held by independents.
The election post-mortem would reveal that there had been a large miscalculation by the Australian Labor Party, pollsters, and media alike. What was predicted to be a close election, possibly even a Labor win by many, resulted in a win for the Coalition and a decline in the primary vote for the Labor Party.
The following table shows results for the Australian House of Representatives at the 2004 federal election, Coalition 87, Australian Labor Party 60, with three independents.
Lead up to the election In 2001, John Howard's Coalition government narrowly beat the Labor Party in what was deemed by many as an "unwinnable" election for the government. Issues of national security such as the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Tampa refugee crisis, allowed the government to turn its political fortunes around and secure a gain of two seats in the House of Representatives. The years following 2001 saw Australia controversially engage in the Iraq War as a member of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ along with the United States and United Kingdom. This war was seen by many globally as a failure and it was predicted that the Howard government could be defeated due to the war's unpopularity. Another western democracy, Spain, had seen its pro-Iraq war government defeated in an election earlier that year and it was speculated that the Australian government might suffer the same fate.
On the 29th of August 2004, the prime minister announced that a federal election would be held on October 9, 2004. This was an unusual time to announce an election, many thought the ongoing Athens Olympic Games gathering most of the public's attention. It was also an unusually long election campaign at 6 weeks. Many pundits predicted a tight race with Michelle Grattan stating on the day of the announcement that the campaign would be "an unpredictable and exciting election in which neither leader starts with a decisive break, either could take the prize, and absolutely anything could happen in between". However, the Government was campaigning from a strong position politically.
Despite the poignancy of the Iraq War as an issue, issues surrounding the economy such as interest rates, the size of the deficit, taxation and unemployment dominated the political agenda during the election campaign. The sale of Telstra was also an influential topic. The Howard government had delivered several budget surpluses and Australian's were enjoying a period of strong economic growth and low unemployment. The government afforded many tax breaks and concessions to middle-income earners, which despite not being revolutionary policy, bought them favour with large sections of the electorate. Add to this that the Labor Party had found itself in the political wilderness since 2001, spending much of its time between 2001 and 2004 under Simon Crean who suffered consistently poor polling, and the Howard government looked as though it had a strong grip on power. Labor eventually switched leaders in early 2004 to allow itself a better chance at the election. Crean resigned to allow Mark Latham to assume the position of leader in 2003 in a contested ballot against Kim Beazley.
Redistributions in the Lower House
Victoria In 2002-03 there was a significant redistribution of two Victorian seats. The electorate of McMillan, a marginal Labor electorate was redistributed to become a nominally Liberal seat. The electorate of Gippsland, a seat seen as a fairly safe for the National Party was redistributed to become more marginal.
South Australia In 2003, the Australian Electoral Commission determined that South Australia would lose a seat and Queensland would gain a seat. It was decided that the electorate of Bonython would be absorbed into the electorate of Wakefield, drastically changing the demographics of this electorate in the process. It was unknown what the change would yield in terms of election results.
Queensland Queensland's rising population saw it become entitled to an additional seat. This new seat would come in the form of an Eastern Brisbane electorate, Bonner. Bonner was a nominally Liberal electorate that took territory from the electorate of Bowman, a Labor seat. This redistribution would see the seat become nominally Liberal.
Australia
+ House of Representatives (IRV) — Turnout 94.69% (CV) — Informal 5.18% Party Votes % Swing Seats Change 4,741,458 40.47 +3.39 74 6 690,275 5.89 +0.28 12 1 39,855 0.34 +0.02 1 Liberal–National coalition 5,471,588 46.71 +3.79 87 5 4,409,117 37.64 –0.20 60 5 841,734 7.19 +2.23 0 235,315 2.01 +2.01 144,832 1.24 –4.17 139,956 1.19 –3.15 Total 11,715,132 150 Two-party-preferred vote Coalition 6,179,130 52.74 +1.79 87 5 5,536,002 47.26 –1.79 60 5Invalid/blank votes 639,851 5.18 +0.36 Registered voters/turnout 13,098,461 94.32 Source: Commonwealth Election 2004
States New South Wales
+Turnout 94.70% (CV) — Informal 6.12% Party Votes % Swing Seats Change 1,391,511 36.16 +2.58 21 353,670 9.19 –0.03 6 1 Liberal–National coalition 1,745,181 45.34 +2.54 27 1 1,412,418 36.70 +0.25 21 1 311,369 8.09 3.34 0 53,881 1.40 -3.37 47,132 1.22 0.00 41,072 1.07 -3.17 29,621 0.77 0.77 11,500 0.30 0.15 8,165 0.21 0.21 7,229 0.19 0.06 4,415 0.11 0.11 3,775 0.10 -0.02 3,505 0.09 0.09 3,490 0.09 -0.07 Ex-Service, Service and Veterans 3,108 0.08 0.08 2,824 0.07 0.07 2,516 0.07 0.05 Lower Excise Fuel and Beer 2,007 0.05 -0.03 1,132 0.03 0.01 0,341 0.01 0.01 s 154,013 4.00 -0.06 2 Total 4,099,501 50 Two-party-preferred vote Liberal/National Coalition 1,998,699 51.93 +0.27 27 1 1,849,995 48.07 –0.27 21 1Invalid/blank votes 250,807 6.12 +0.25 Registered voters/turnout 4,329,115 94.70 Source: AEC Tally Room Four seats changed hands in NSW during this election, with the Liberal Party experiencing a primary vote of 36.2%, one of its strongest tally's since the 1975 poll and at the expense of the Labor Party. The opposition lost ground in the outer suburbs of Sydney, areas which it once considered to be very strong for its vote. The Nationals' vote remained steady but the Greens' vote increased by 3.3%, the party's second best result in the state.
Victoria
+Turnout 94.84% (CV) — Informal 5.16% Party Votes % Swing Seats Change 1,302,038 43.24 +4.17 16 105,557 3.51 +0.43 2 Liberal–National coalition 1,302,038 46.75 +4.60 18 1,217,921 40.45 –1.20 19 224,423 7.45 +1.55 71,735 2.38 +2.38 32,363 1.07 –5.18 14,010 0.47 +0.24 4,119 0.14 –1.14 3,694 0.12 0.12 1,372 0.05 0.05 573 0.02 -0.15 Ex-Service, Service and Veterans 527 0.02 0.02 459 0.02 -0.19 Aged and Disability Pensioners Party 285 0.01 0.01 s 32,073 1.07 -0.99 Total 3,139,881 37 Two-party-preferred vote Liberal/National Coalition 1,535,650 51.00 +3.14 18 1,475,519 49.00 –3.14 19 Invalid/blank votes 128,712 4.10 +0.12 Registered voters/turnout 3,309,800 94.87 Source: AEC Tally Room Despite winning the most seats, Labor suffered its lowest primary vote share in the state since 1990. The Liberal Party performed strongly in Victoria recording their best results in the state since the election of 1954 with 43.2% of the primary vote. The Nationals and Greens vote held steady in the state, while the Australian Democrat vote fell sharply to 1.1%.
Queensland
+Turnout 94.84% (CV) — Informal 5.16% Party Votes % Swing Seats Change 867,289 39.41 + 2.95 17 1 214,522 9.75 +0.61 4 Liberal/National Coalition 1,081,811 49.15 +3.55 21 1 765,507 34.78 +0.08 6 1 111,314 5.06 +1.57 80,820 3.67 +3.67 43,619 1.98 –5.09 30,255 1.37 –2.94 7,872 0.36 + 0.22 3,990 0.18 +0.18 2,824 0.13 +0.13 1,251 0.06 +0.06 787 0.04 –0.01 Ex-Service, Service and Veterans 734 0.03 +0.03 s 70,104 3.18 –1.45 Total 2,320,717 28 Two-party-preferred vote Liberal/National Coalition 1,256,533 57.09 +2.23 21 1 944,355 42.91 –2.23 6 1Invalid/blank votes 119,829 5.16 +0.33 Registered voters/turnout 2,475,611 93.74 Source: AEC Tally Room The Labor Party returned poor polling in the state, especially considering it was enjoying strong results at a state level through to 2004. Indeed, Labor recorded some of its lowest primary vote numbers in this state since the party's foundation in this election, while the Liberal party recorded some of its strongest. Queensland was the poorest state electorally for the Greens, while One Nation also suffered a 5.1% reduction in their primary vote.
Western Australia
+Turnout 92.79% (CV) — Informal 5.32% Party Votes % Swing Seats Change 528,016 48.13 + 6.74 10 2 6,895 0.63 –0.39 Liberal–National coalition 534,911 48.76 +6.35 10 2 381,200 34.75 –2.39 5 2 84,100 7.67 + 1.68 27,650 2.52 –3.75 24,650 2.25 +1.07 16,298 1.49 –3.17 6,539 0.60 +0.33 2,619 0.24 +0.24 2,625 0.24 +0.25 1,620 0.15 +0.15 s 14,861 1.35 + 0.82 Total 1,158,687 15 Two-party-preferred vote Liberal/National Coalition 607,829 55.40 + 3.78 10 2 489,244 44.60 –3.78 5 2Invalid/blank votes 61,614 5.32 +0.40 Registered voters/turnout 1,248,732 92.79 Source: AEC Tally Room Western Australia saw two seats change hands. The Liberal vote has always been considered strong in this state. It was made stronger in this election due to Kim Beazley's absence as Labor leader. Beazley, a native Western Australian was seen to bolster Labor's poll numbers when he stood in 1998 and 2001. This and the unpopular Labor state Geoff Gallop government of the time saw Labor's polling numbers slide to its lowest since 1977.
South Australia
+Turnout 94.79% (CV) — Informal 5.56% Party Votes % Swing Seats Change 446,372 47.40 + 1.49 8 1 9,611 1.02 +1.02 0 Liberal–National coalition 455,983 48.42 +2.52 8 1 346,071 36.75 + 3.01 3 51,200 5.44 +1.80 17,682 1.88 –8.66 10,687 1.13 –3.62 40,547 4.31 +4.31 s 19,204 2.04 +1.16 Total 997,102 11 1 Two-party-preferred vote Liberal/National Coalition 511,845 54.36 +0.28 8 1 429,799 45.64 –0.28 3 Invalid/blank votes 55,458 5.56 +0.22 Registered voters/turnout 1,051,923 94.79 Source: AEC Tally Room The redistribution saw South Australia lose one seat. This election saw four seats change hands; however, there was no net change in party representation. The Liberal vote rose slightly, as did Labor's (3.1% since 2001). While the Greens recorded a result of 5.4%.
Tasmania
+Turnout 95.64% (CV) — Informal 3.59% Party Votes % Swing Seats Change 140,918 44.58 –2.59 3 2 132,724 41.98 +4.88 2 2 31,242 9.88 +2.07 8,973 2.84 +2.84 1,158 0.37 +0.32 1,108 0.35 +0.35 Total 316,123 5 Two-party-preferred vote 171,294 54.19 –3.54 3 2 Liberal/National Coalition 144,829 45.81 +3.54 2 2 Labor to Liberal: Bass Braddon
Tasmania bucked the national trend against Labor. The party still lost two seats but maintained a primary vote of 44.6%. The Liberal party saw its primary vote jump 5.9% to 42.0%, and the Greens saw their strongest nationwide results capturing 9.9% of the vote.
Territories
Australian Capital Territory
+Turnout 95.85% (CV) — Informal 2.31% Party Votes % Swing Seats Change 104,836 50.2 +3.3 2 73,508 35.2 +2.8 0 22,440 10.8 +3.7 5,010 2.4 –5.6 2,067 1.0 +1.0 765 0.4 +0.4 Total 208,626 2 Two-party-preferred vote 61.1 –1.4 2 38.9 +1.4 0
Northern Territory