A regional election was held in the Community of Madrid on 25 May 2003 to elect the 6th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 111 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

As a result of the election, the People's Party (PP) lost its absolute majority in the Assembly, thus leaving the way open for a coalition government be formed between the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and United Left (IU). A major political scandal ensued after two PSOE deputies—Eduardo Tamayo and María Teresa Sáez—broke party discipline and refused to support PSOE regional leader Rafael Simancas's investiture. The prospective PSOE–IU alliance found itself commanding 54 seats against the 55-strong PP, which could not bring its candidate, Esperanza Aguirre, through an investiture vote as the rebel PSOE deputies would not vote for her either. With no candidate able to obtain the required votes to become president, the regional Assembly was dissolved on 28 August 2003 and a snap election was held in October 2003.

Background The PP had replaced the PSOE in government after 12 years of Socialist rule as a result of the 1995 election. In the 1999 election, the PP, under Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, managed to maintain their absolute majority, despite the opposition PSOE recovering lost ground. For the 2003 election, the ruling PP had switched leadership: President Ruiz-Gallardón ran as candidate for the office of Mayor of Madrid, while senator and former minister Esperanza Aguirre was selected to lead the regional list.

Overview Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..

Date The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).; . The previous election was held on 13 June 1999, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 25 May 2003.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election had been called and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.; . Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances did not alter the date of the chamber's next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.; .

The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially called on 1 April 2003 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCM, setting election day for 25 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 10 June..

Electoral system Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ).

The Assembly of Madrid had one seat per 50,000 inhabitants or fraction above 25,000. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.; . As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly was entitled to 111 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2002)..

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).

Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

+ Parliamentary composition in April 2003 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group PP 55 55 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 39 39 United Left Parliamentary Group IUCM 8 8

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ).

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP Esperanza Aguirre ConservatismChristian democracy 51.1% PSOE Rafael Simancas Social democracy 36.4% IUCM Fausto Fernández SocialismCommunism 7.7%

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 56 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (52 in the 1999 election).

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout LV Lead May 2003 regional election 25 May 2003 69.3 46.7 40.0 7.7 1.4 6.7 Sigma Dos/Antena 3 25 May 2003????? –? Ipsos–Eco/RTVE 25 May 2003????? –? Opina/El País 18 May 2003?? 46.0 40.0 7.5 – 6.0 Demoscopia/PP 17 May 2003?? 44.5–45.5 41.0–42.0 6.0–7.0 3.0–4.0 3.5 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 8–13 May 2003 800? 47.8 41.2 7.1 – 6.6 Opina/Cadena SER 11 May 2003?? 47.0 38.0 8.0 – 9.0 Vox Pública/El Periódico 28 Apr 2003 805? 44.5–45.5 42.5–43.5 6.5–7.5 – 2.0 CIS 22 Mar–28 Apr 2003 1,190 73.2 43.6 40.6 8.5 – 3.0 Ipsos–Eco/ABC 22–24 Apr 2003?? 42.9 43.2 8.6 – 0.3 Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 18 Jan 2003?? 48.3 42.2 7.8 – 6.1 Demoscopia/CEIM 18–25 Oct 2002 2,471? 49.5 39.2 5.7 3.5 10.3 CIS 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 808 70.1 47.1 37.9 7.7 – 9.2 Opina/El País 29 Sep 2002?? 48.0 44.0 5.5 – 4.0 Ipsos–Eco/ABC 6–13 Sep 2002 2,010? 47.9 39.2 7.7 – 8.7 Demoscopia/CEIM 27 Aug–10 Sep 2001 1,800? 50.9 37.7 8.4 – 13.2 Inner Line/PSOE 5 May–17 Jun 2001 2,100? 46.0 41.0 10.0 – 5.0 2000 general election 12 Mar 2000 72.1 52.5 33.1 9.1 0.8 19.4 1999 regional election 13 Jun 1999 60.9 51.1 36.4 7.7 0.7 14.7

