A regional election was held in Andalusia on 14 March 2004 to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with the 2004 Spanish general election.

As happened with the concurrent nationwide election, results in Andalusia were heavily influenced by political controversy derived from the 11 March train bombings in Madrid. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) exceeded all opinion poll expectations by securing a comfortable majority. Incumbent Manuel Chaves was thus able to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Overview Under the 1981 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..

Date The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication (barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August).; ( by ). The previous election was held on 12 March 2000, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 12 March 2004. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 17 February 2004, setting the latest possible date for election day on 11 April 2004.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one. ( by ).

The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 20 January 2004 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 14 March and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 31 March..

Electoral system Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ).

The Parliament of Andalusia had a minimum of 90 and a maximum of 110 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 109. All were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 distributed in proportion to population (with the number of seats in each province not exceeding two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.; . The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:.

Seats Constituencies 18 Seville 16 Málaga 15 Cádiz 13 Córdoba, Granada 12 Jaén 11 Almería, Huelva

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).

Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.

+ Parliamentary composition in January 2004 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE–A 52 52 Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group PP 46 46 United Left/The Greens Parliamentary Group IULV–CA 6 6 Andalusian Parliamentary Group PA 3 3 Mixed Group PSA 2 2

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ).

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PSOE–A Manuel Chaves Social democracy 44.3% PP Teófila Martínez ConservatismChristian democracy 38.0% IULV–CA Diego Valderas SocialismCommunism 8.1% PA Antonio Ortega Andalusian nationalismSocial democracy 7.4% PSA Pedro Pacheco Andalusian nationalismSocial democracy colspan="2"

Former Labour minister in the first government of José María Aznar, Manuel Pimentel, abandoned the People's Party (PP) in March 2003 in protest over the Irak War crisis, forming his own party (Andalusian Forum) to contest the regional election.

Campaign Debates + 2004 Andalusian regional election debates Date Organizer(s) Moderator(s) PSOE–A PP IULV–CA PA Audience 4 March RTVA Manuel Campo Vidal 17.9%

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout IULV Lead 2004 regional election 14 Mar 2004 74.7 50.4 31.8 7.5 6.2 0.9 18.6 Sigma Dos/Antena 3 14 Mar 2004?? 48.2 34.4 7.1 6.5 – 13.8 Ipsos–Eco/RTVE 14 Mar 2004?? 47.5 32.8 8.8 6.6 – 14.7 Metra Seis/PA 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004???????? Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba 29 Feb 2004?? 44.0 37.5 7.2 5.7 – 6.5 Opina/El País 26–27 Feb 2004 1,500? 47.0 36.5 7.0 6.0 – 10.5 TNS Demoscopia/Vocento 12–20 Feb 2004 3,613 67–68 47.1 36.7 6.9 7.3 – 10.4 CIS 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 4,147 75.2 47.1 36.1 8.1 6.8 0.2 11.0 Idea Asesores/PP 14 Feb 2004?? 42.0 39.8??? 2.2 Opina/CEA 2–7 Feb 2004 3,200? 45.5 37.5 7.5 6.0 0.5 8.0 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 2–5 Feb 2004 2,500? 44.9 37.7 7.4 5.6 – 7.2 CADPEA/UGR 3–23 Dec 2003 3,200 72.6 45.2 37.1 7.8 6.7 0.8 8.1 Metra Seis/PA 24 Nov 2003???????? IESA/CSIC 1–21 Nov 2003 3,700 70 46.7 37.2 8.0 7.4 0.3 9.5 Idea Asesores/PP 22 Sep–2 Oct 2003 3,000? 42.8 39.5 8.5 5.5 0.6 3.3 CADPEA/UGR 1–19 Jul 2003 3,200 74.2 45.1 37.3 8.2 6.6 0.8 7.8 Demoscopia/Grupo Joly 28 Feb 2003?? 47.9 34.7 7.7 8.2 – 13.2 Opina/El País 18–19 Feb 2003 1,200? 50.5 30.0 9.5 7.5 – 20.5 Sigma Dos/ABC 14–17 Feb 2003 1,000? 49.8 33.7 7.5 6.1 – 16.1 Idea Asesores/PP 3–12 Feb 2003 2,500? 43.2 39.8 6.9 6.6 1.1 3.4 CADPEA/UGR 31 Jan 2003 3,500? 46.9 34.9 7.7 7.8 0.4 12.0 IESA/CSIC 15 Nov–10 Dec 2002 3,884 70 47.9 35.2 7.5 7.1 0.5 12.7 Inner/PSOE 10 Nov 2002 431? 51.6 39.1 7.6 1.7 – 12.5 CIS 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 982 70.9 45.0 37.2 7.1 8.2 – 7.8 Sigma Dos/Sur 28 Feb 2002?? 45.0 40.7 6.8 5.0 – 4.3 Idea Asesores/PP 28 Feb 2002?? 41.9 40.6 7.4 5.7 2.6 1.3 Opina/El País 18–19 Feb 2002 1,200? 47.3 35.0 7.3 7.8 0.5 12.3 PSOE 31 Jan–5 Feb 2002 1,200? 45.7 35.5 8.6 7.9 – 10.2 IESA/CSIC 15 Nov–10 Dec 2001 3,696? 46.8 35.8 8.9 7.1 – 11.0 Opina/CEA 15–27 Oct 2001 3,200? 44.2 39.5 7.4 6.9 – 4.7 PSOE 7–15 Jun 2001 2,045? 50.9 34.1 – – – 16.8 Sigma Dos 28 Feb 2001?? 43.2 40.3 7.1 7.4 – 2.9 IESA/CSIC 10 Nov–5 Dec 2000 3,645? 46.6 35.7 9.4 7.8 – 10.9 2000 regional election 12 Mar 2000 68.7 44.3 38.0 8.1 7.4 – 6.3

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size IULV Lead 2004 regional election 14 Mar 2004 37.9 24.0 5.7 4.7 0.7 24.2 13.9 CIS 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 4,147 37.8 17.6 5.1 3.2 0.1 28.6 5.9 20.2 CADPEA/UGR 3–23 Dec 2003 3,200 36.6 18.8 – – – 32.3 – 17.8 IESA/CSIC 1–21 Nov 2003 3,700 32.3 24.9 6.0 5.2 – 22.8 6.5 7.4 Idea Asesores/PP 3–12 Feb 2003 2,500 25.3 22.3 4.1 4.9 0.3 35.0 8.1 3.0 IESA/CSIC 15 Nov–10 Dec 2002 3,884 35.3 22.2 5.1 4.9 – 23.9 5.3 13.1 CIS 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 982 29.3 15.4 4.5 5.0 – 34.3 9.1 13.9 IESA/CSIC 15 Nov–10 Dec 2001 3,696 32.2 23.7 6.3 4.9 – 24.9 5.1 8.5 Opina/CEA 15–27 Oct 2001 3,200 28.2 21.0 4.2 5.2 – – – 7.2 Demoscopia/El País 15–20 Feb 2001 1,205 23.7 22.7 3.2 6.0 – – – 1.0 IESA/CSIC 10 Nov–5 Dec 2000 3,645 31.8 23.4 6.3 5.2 – 26.0 5.2 8.4 2000 regional election 12 Mar 2000 30.6 26.4 5.6 5.2 – 30.2 4.2

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size IULV Other/None Lead Opina/El País 26–27 Feb 2004 1,500 39.2 23.5 4.3 3.6 0.3 1.4 37.7 15.7 CIS 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 4,147 44.4 20.4 5.5 3.5 0.2 1.2 24.8 24.0 Opina/El País 18–19 Feb 2003 1,200 35.8 19.0 4.2 4.8 0.2 0.8 35.2 16.8 Opina/El País 18–19 Feb 2002 1,200 34.5 21.3 4.3 3.4 0.3 0.6 35.7 13.2

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size IULV Other/None Lead Opina/El País 26–27 Feb 2004 1,500 73.6 7.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 18.6 66.1 CIS 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 4,147 72.9 5.4 0.3 0.3 – 0.1 21.0 67.5 Inner/PSOE 20 Oct–7 Nov 2003 1,200 65.1 14.6 – – – 1.8 18.5 50.5 Opina/El País 18–19 Feb 2003 1,200 63.6 5.4 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 29.7 58.2 Opina/El País 18–19 Feb 2002 1,200 53.5 11.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 33.2 41.7

Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba 29 Feb 2004? 45.8 22.1 – – – – – 23.7 Opina/El País 26–27 Feb 2004 1,500 38.0 22.5 3.2 3.2 – 2.2 30.9 15.5 CIS 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 4,147 46.7 19.1 3.3 2.0 2.2 4.1 22.7 27.6 Inner/PSOE 20 Oct–7 Nov 2003 1,200 55.9 32.7 – – – 7.9 3.5 23.2

Results Overall