Post-election pendulum for the 1996 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1996 Victorian state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Liberal/National seatsMarginal Ballarat EastBarry TraynorLIB0.0%OakleighDenise McGillLIB0.8% CarrumDavid LeanLIB0.8% Ballarat WestPaul JenkinsLIB1.4%NarracanFlorian AndrighettoLIB1.6%TullamarineBernie FinnLIB3.0%Frankston EastPeter McLellanLIB3.1% GeelongAnn HendersonLIB3.5% SeymourMarie TehanLIB4.2% RiponSteve ElderLIB4.6% PrahranLeonie BurkeLIB4.6% MordiallocGeoff LeighLIB4.7% BentleighInga PeulichLIB4.7% Bendigo EastMichael JohnLIB5.0% MonbulkSteve McArthurLIB5.2% MitchamRoger PescottLIB5.3%BerwickRobert Dean LIB5.3% BellarineGarry SpryLIB5.5%Fairly safe ElthamWayne PhilipsLIB6.8% BayswaterGordon AshleyLIB7.5% GisborneTom ReynoldsLIB7.8% KnoxHurtle LuptonLIB7.9%PolwarthIan SmithLIB8.1%DromanaMartin DixonLIB8.1% BurwoodJeff Kennett LIB8.6% CranbourneGary RoweLIB9.1% BennettswoodGeoff ColemanLIB9.2%CaulfieldHelen ShardeyLIB9.3%Safe South BarwonAlister PatersonLIB10.2% Box HillRobert ClarkLIB10.3%PortlandDenis NapthineLIB10.4% Forest HillJohn RichardsonLIB10.5%PakenhamRob MaclellanLIB11.1%MorningtonRobin CooperLIB11.3%MooroolbarkLorraine ElliottLIB12.2%Gippsland WestAlan BrownLIB12.6%EvelynJim PlowmanLIB12.7% WantirnaKim WellsLIB13.1%HawthornPhil GudeLIB13.6%WarrnamboolJohn McGrathNAT13.8%WarrandytePhil HoneywoodLIB13.9%SandringhamMurray ThompsonLIB14.3%BulleenDavid PerrinLIB14.6%BenambraTony PlowmanLIB14.9%KewJan WadeLIB15.0%DoncasterVictor PertonLIB15.0% Gippsland EastDavid TreasureNAT15.2%Benalla Pat McNamaraNAT15.3% FrankstonAndrea McCallLIB15.4% Glen WaverleyRoss SmithLIB15.7% MalvernRobert DoyleLIB17.6%BrightonAlan StockdaleLIB18.1%Swan HillBarry SteggallNAT19.0%Gippsland SouthPeter RyanNAT19.4%SheppartonDon KilgourNAT19.6%Very safeWimmeraBill McGrathNAT21.2%Murray ValleyKen JasperNAT22.4%RodneyNoel MaughanNAT26.1%

Labor seatsMarginalWerribeeMary DouglasALP0.8% IvanhoeCraig LangdonALP1.6% Yan YeanAndre HaermeyerALP1.6%Bendigo WestBob CameronALP1.7%Dandenong NorthJan WilsonALP2.2%BundooraSherryl GarbuttALP2.6%MorwellKeith HamiltonALP2.7%DandenongJohn PandazopoulosALP3.3%EssendonJudy MaddiganALP3.4%NiddrieRob HullsALP4.4%Fairly safeSpringvaleEddie MicallefALP7.9% Geelong NorthPeter LoneyALP8.1% AltonaLynne KoskyALP8.2% Albert ParkJohn ThwaitesALP8.8%ClaytonHong LimALP9.6%Safe MitchamTony RobinsonALP10.5%Pascoe ValeChristine CampbellALP11.1%KeilorGeorge SeitzALP11.6%MeltonDavid CunninghamALP12.2%Mill ParkAlex AndrianopoulosALP13.9% NorthcoteMary DelahuntyALP15.0%PrestonMichael LeightonALP15.3%WilliamstownSteve BracksALP15.6% MelbourneNeil ColeALP15.9%CoburgCarlo CarliALP16.9% RichmondDemetri DollisALP17.3%SunshineIan BakerALP19.1%FootscrayBruce MildenhallALP19.4% NorthcoteTony SheehanALP19.9%Very safeThomastownPeter BatchelorALP22.0%BroadmeadowsJohn BrumbyALP25.1%Independent & other seatsGippsland WestSusan DaviesIND v LIB0.3% MilduraRussell SavageIND v LIB20.9%

Notes In December 1996, the Liberal member for Gippsland West, Alan Brown, resigned. Independent candidate Susan Davies won the resulting by-election on 1 February 1997. On 11 November 1997, the Liberal member for Mitcham, Roger Pescott, resigned. Labor candidate Tony Robinson won the resulting by-election on 13 December 1997. On 3 July 1998, the Labor member for Northcote, Tony Sheehan, resigned. Labor candidate Mary Delahunty won the resulting state by-election on 15 August 1998. The member for Frankston East, Peter McLellan, was elected as a member of the Liberal Party, but resigned on 24 July 1998 and subsequently served out the remainder of his term as an independent.

References