Deficit reduction in the United States refers to taxation, spending, and economic policy debates and proposals designed to reduce the federal government budget deficit. Government agencies including the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the U.S. Treasury Department have reported that the federal government is facing a series of important long-run financing challenges, mainly driven by an aging population, rising healthcare costs per person, and rising interest payments on the national debt.
CBO reported in July 2014 that the continuation of present tax and spending policies for the long-run (into the 2030s) results in a budget trajectory that causes debt to grow faster than GDP, which is "unsustainable." Further, CBO reported that high levels of debt relative to GDP may pose significant risks to economic growth and the ability of lawmakers to respond to crises. These risks can be addressed by higher taxes, reduced spending, or combination of both.CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook. July 15, 2014
The U.S. reported budget surpluses in only four years between 1970–2020, during fiscal years 1998–2001, the last four years budgeted by President Bill Clinton. These surpluses are attributed to a combination of a booming economy, higher taxes implemented in 1993, spending restraint, and capital gains tax revenues.
CBO estimated in February 2023 that Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 98 percent of GDP in 2023 to 118 percent in 2033—an average increase of 2 percentage points per year. Over that period, the growth of interest costs and mandatory spending outpaces the growth of revenues and the economy, driving up debt. Those factors persist beyond 2033, pushing federal debt higher still, to 195 percent of GDP in 2053.
Economists debate the extent to which deficits and debt present a problem, and the best timing and approach for reducing them. For example, Keynes argued that the time for austerity (deficit reduction through tax increases and spending cuts) was during a booming economy, while increasing the deficit is the right policy prescription during a slump (recession). During the pandemic recession of 2020, several economists argued that deficits and debt reduction were not priorities.
CBO estimated that the U.S. will have a post-WW2 record budget deficit of nearly $4 trillion in fiscal year 2020 (17.9% GDP), due to measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic.
Understanding key terms
A budget deficit refers to expenditures that exceed tax collections during a given period and require borrowing to fund the difference. The U.S. federal government has run annual deficits in 36 of the past 40 fiscal years, with surpluses from 1998–2001. Debt represents the accumulation of deficits over time. Debt held by the public, a partial measure of the U.S. national debt representing securities held by investors, rose in dollar terms each year except during the 1998–2001 surplus period. Total national debt rose in dollar terms each year from 1972–2014.
The budget deficit and debt challenge can be described using various measures:CBO – An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022. August 22, 2012 Dollars: The 2014 deficit was approximately $486 billion, with tax revenues of $3.0 trillion and spending or outlays of $3.5 trillion. CBO projected in February 2013 that the debt held by the public will rise from $11.3 trillion in 2012 to $18.9 trillion in 2022 under its "baseline scenario," an increase of $7.6 trillion over 10 years. The total national debt will rise from $16 trillion in 2012 to $25 trillion by 2022, an increase of $9 trillion.CBO Budget and Economic Outlook. February 2013 Deficit as percentage of the size of the economy (GDP): The historical average annual deficit pre-2008 was about 3% GDP, with 18% GDP average tax revenues and 21% GDP average expenditures. However, in 2009 the deficit rose to 10% GDP due to a combination of economic conditions and policy choices. It then fell as a % of GDP for five consecutive years back to 2.8% GDP in 2014. With GDP of $16.8 trillion in 2013, 1% GDP represents approximately $170 billion. Debt as a percentage of GDP: Debt held by the public ranged between 23% GDP and 50% GDP during the 1971–2007 period, then rose significantly during the Great Recession, ending FY2014 at about 75% GDP. As of September 30, 2014, debt held by the public was approximately $12.8 trillion. Intra-governmental debt, such as the Social Security trust fund, was at $5.0 trillion, giving a combined public debt or national debt of $17.8 trillion or about 105% GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue rising if the U.S. continues current policies. Unfunded liabilities: This is an actuarial concept used to measure the value in today's dollars of a difference between tax revenue and expenditures for particular programs. This concept is described further below in the sections on Social Security and Medicare.
CBO projections
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a key official source of budget historical information and projections of future revenues, expenses, deficits, and debt under various scenarios.
Overview John Maynard Keynes wrote that: "The boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the Treasury." In other words, when the economy is doing well (a boom), that is the time to raise taxes and cut spending (austerity, to reduce deficits), while the reverse is applicable when the economy is in recession (a slump), at which time lowering taxes and raising spending (stimulus, to increase deficits) is the proper remedy.NYT-Paul Krugman-Keynes Was Right-December 29, 2011
CBO reported in January 2017: "To avoid the negative consequences of high and rising federal debt and to put debt on a sustainable path, lawmakers will have to make significant changes to tax and spending policies—increasing revenues more than they would under current law, reducing spending for large benefit programs below the projected amounts, or adopting some combination of those approaches."CBO Budget & Economic Outlook 2017–2027 – January 24, 2017
CBO reported in November 2013 that addressing the long-term debt challenge would require reducing future budget deficits. Lawmakers would need to increase revenues further relative to the size of the economy, decrease spending on Social Security or major health care programs relative to current law, cut other federal spending to even lower levels by historical standards, or adopt a combination of these approaches.CBO – Options for Reducing the Deficit. November 2013
CBO reported that: "The amount of deficit reduction that would be needed would depend on lawmakers' objectives for federal debt. For example: Decreasing that debt in 2038 to just below 70% GDP—slightly less than what it is now but still quite high by historical standards—could be achieved if deficits were reduced by $2 trillion (excluding interest costs) during the next decade, and the reduction in the deficit as a percentage of output in 2023 was maintained in later years. Lowering the debt in 25 years to about 30% GDP—which would be a little below the average over the past 40 years—could be achieved by reducing deficits by $4 trillion (excluding interest costs) during the next decade and maintaining that reduction in subsequent years. Achieving savings of $2 trillion or more during the 2014–2023 period would require significant increases in taxes, significant cuts in federal benefits or services, or both."
CBO baseline projections
In January 2017, the Congressional Budget Office reported its baseline budget projections for the 2017–2027 time periods, based on laws in place as of the end of the Obama administration. CBO forecasted that "debt held by the public" would increase from $14.2 trillion in 2016 to $24.9 trillion by 2027, an increase of $10.7 trillion. These increases are primarily driven by an aging population, which impacts the costs of Social Security and Medicare, along with interest on the debt. As President Trump introduces his budgetary policies, the impact can be measured against this baseline.
CBO also estimated that if policies in place as of the end of the Obama administration continued over the following decade, real GDP would grow at approximately 2% per year, the unemployment rate would remain around 5%, inflation would remain around 2%, and interest rates would rise moderately. President Trump's economic policies can also be measured against this baseline.
Budget deficit in FY2017 Fiscal year 2017 (FY2017) ran from October 1, 2016 to September 30, 2017; President Trump was inaugurated in January 2017, so he began office in the fourth month of the fiscal year, which was budgeted by President Obama. In FY2017, the actual budget deficit was $666 billion, $80 billion more than FY2016. FY2017 revenues were up $48 billion (1%) vs. FY2016, while spending was up $128 billion (3%). The deficit was $107 billion more than the CBO January 2017 baseline forecast of $559 billion. The deficit increased to 3.5% GDP, up from 3.2% GDP in 2016 and 2.4% GDP in 2015.
Budget deficit in FY2018 Fiscal year 2018 (FY 2018) ran from October 1, 2017 through September 30, 2018. It was the first fiscal year budgeted by President Trump. The budget deficit increased from $665 billion in 2017 to $779 billion in 2018, an increase of $114 billion or 17%. The budget deficit increased from 3.5% GDP in 2017 to 3.9% GDP in 2018. Compared to the budget deficit of $487 billion forecast for 2018 by CBO just prior to Trump's inauguration, the actual budget deficit was up $292 billion or 60%. This was mainly due to a revenue shortfall of about $275 billion relative to forecast, due to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.CBO Budget Projections and Historical Tables-Retrieved August 5, 2019
Ten year forecasts 2018–2028 The CBO estimated the impact of Trump's tax cuts and separate spending legislation over the 2018–2028 period in their annual "Budget & Economic Outlook", released in April 2018: CBO forecasts a stronger economy over the 2018–2019 periods than do many outside economists, blunting some of the deficit impact of the tax cuts and spending increases. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, a key measure of economic growth, is expected to increase 3.3% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, versus 2.6% in 2017. It is projected to average 1.7% from 2020–2026 and 1.8% in 2027–2028. Over 2017–2027, real GDP is expected to grow 2.0% on average under the April 2018 baseline, versus 1.9% under the June 2017 baseline. The non-farm employment level would be about 1.1 million higher on average over the 2018–2028 period, about 0.7% level higher than the June 2017 baseline. The budget deficit in fiscal 2018 (which runs from October 1, 2017 to September 30, 2018, the first year budgeted by President Trump) is forecast to be $804 billion, an increase of $139 billion (21%) from the $665 billion in 2017 and up $242 billion (39%) over the previous baseline forecast (June 2017) of $580 billion for 2018. The June 2017 forecast was essentially the budget trajectory inherited from President Obama; it was prepared prior to the Tax Act and other spending increases under President Trump. For the 2018–2027 period, CBO projects the sum of the annual deficits (i.e., debt increase) to be $11.7 trillion, an increase of $1.6 trillion (16%) over the previous baseline (June 2017) forecast of $10.1 trillion. The $1.6 trillion debt increase includes three main elements: 1) $1.7 trillion less in revenues due to the tax cuts; 2) $1.0 trillion more in spending; and 3) Partially offsetting incremental revenue of $1.1 trillion due to higher economic growth than previously forecast. The $1.6 trillion figure is approximately $12,700 per family or $4,900 per person total.