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead May 2003 regional election 25 May 2003 31.9 27.4 5.2 29.0 4.5 CIS 22 Mar–28 Apr 2003 1,190 26.2 25.4 6.6 28.2 7.0 0.8 Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia 18 Jan 2003? 26.4 23.6 3.8 – – 2.8 CIS 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 808 25.4 24.5 6.3 26.7 11.0 0.9 2000 general election 12 Mar 2000 38.4 24.1 6.7 26.6 14.3 1999 regional election 13 Jun 1999 31.0 22.1 4.7 38.1 8.9

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead Opina/Cadena SER 11 May 2003? 36.2 29.6 5.1 5.5 23.6 6.6 CIS 22 Mar–28 Apr 2003 1,190 34.2 34.5 7.9 6.2 17.1 0.3 Ipsos–Eco/ABC 22–24 Apr 2003? 35.3 38.3 7.3 2.8 16.3 3.0

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead Opina/Cadena SER 11 May 2003? 49.4 19.4 0.6 0.6 29.9 30.0 CIS 22 Mar–28 Apr 2003 1,190 42.4 26.9 0.0 0.3 30.6 15.5 Ipsos–Eco/ABC 22–24 Apr 2003? 49.9 28.9 – 1.6 19.6 21.0 Ipsos–Eco/ABC 6–13 Sep 2002 2,010 56.3 13.7 – 0.9 29.2 42.6

Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/Cadena SER 11 May 2003? 34.0 24.1 3.7 2.2 36.1 9.9 Vox Pública/El Periódico 28 Apr 2003 805 36.0 25.8 – 38.2 10.2 CIS 22 Mar–28 Apr 2003 1,190 23.0 23.9 3.9 15.5 33.5 0.9

Predicted President The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/Cadena SER 11 May 2003? 43.4 19.2 0.8 1.0 35.5 24.2 Vox Pública/El Periódico 28 Apr 2003 805 43.5 20.7 – 35.8 22.8

Results Overall + ← Summary of the 25 May 2003 Assembly of Madrid election results → Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats Votes % ±pp Total +/− People's Party (PP) 1,429,890 46.67 −4.40 55 ±0 Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 1,225,390 39.99 +3.56 47 +8 United Left of the Community of Madrid (IUCM) 235,428 7.68 −0.01 9 +1 The Greens (LV) 42,322 1.38 +0.69 0 ±0 The Greens of the Community of Madrid (LVCM) 28,207 0.92 New 0 ±0 Democratic and Social Centre (CDS) 6,696 0.22 −0.10 0 ±0 The Phalanx (FE) 4,047 0.13 −0.02 0 ±0 Family and Life Party (PFyV) 3,994 0.13 New 0 ±0 Spanish Democratic Party (PADE) 3,533 0.12 +0.02 0 ±0 National Democracy (DN) 3,285 0.11 New 0 ±0 Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 2,491 0.08 −0.04 0 ±0 Independent Spanish Phalanx–Phalanx 2000 (FEI–FE 2000) 2,448 0.08 −0.01 0 ±0 Republican Left (IR) 2,342 0.08 New 0 ±0 Party Association of Widows and Legal Wives (PAVIEL) 2,210 0.07 New 0 ±0 Humanist Party (PH) 2,172 0.07 −0.03 0 ±0 Madrilenian Independent Regional Party (PRIM) 2,096 0.07 −0.01 0 ±0 Citizen Unity (UC) 1,943 0.06 −0.01 0 ±0 Commoners' Land–Castilian Nationalist Party (TC–PNC) 1,776 0.06 New 0 ±0 Another Democracy is Possible (ODeP) 1,749 0.06 New 0 ±0 Castilian Left (IzCa) 1,119 0.04 New 0 ±0 Blank ballots 60,942 1.99 −0.11 Total 3,064,080 111 +9 Valid votes 3,064,080 99.55 +0.04 Invalid votes 13,972 0.45 −0.04 Votes cast / turnout 3,078,052 69.27 +8.39 Abstentions 1,365,481 30.73 −8.39 Registered voters 4,443,533 Sources

Elected legislators The following table lists the elected legislators sorted by order of election: