Post-election pendulum for the 2002 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2002 Victorian state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.

Labor seats Seat Party Margin Swing to ALPMarginalEvelynALP0.3%+12.7%HastingsALP0.8%+8.1%GembrookALP1.6%+8.6%MelbourneALP1.9% v GRN*KilsythALP2.1%+10.1%Ferntree GullyALP2.3%+9.9%Mount WaverleyALP2.3%+11.4%BayswaterALP2.8%+9.2%RichmondALP3.1% v GRN*PrahranALP4.4%+9.2%MordiallocALP4.5%+7.1%BentleighALP4.8%+6.8%ElthamALP4.8%+8.6%MorwellALP4.9%-4.2%South BarwonALP5.0%+9.8%BurwoodALP5.1%+11.9%FrankstonALP5.8%+9.1%Forest HillALP5.8%+12.2%Fairly safeNarracanALP6.8%+7.3%RiponALP7.4%+5.5%Ballarat EastALP7.6%+4.2%MitchamALP7.7%+7.7%NorthcoteALP7.9% v GRN*GeelongALP8.1%+8.6%BellarineALP8.3%+9.8%MonbulkALP8.3%+10.8%Ballarat WestALP9.0%+7.4%MacedonALP9.3%+9.7%BrunswickALP9.3%*SeymourALP9.5%+9.5%Yan YeanALP9.5%+10.2%Narre Warren NorthALP9.7%+14.9%SafeCranbourneALP10.8%+9.2%CarrumALP12.2%+10.8%IvanhoeALP12.5%+7.6%Albert ParkALP12.5%+5.8%Narre Warren SouthALP12.6%+14.1%Bendigo EastALP13.0%+10.0%OakleighALP15.2%+12.2%MeltonALP15.3%+8.6%YurokeALP15.9%+7.6%Bendigo WestALP16.0%+4.9%MulgraveALP16.2%+11.8%NiddrieALP16.6%+10.1%TarneitALP17.4%+6.6%BundooraALP17.6%+10.3%KeilorALP18.1%+11.4%Very safeDandenongALP20.3%+8.7%LaraALP22.4%+9.7%YurokeALP22.9%+13.8%ClaytonALP23.9%+11.8%Pascoe ValeALP24.2%+7.3%AltonaALP24.7%+9.1%FootscrayALP24.9%+7.0%LyndhurstALP25.1%+14.2%WilliamstownALP25.7%+7.5%PrestonALP25.8%+6.9%Mill ParkALP26.8%+12.9%KororoitALP27.1%+6.2%DerrimutALP27.3%+7.0%BroadmeadowsALP30.8%+5.8%ThomastownALP31.8%+7.6% Liberal/National seats Seat Party Margin Swing to ALPMarginalNepeanLIB0.2%+6.1%BassLIB0.6%*South-West CoastLIB0.7%+3.9%DoncasterLIB0.8%+11.7%Box HillLIB1.1%+6.9%MorningtonLIB1.8%+10.1%BenallaNAT2.0%+5.4%CaulfieldLIB2.3%+6.0%BulleenLIB2.6%+10.1%SandringhamLIB3.0%+9.2%ScoresbyLIB3.3%+11.5%BenambraLIB4.0%+3.6%SheppartonNAT4.3%*HawthornLIB5.9%+8.3%Fairly safeKewLIB6.0%+7.9%WarrandyteLIB6.4%+7.5%BrightonLIB7.4%+7.4%PolwarthLIB9.5%+3.7%SafeRodneyNAT10.0% v LIB*MalvernLIB10.2%+6.0%Gippsland SouthNAT10.9% -2.8%Gippsland EastIND11.8% v NAT*Murray ValleyNAT13.9% +1.9%Swan HillNAT14.2% *LowanNAT17.1% *MilduraIND18.5% v NAT*

References