National Response Scenario Number One is the United States federal government's planned response to a small scale nuclear attack. It is one of the National Response Scenarios developed by the United States Department of Homeland Security, considered the most likely of fifteen emergency scenarios to impact the United States. The Scenarios are related to the National Response Framework (NRF), which describes the structures and mechanisms of a response and the National Incident Management System (NIMS) that gives a framework to orchestrate emergency management. The scenario anticipates terrorists detonating a single, 10 kiloton weapon (about two-thirds the size of the Hiroshima bomb) in a major city, as opposed to a full-scale nuclear war, in which a foreign power such as Russia or China would detonate hundreds or thousands of weapons.
The guidelines and the implementation framework were developed after the September 11 attacks and the Hurricane Katrina disaster.
The nuclear threat Nuclear weapons materials on the black market are a global concern, and there is concern about the possible detonation of a small, crude nuclear weapon by a terrorist group in a major city, with significant loss of life and property.
President Barack Obama has reviewed Homeland Security policy and concluded that "attacks using improvised nuclear devices [...] pose a serious and increasing national security risk." In their presidential contest, President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry both agreed that the most serious danger facing the United States is the possibility that terrorists could obtain a nuclear bomb. Most nuclear-weapon analysts agree that "building such a device would pose few technological challenges to reasonably competent terrorists.” The main barrier is acquiring highly enriched uranium.
Despite a number of claims, there is no credible evidence that any terrorist group has yet succeeded in obtaining a nuclear bomb or the materials needed to make one. In 2004, Graham Allison, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense during the Clinton administration, wrote that "on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on America in the decade ahead is more likely than not." Also in 2004, Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information stated: "I wouldn't be at all surprised if nuclear weapons are used over the next 15 or 20 years, first and foremost by a terrorist group that gets its hands on a Russian nuclear weapon or a Pakistani nuclear weapon." In 2006, Robert Gallucci of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service estimated that "it is more likely than not that al-Qaeda or one of its affiliates will detonate a nuclear weapon in a U.S. city within the next five to ten years."
The scenario The response timeline will begin the instant the detonation occurs. In this scenario, a terrorist cell creates a nuclear device using highly enriched uranium (HEU) using nuclear device components that are smuggled into the United States. The 10-kiloton nuclear device would most likely be assembled near a large U.S. city. The cities that would most likely be attacked are Washington, New York City and Los Angeles. Using a van or SUV, the device could easily be delivered to the heart of a city and detonated. The effects and response planning from a nuclear blast are determined using statics from Washington, the most likely target. An estimated 5,000 casualties would be killed within .25 of a second after detonation and within 15 seconds an estimated 30,000 casualties would result from the detonation. Estimated casualties could reach 100,000 after 24 hours. Buildings within three miles are severely damaged. The contaminated area would be roughly 3,000 square miles depending on environmental factors such as weather and terrain. An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) damages much of electronic devices, power grids and communication systems in the surrounding area.
Effects The detonation will cause many secondary hazards. The intense heat of a nuclear explosion would produce fires throughout the immediate blast zone. Damaged buildings, downed power and phone lines, broken gas lines and water mains, and weakened bridges and tunnels are hazardous conditions that will need to be assessed depending on the type of industries present. For example, chemical or petroleum production, industrial storage facilities, and manufacturing operations could cause significant releases of hazardous materials. Environmental considerations such as nearby bodies of water, prevailing winds and the general type of terrain have to be considered for an emergency response and evacuation. An explosion in a large city would result in an estimated 450,000 to 700,000 displaced persons flooding into nearby states. The country's economic impact would be hundreds of billions of dollars with the estimated time of recovery being decades. Furthermore, the electronic magnetic pulse (EMP), a high-voltage spike that radiates out from the detonation site, can disrupt the communication networks and electronic equipment within a 3-mile range from a 10-kiloton ground blast. The electrical power grid is likely to be damaged by the destruction of substations, power production facilities and distribution installations. The grid damage may cause power outages over wide areas and over several states. These outages should be repaired within several days or weeks. Communication systems would suffer similar damage and will likely be repaired within similar time frames. There will likely be significant damage to general public support infrastructures. These systems include transportation such as air, water, rail, highway, power generation and distribution facilities and food and fuel distribution points. There will be safety concerns about the reliability of many structures like dams, levees, nuclear power plants, hazardous material storage facilities and still standing tall buildings all of which could become additional hazards. Structures may be damaged that are used to provide essential services such as hospitals, schools, police and fire departments.
Non-radioactive injuries from the blast itself would result from the human body being thrown and from impacts with objects. The detonation would produce intense heat, causing burns to exposed skin and eyes. The prompt nuclear radiation created from the initial explosion radiation may expose unprotected people to large gamma ray or neutron doses. Radioactive fallout in the form of a large dust cloud would begin within two hours after the explosion and would dissipate within minutes to weeks. The radiation from the fallout could contaminate an area for many years. The largest radiation concerns following an incident will be the radioactive material deposited on the ground, as people are evacuated from the fallout areas. These effects are likely to have significantly larger impacts on the population than internal doses, which tend to expose the body to relatively small radiation doses over a long period of time, producing different effects than large radiation doses received during a short period of time. As the distance from ground zero increases to twelve miles, injuries due to radiation exposure will decrease, and lower level contamination, evacuation, and sheltering issues will become the major concern and distances greater than 150 miles from ground zero of a nuclear detonation, acute health concerns will not become a significant issue.
Long-term consequences Years or even decades after an explosion, there will still be health concerns such as cancers in the exposed population. The number of these cancers will likely run into the thousands and cause a large social and financial cost. Historically, decontamination of sites involves the removal of all affected material, so most buildings in the immediate downwind fallout path will likely have to be destroyed in the decontamination effort. As the distance from the detonation site increases, the contamination level will decrease but buildings that have not been destroyed will require decontamination and will take years at a high financial cost at times becoming more expensive than the building itself. Roughly 3,000 square miles of land will have to undergo decontamination requiring decades and billions of dollars to complete. Service disruption will not be restored for years because the affected area will not be returned to use until the decontamination is complete and structures rebuilt. The city water supply is unlikely to become substantially contaminated with radiation by way of water main breaks, but is likely to suffer from small amounts of radiation and large amounts of debris. Replacement of lost private property and goods could add billions to the cost.
A national recession will most likely result from the attack. The volume of contaminated material that will be removed will overwhelm national hazardous waste disposal facilities and will severely challenge the nation's ability to transport material. This effort will be the most expensive and time-consuming part of recovery and will likely cost many billions of dollars and take many years.
Call for help In response a governor can request Federal assistance, including assistance under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Stafford Act), when local and State capabilities have been determined insufficient to handle the emergency and is triggered by a Presidential declaration of a major disaster or emergency. Under this directive assistance such as funding, resources, and critical services, will be provided but will always respect the sovereignty of local, tribal, and State governments while giving assistance. Furthermore, under Homeland Security Presidential Directive 5 four criteria exist for an immediate call for help from the local level to the federal government.
A Federal department or agency acting on its own authority has requested DHS assistance. The resources of State and local authorities have become overwhelmed and Federal assistance has been requested. Multiple federal departments have become substantially involved in an incident. The DHS has been ordered by the President to manage the emergency response.
Chain of command Initially, local first responders such as the fire department would become the incident commanders. As the situation escalates and more and more agencies become involved, the President would have overall authority. The DHS would act in an advisory role with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) coordinating emergency response efforts. The DOD while retaining overall authority of military forces would support the FEMA mission. The DOD would appoint a Defense Coordinating Officer (DCO) to become the central contact for the DOD and to interact with other agencies. The DHS would appoint a Federal Security Officer (FSO) to become a central official for coordination of federal resources and the central communication focus for all departments and agencies.
All federal departments and agencies requested for assistance would identify and mobilize staff and subject-matter experts to fulfill their department's responsibilities. Staff would be dispatched to the Joint Field Office (JFO), including federal officials representing those departments and agencies with specific authorities, lead personnel for the JFO Sections (Operations, Planning, Logistics, and Administration and Finance). They would begin activating federal teams and other resources as requested by DHS or in accordance with department or agency authorities. A Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) would be named by the President to facilitate all operations becoming the central command and control officer.