Moment (statistics)

In statistics, the moments of a probability density function are measures related to the shape of the function's graph. The first moment is the expected value, the second central moment is the variance, the third standardized moment is the skewness, and the fourth standardized moment is the kurtosis.

In the mid-nineteenth century, Pafnuty Chebyshev became the first person to think systematically in terms of the moments of random variables.

Formulation The th raw moment (i.e., moment about zero) of a random variable with density function is defined by

Interpretation The th moment about zero of a probability density function is the expected value of and is called a raw moment or crude moment or population moment or uncorrected moment. Raw Moments at Math-world The moments about its mean are called central moments; these describe the shape of the function, independently of translation.

If is a probability density function, then the value of the integral above is called the th moment of the probability distribution. More generally, if F is a cumulative probability distribution function of any probability distribution, which may not have a density function, then the th moment of the probability distribution is given by the Riemann–Stieltjes integralwhere X is a random variable that has this cumulative distribution F, and is the expectation operator or mean. Whenthe moment is said not to exist. If the th moment about any point exists, so does the th moment (and thus, all lower-order moments) about every point. The zeroth moment of any probability density function is , since the area under any probability density function must be equal to one.

+ Significance of moments (raw, central, standardised) and cumulants (raw, normalised), in connection with named properties of distributions Moment ordinal Moment Cumulant Raw Central Standardized Raw Normalized 1 Mean 0 0 Mean 2 — Variance 1 Variance 1 3 — — Skewness — Skewness 4 — — (Non-excess or historical) kurtosis — Excess kurtosis 5 — — Hyperskewness — — 6 — — Hypertailedness — — 7+ — — — — —

Mean

The first raw moment is the mean, usually denoted

Variance

The second central moment is the variance. The positive square root of the variance is the standard deviation

Skewness

The third central moment is the measure of the lopsidedness of the distribution; any symmetric distribution will have a third central moment, if defined, of zero. The normalised third central moment is called the skewness, often . A distribution that is skewed to the left (the tail of the distribution is longer on the left) will have a negative skewness. A distribution that is skewed to the right (the tail of the distribution is longer on the right), will have a positive skewness.

For distributions that are not too different from the normal distribution, the median will be somewhere near ; the mode about .

Kurtosis

The fourth central moment is a measure of the heaviness of the tail of the distribution. Since it is the expectation of a fourth power, the fourth central moment, where defined, is always nonnegative; and except for a point distribution, it is always strictly positive. The fourth central moment of a normal distribution is .

The kurtosis is defined to be the standardized fourth central moment. (Equivalently, as in the next section, excess kurtosis is the fourth cumulant divided by the square of the second cumulant.) If a distribution has heavy tails, the kurtosis will be high (sometimes called leptokurtic); conversely, light-tailed distributions (for example, bounded distributions such as the uniform) have low kurtosis (sometimes called platykurtic).

The kurtosis can be positive without limit, but must be greater than or equal to ; equality only holds for binary distributions. For unbounded skew distributions not too far from normal, tends to be somewhere in the area of and .

The inequality can be proven by consideringwhere . This is the expectation of a square, so it is non-negative for all a; however it is also a quadratic polynomial in a. Its discriminant must be non-positive, which gives the required relationship.

Other moments

Standardized moments

The normalised th central moment or standardised moment is the th central moment divided by ; the normalised th central moment of the random variable is

These normalised central moments are dimensionless quantities, which represent the distribution independently of any linear change of scale.

Higher moments High-order moments are moments beyond 4th-order moments.

As with variance, skewness, and kurtosis, these are higher-order statistics, involving non-linear combinations of the data, and can be used for description or estimation of further shape parameters. The higher the moment, the harder it is to estimate, in the sense that larger samples are required in order to obtain estimates of similar quality. This is due to the excess degrees of freedom consumed by the higher orders. Further, they can be subtle to interpret, often being most easily understood in terms of lower order moments – compare the higher-order derivatives of jerk and jounce in physics. For example, just as the 4th-order moment (kurtosis) can be interpreted as "relative importance of tails as compared to shoulders in contribution to dispersion" (for a given amount of dispersion, higher kurtosis corresponds to thicker tails, while lower kurtosis corresponds to broader shoulders), the 5th-order moment can be interpreted as measuring "relative importance of tails as compared to center (mode and shoulders) in contribution to skewness" (for a given amount of skewness, higher 5th moment corresponds to higher skewness in the tail portions and little skewness of mode, while lower 5th moment corresponds to more skewness in shoulders).

Mixed moments Mixed moments are moments involving multiple variables.

The value is called the moment of order (moments are also defined for non-integral ). The moments of the joint distribution of random variables are defined similarly. For any integers , the mathematical expectation is called a mixed moment of order (where ), and is called a central mixed moment of order . The mixed moment is called the covariance and is one of the basic characteristics of dependency between random variables.

Some examples are covariance, coskewness and cokurtosis. While there is a unique covariance, there are multiple co-skewnesses and co-kurtoses.

Related concepts

Cumulants

The first raw moment and the second and third unnormalized central moments are additive in the sense that if X and Y are independent random variables then

(These can also hold for variables that satisfy weaker conditions than independence. The first always holds; if the second holds, the variables are called uncorrelated).

These are the first three quantities known as cumulants. Cumulants are somewhat similar to moments, but unlike moments, all cumulants have this additivity property, not just the first three.

Sample moments For all k, the th raw moment of a population can be estimated using the th raw sample moment

applied to a sample drawn from the population.

It can be shown that the expected value of the raw sample moment is equal to the th raw moment of the population, if that moment exists, for any sample size . It is thus an unbiased estimator. This contrasts with the situation for central moments, whose computation uses up a degree of freedom by using the sample mean. So for example an unbiased estimate of the population variance (the second central moment) is given by

in which the previous denominator has been replaced by the degrees of freedom , and in which refers to the sample mean. This estimate of the population moment is greater than the unadjusted observed sample moment by a factor of and it is referred to as the "adjusted sample variance" or sometimes simply the "sample variance".

Problem of moments

Problems of determining a probability distribution from its sequence of moments are called problem of moments. Such problems were first discussed by P.L. Chebyshev (1874)Feller, W. (1957-1971). An introduction to probability theory and its applications. New York: John Wiley & Sons. 419 p. in connection with research on limit theorems. In order that the probability distribution of a random variable be uniquely defined by its moments it is sufficient, for example, that Carleman's condition be satisfied:

A similar result even holds for moments of random vectors. The problem of moments seeks characterizations of sequences that are sequences of moments of some function , all moments of which are finite, and for each integer let

where is finite. Then there is a sequence that weakly converges to a distribution function having as its moments. If the moments determine uniquely, then the sequence weakly converges to .

Moment (statistics)

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