Climate change in Africa is a serious threat because the continent is one of the most vulnerable regions to the effects of climate change, despite being responsible for less than 4% of global greenhouse emissions. Climate change is causing increasingly erratic rainfall patterns, more frequent extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and rising sea-surface temperatures across the continent. These changes threaten food and water security, biodiversity, public health, and economic development. Africa is currently warming faster than the rest of the world on average.
Climate change intensifies existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Large segments of the African population depend on climate-sensitive livelihoods such as agriculture (55 - 62% of the workforce in sub-Saharan Africa) and already live in poverty, heightening their exposure to shocks. Health outcomes worsen as heat stress, vector-borne diseases (such as malaria and dengue), and malnutrition become more prevalent. Over half (56%) of the over 2,000 recorded public health incidents in Africa between 2001 and 2021 were connected to climate change. Resource scarcity contributes to displacement and conflict, particularly in fragile regions. Urban areas, often characterized by informal settlements, face heightened risks from flooding and extreme heat.
Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors, as most African farmers rely on rainfed crops. Reduced and unpredictable rainfall, combined with higher temperatures, drives soil moisture loss, desertification (especially in the Sahara) and shifts suitable growing areas. These changes lower yields of staple crops, undermining food security and worsening hunger. Livestock health is increasingly compromised by heat stress and shifting disease patterns. Coastal and marine ecosystems face warming seas and rising levels, which threaten fisheries and densely populated coastal settlements.
The economic toll of climate change is severe. On average African countries face climate-related losses amounting to 2-5% of GDP annually, while adaptation costs in sub-Sahran Africa are projected at USD 30-50 billion per year over the next decade. This threatens development gains and places pressure on governments and international institutions to mobilise climate finance.
Africa's climate change adaptation strategies focus on building resilience through climate-smart agriculture, sustainable water management, ecosystem conservation, and strengthening health and infrastructure systems. These approaches prioritise enhancing governance, mobilising climate finance and investment, and fostering community participation to address vulnerability holistically. Continental and national frameworks emphasise multi-sectoral coordination, technology adoption, and capacity building to support sustainable development and reduce climate risks.
Water security and resource degradation Climate change acts as a primary destabilizer of water security across the African continent, with hydrological cycles exhibiting increased volatility. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of the Climate in Africa 2025 report, extreme weather and climate-related shocks affected at least 13 million people and caused more than 3,000 reported fatalities in 2025 alone, with flooding accounting for over half of all recorded climate hazards. This intensification of hazards disrupts both surface water availability and municipal infrastructure, transforming physical climate risks into widespread economic water crises.
Major reservoir and power grid failures The vulnerability of large-scale water storage systems to prolonged thermal anomalies was demonstrated during the 2023–2025 regional drought in Southern Africa, which was classified as the worst drought to impact the region in over a century. Driven by an intense El Niño phase and positive Indian Ocean Dipole shifts, rainfall deficits led to historic drops in the water level of Lake Kariba, Africa's largest man-made reservoir by volume. The depletion of the reservoir's live storage volume incapacitated the associated hydroelectric installations, forcing prolonged power outages and clean water rationing across Zambia and Zimbabwe, and culminating in national drought disaster declarations across six nations, including Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, and Namibia.
Infrastructure contamination and transboundary basins Conversely, the acceleration of extreme precipitation events has equally threatened clean water access. In May 2025, unseasonal and heavy flash flooding in Nigeria resulted in over 200 deaths and overwhelmed local municipal drainage networks, causing the direct mixing of runoff with shallow urban aquifers and municipal piping systems. In transboundary basins such as the Lake Chad region, persistent warming and highly erratic rainfall trends continue to alter seasonal water volumes. The resultant contractions in available surface area directly undermine the resource base for over 30 million people across Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, demonstrating how climate-induced water insecurity can serve as a catalyst for local geopolitical tension and forced migration.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Africa's per person greenhouse gas emissions are low compared to other continents. Emissions from land use change are uncertain, especially in Central Africa. The main source of uncertainty comes from carbon dioxide fluxes in the LULUCF sector (this acronym stands for land use, land-use change, and forestry).
