Opinion polling for the 2011 Croatian parliamentary election

Opinion polling for the 2011 Croatian parliamentary election started early after the previous election with polls on individual parties. As electoral coalitions were formed, coalition ratings started to be polled as well. The poll results below are listed by category and ordered in reverse chronological order. Major political events are indicated chronologically between individual polls. Concurrent polling was at the time also done for the 2012 Croatian European Union membership referendum.

Exit polls Seat projections The three main national television stations contracted Ipsos Puls to conduct exit polling at 403 stations.

Date Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ HGS DC Kukuriku HSS HDSSB HSP HSLS Labour Jurčić et al. Grubišić et al. HSP-AS HČSP Ladonja 4 Dec 2011 19:50 Ipsos Puls for HRT/Nova TV/RTL Televizija 30,000 40 82 2 6 0 0 6 0 2 1 1 4 Dec 2011 19:00 Ipsos Puls for HRT/Nova TV/RTL Televizija 25,000 40 83 2 6 0 0 6 0 2 1 0

Campaign poll results Overall party rating

Generic national polls are conducted to indicate overall party rating and provide a trend indicator, while the actual election is conducted not with a single electoral unit but with the Croatian Parliament electoral districts.

The listed poll dates are either the dates when the poll was conducted, or alternatively the date when the poll result was published.

Date Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ Kukuriku HSS HDSSB HSP HSLS Labour Jurčić et al. Other Undecided 4 Dec Election Day. 3 Dec Election silence begins. 29-30 Nov CRO Demoskop 1,300 19% 37.5% 4.2% 2.5% 4.4% 3.2% 5.6% 3.2% 6.4% 14% 25 Nov Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 19% 37.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 6.6% 4.3% 5.4% 14.7% 17 Nov Official candidate lists finalized. 8 Nov Croatian Democratic Union signs a pre-election coalition with the Croatian Citizen Party in two electoral districts. 2-3 Nov CRO Demoskop 1,300 18.3% 37.2% 3.6% 2.5% 3.9% 3.1% 5.7% 3% 4.7% 18%31 Oct General election officially called: President of the Republic agrees to a dissolution of Parliament, allowing the general election to take place on 4 December.28 Oct MPs vote to dissolve Parliament.Pogledajte sve snimke sa suđenja Sanaderu, Nova TV28 Oct Former PM and leader of HDZ Ivo Sanader appears in court for the first of many pending trials for corruption.Ovo su bili najzanimljiviji trenuci u Saboru!, Nova TV27 Oct As a result of the ongoing investigation of the party's 'black funds', USKOK and the Attorney General issue an indictment against HDZ as a legal entity.J. Kosor: Neću dati ostavku i nećemo dopustiti da se HDZ uruši, Večernji list 25 Oct Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.3% 38.8% 2.5% 1.6% 4.7% 1.6% 6.3% 4.4% 6.8% 13%13 Oct After Vladimir Šeks and HDZ caused a number of incidents in a parliamentary immunity proceedings, most of the opposition parties (Kukuriku coalition and Labour) decided to boycott the work of the Sabor. Their concerns were also echoed by SDSS which is part of the ruling coalition, causing a quorum issue. 6 Oct Ljubo Jurčić signs a formal pre-election coalition agreement with the Party of Pensioners and the Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar.Ljubo Jurčić, SU i PGS zajedno na izbore , Nova TV, 2011-10-06, accessed 2011-11-26 3-4 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,300 19% 36.7% 4.4% 2.5% 3.7% 3.5% ~5% 7.2% 18%27 Sep HDZ reveals its manifesto for the upcoming election.HDZ predstavio izborni program: Bez novih poreza i s olakšicama za ulagače , iPress.hr 26 Sep Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.1% 37.2% 4.2% 3.5% 4.5% 2.5% 6.1% 5.1% 7.2% 9.6%23 Sep USKOK issues a second indictment against Ivo Sanader for taking a 10 million euro bribe from MOLSanader mora vratiti 10 milijuna eura 18 Sep Hendal for HRT 873 10% 33.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 1.6% 2.4% 8.7% 40.2%17 Sep HDZ holds its 14th party convention.KOSOR 'ZAPALILA' HDZ-OVCE U ARENI: 'Ovih dana nas blate kao Tuđmana 90-ih', tportal.hr15 Sep Kukuriku coalition reveals its political manifesto called 'Plan 21'.Pogledajte što je Milanović obećao Hrvatskoj, tportal.hr11 Sep Former HDZ treasurer Branka Pavošević testifies to USKOK about the party's 'black funds' and illegal finances used for previous elections.Iskopana tajna: HDZ s prljavih 13 milijuna kuna financirao Jadranku Kosor, ali i Houdeka, Škoru, Kindl..., Jutarnji list 1-2 Sep CRO Demoskop 1,300 20.4% 37% 4.4% 2% 2.8% 3.2% 4.9% 7% 19.7% 25 Aug Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.8% 35.3% 5.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 5.3% 4.3% 9.5% 12.1% 23 Aug Prizma for HDZ 3,000 24.9% 37.8% 1-3 Aug CRO Demoskop 1,300 20.1%Possible HDZ-DC coalition given 20.5% support 37.4% 4.5% <2% 3.1%Potential coalition of HSP/HČSP/A-HSP given 3.6% 2.8% 4.3% <2% N/A 20.4% 25 Jul Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 23.8%Possible HDZ coalition given 25.3% support 37.8% 4.3% 3.1% 3.6% 3.3% 4.7% N/A 9% 11% 15 Jul Kukuriku coalition leaders sign a formal pre-election coalition agreement.Ugovor Kukuriku koalicije - S HDZ-om nitko neće ni u slučaju izbornog poraza!, tportal.hr, 2011-07-23, accessed 2011-11-26

Seat projections Because the seats in the Parliament are split according to Croatian Parliament electoral districts, seat projections significantly vary from a generic overall poll.