Impacts
Temperature and weather changes
Observed surface temperatures have generally increased over Africa since the late 19th century to the early 21st century by about 1 °C, but locally as much as 3 °C for minimum temperature in the Sahel at the end of the dry season. The warming of Africa has increased by +0.3 C from 1991 to 2021 versus +0.2 during 1961 to 1910. It is estimated that by 2030, the people of Africa will be exposed to a rise in sea level due to an increase in temperature. This will then cause agricultural productivity to decrease. Observed precipitation trends indicate spatial and temporal discrepancies as expected.Niang, I.; O. C. Ruppel; M. A. Abdrabo; A. Essel; C. Lennard; J. Padgham, and P. Urquhart, 2014: Africa. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V. R.; C. B. Field; D. J. Dokken et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1199–1265. The observed changes in temperature and precipitation vary regionally.
Current climate models (as summarised in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report) predict increases in frequency and intensity of drought and heavy rainfall events. Text was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License They also predict decreases in mean precipitation almost everywhere in Africa, with medium to high confidence. However, local rainfall trends and socio-climatic interactions are likely to manifest in mixed patterns. Therefore, the converging impacts of climate change will vary across the continent. In rural areas, rainfall patterns influence water usage.
A study in 2019 predicted increased dry spell length during wet seasons and increased extreme rainfall rates in Africa. In other words: "both ends of Africa's weather extremes will get more severe". The research found that most climate models will not be able to capture the extent of these changes because they are not convection-permitting at their coarse grid scales.
Sea level rise
In Africa, future population growth amplifies risks from sea level rise. Some 54.2 million people lived in the highly exposed low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) around 2000. This number will effectively double to around 110 million people by 2030. By 2060 it will be around 185 to 230 million people, depending on the extent of population growth. The average regional sea level rise will be around 21 cm by 2060. At that point climate change scenarios will make little difference. But local geography and population trends interact to increase the exposure to hazards like 100-year floods in a complex way.
+Populations within 100-year floodplains.In millions of people. The second and third columns include both the effects of population growth and the increased extent of floodplains by that point.Country200020302060Growth 2000–2060The increase in area's population and the highest plausible scenario of population growth.Egypt 7.4 13.8 20.7 0.28Nigeria 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.84Senegal 0.4 1.1 2.7 0.76Benin 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.12Tanzania 0.2 0.9 4.3 2.3Somalia 0.2 0.6 2.7 1.7Côte d'Ivoire 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.65Mozambique 0.7 1.4 2.5 0.36
In the near term, some of the largest displacement is projected to occur in the East Africa region. At least 750,000 people there are likely to be displaced from the coasts between 2020 and 2050. Scientific studies estimate that 12 major African cities would collectively sustain cumulative damages of US$65 billion for the "moderate" climate change scenario RCP4.5 by 2050. These cities are Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda and Maputo. Under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 the damage would amount to US$86.5 billion. The version of the high-emission scenario with additional impacts from high ice sheet instability would involve up to US$137.5 billion in damages. The damage from these three scenarios accounting additionally for "low-probability, high-damage events" would rise to US$187 billion, US$206 billion and US$397 billion respectively. In these estimates, the Egyptian city of Alexandria alone accounts for around half of this figure. Hundreds of thousands of people in its low-lying areas may already need relocation in the coming decade. Across sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, damage from sea level rise could reach 2–4% of GDP by 2050. However this figure depends on the extent of future economic growth and adaptation.Trisos, C. H., I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N. P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen 2022: Chapter 9: Africa. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York, US, pp. 2043–2121 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.011.
In the longer term, Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania are likely to have the largest number of people affected by annual flooding amongst all African countries. This projection assumes global warming will reach 4 °C by the end of the century. That rise is associated with the RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5, 10 important cultural sites would be at risk of flooding and erosion by the end of the century. These are the Casbah of Algiers, Carthage Archaeological site, Kerkouane, Leptis Magna Archaeological site, Medina of Sousse, Medina of Tunis, Sabratha Archaeological site, Robben Island, Island of Saint-Louis and Tipasa. A total of 15 Ramsar sites and other natural heritage sites would face similar risks. These are Bao Bolong Wetland Reserve, Delta du Saloum National Park, Diawling National Park, Golfe de Boughrara, Kalissaye, Lagune de Ghar el Melh et Delta de la Mejerda, Marromeu Game Reserve, Parc Naturel des Mangroves du Fleuve Cacheu, Seal Ledges Provincial Nature Reserve, Sebkhet Halk Elmanzel et Oued Essed, Sebkhet Soliman, Réserve Naturelle d'Intérêt Communautaire de la Somone, Songor Biosphere Reserve, Tanbi Wetland Complex and Watamu Marine National Park.
Socioeconomic impacts