The seat projections do not include: the 8 seats from minority voters, and these representatives are not usually strictly aligned with mainstream parties the 3 seats from voters residing abroad, which have in every election since independence gone to HDZ The new composition of Parliament will have 151 seats meaning that 76 seats will be needed for a majority.

Because of the nature of the D'Hondt method and the division into constituencies, seat projections are less reliable, so some polls list tentative options, indicated in parentheses.

The listed poll dates are either the dates when the poll was conducted, or alternatively the date when the poll result was published.

Date Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ Kukuriku HSS HDSSB HSP HSLS Labour Jurčić et al. Grubišić et al. HSP-AS Other 15-28 Nov 2011 Promocija Plus for HRT 8,000 42 79 1 4 3 1 7 1 1 1 0 15-29 Nov 2011 Ipsos Puls for Večernji list, Media servis & Nova TV 4,171 43 79 3 5 1 3 4 1 1 0 0 15-25 Nov 2011 GFK for RTL 4,000 39 85 1 4 4 1 3 1 2 0 0 11-24 Nov 2011 Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list 4,000 41 83 1 3 3 1 6 1 1 0 0 4 Nov 2011 Ipsos Puls for Večernji list, Media servis & Nova TV 4,047 41 78 2(3) 4 1 1 7(3) 4 1(0) 1 0 14-28 Oct 2011 GFK for RTL 4,000 35 90 0 3 5 1 5 1 0 0 0 25 Oct 2011 Promocija Plus for HNS 8,000 44 77 2(2) 4(1) 2 0(4) 6 2(3) 0 0 3

Early polling Overall party rating

Generic national polls are conducted to indicate overall party rating and provide a trend indicator, while the actual election is conducted not with a single electoral unit but with the Croatian Parliament electoral districts.

The listed poll dates are either the dates when the poll was conducted, or alternatively the date when the poll result was published.

2011 Date Polling Organisation/Client Sample size HDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLS Other Undecided HDZ coalition SDP coalition1-2 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,300 18.4% 27.9% 5.5% 4.4% 3.2% 3.5% 2.2% N/A N/A 21.5% 38%26 Jun Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 19.3% 26.6% 4.7% 4.7% 3.9% 4.6% 4.4% 17.3% 14.5% 20.6% 35.9%2-3 Jun CRO Demoskop 1,300 17.8% 29.8% 6.2% 3.9% 3.1% 3.5% 2.1% N/A N/A 19.9% 39.8%25 May Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.3% 30.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 6.1% 2.9% 7.9% 14.7% 22% 38.2%16 May GFK for RTL 600 8% 26.4% 3.3% 0.9% 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% N/A 40.9%2–3 May CRO Demoskop 1,300 18% 29% 5.9% 4.5% 3.1% 3.6% 2.6% N/A N/A 19.9% 39.8%22 Apr Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 20.9% 26.9% 4.8% 2.8% 3.4% 4% 2.6% 16.8% 17.8% 22.5% 33.2%15 Apr Former Croatian general Ante Gotovina is sentenced to 24 years in prison by ICTY after being found guilty of war crimes during Operation Storm.HAŠKA PRESUDA: Gotovina je izgledao mirno, a u njemu je ključalo. Čeljust mu se tresla, Jutarnji list1-3 Apr CRO Demoskop 1,300 18.3% 29.2% 5.9% 5.1% 3% 3.1% 3.2% N/A N/A 21.2% 40.4%24 Mar Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 17% 27.8% 5.5% 3.1% 5.1% 5.3% 2% 15.8% 18.4% 18.9% 40.9%20 Mar Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list 15.1% 26.7% 5% 1.3% 3.1% 1.5% 2.2% N/A 15.9%14 Mar GFK for RTL 600 6.6% 30% 3.3% 0.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% N/A 41.7%4 Mar CRO Demoskop 1,300 19.2% 29.9% 5.9% 5.1% 2.9% 4% 3.1% N/A N/A 24.4% 41.2%2 Mar Anti-government protests are held across the country. The protesters burn the flags of major political parties as well as the flag of Europe and calling for an early general election.Rastrgali zastavu HDZ-a, zapalili SDP-ovu i EU-a , Novi list24 Feb Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 22% 29% 6.3% 4.5% 5.1% 3.2% 3.2% 14.1% 12.6% 24.2% 44.3%1-2 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,300 21.9% 31% 5.6% 5% 3.2% 3.8% 3.8% N/A N/A 27.8% 42%25 Jan Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000 22.5% 33.3% 5.2% 4.8% 4.1% 4.4% N/A 12.5% 11.1% 24.2% 44.3%3-4 Jan CRO Demoskop 1,300 22.6% 31.2% 6% 5.1% 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% N/A N/A 27.9% 41.2%

2010