Predictions of apocalyptic events that will result in the extinction of humanity, a collapse of civilization, or the destruction of the planet have been made since at least the beginning of the Common Era. Most predictions are related to Abrahamic religions, often standing for or similar to the eschatological events described in their scriptures. Christian predictions typically refer to events like the Rapture, Great Tribulation, Last Judgment, and the Second Coming of Christ. End-time events are normally predicted to occur within the lifetime of the person making the prediction and are usually made using the Bible—in particular the New Testament—as either the primary or exclusive source for the predictions. This often takes the form of mathematical calculations, such as trying to calculate the point in time where it will have been 6,000 years since the supposed creation of the Earth by the Abrahamic God, which according to the Talmud marks the deadline for the Messiah to appear. Predictions of the end from natural events have also been theorised by various scientists and scientific groups. While these predictions are generally accepted as plausible within the scientific community, the events and phenomena are not expected to occur for hundreds of thousands, or even billions, of years from now.
Little research has been carried out into the reasons people have made apocalyptic predictions in modern times. Historically, such predictions have been made for the purpose of diverting attention from actual crises like poverty and war, pushing political agendas, or promoting hatred of certain groups; antisemitism was a popular theme of Christian apocalyptic predictions in medieval times, while some French and Lutheran depictions of the apocalypse were known to feature English and Catholic antagonists, respectively. According to psychologists, possible explanations for why people believe in modern apocalyptic predictions include: mentally reducing the actual danger in the world to a single and definable source; an innate human fascination with fear; personality traits of paranoia and powerlessness; and a modern romanticism related to end-times, resulting from its portrayal in contemporary fiction. The prevalence of Abrahamic religions throughout modern history is said to have created a culture that encourages the embracement of a future drastically different from the present. Such a culture is credited for the rise in popularity of predictions that are more secular in nature, such as the 2012 phenomenon, while maintaining the centuries-old theme that a powerful force will bring about the end of humanity.
In 2012, opinion polls conducted across 20 countries found that over 14% of people believe the world will end in their lifetime, with percentages ranging from 6% of people in France to 22% in the United States and Turkey. Belief in the apocalypse is most prevalent in people with lower levels of education, lower household incomes, and those under the age of 35. In the United Kingdom in 2015, 23% of the general public believed the apocalypse was likely to occur in their lifetime, compared to 10% of experts from the Global Challenges Foundation. The general public believed the likeliest cause would be nuclear war, while experts thought it would be artificial intelligence. Only 3% of Britons thought the end would be caused by the Last Judgement, compared with 16% of Americans. Up to 3% of the people surveyed in both the UK and the US thought the apocalypse would be caused by zombies or alien invasion.
Past predictions First millennium CE Date(s) (CE) Claimant(s) Description 66–70Simon bar Giora, Jewish EssenesThe Jewish Essene sect of ascetics saw the Jewish uprising against the Romans in 66–70 in Judea as the final end-time battle which would bring about the arrival of the Messiah. By the authority of Simon, coins were minted declaring the redemption of Israel.365Hilary of PoitiersThis French bishop announced that the end of the world would happen during this year.375–400Martin of ToursThis French bishop stated that the world would end before 400 AD, writing, "There is no doubt that the Antichrist has already been born. Firmly established already in his early years, he will, after reaching maturity, achieve supreme power."500Hippolytus of Rome, Sextus Julius Africanus, IrenaeusAll three predicted that Jesus would return in this year, with one of the predictions being based on the dimensions of Noah's Ark.6 Apr 793Beatus of LiébanaThis Spanish monk prophesied the Second Coming of Christ and the end of the world on that day in front of a large crowd of people.800Sextus Julius AfricanusThis Christian historian revised his prediction from the year 500 to 800.799–806Gregory of ToursThis French bishop calculated that the end would occur between 799 and 806.847ThiotaThis Christian declared in 847 that the world would end that year, though later confessed that the prediction was fraudulent and was publicly flogged.992–995Various ChristiansGood Friday coincided with the Feast of the Annunciation; this had long been believed to be the event that would bring forth the Antichrist, and thus the end-times, within three years.1 Jan 1000Pope Sylvester IIVarious Christian clerics predicted this date as the Millennium, including Pope Sylvester II. As a result, riots are said to have occurred in Europe and pilgrims headed east to Jerusalem. Many historians, however, dispute that any of these events ever took place.
11th–15th centuries Date(s) (CE) Claimant(s) Description 1033Various ChristiansFollowing the failure of the 1 January 1000 prediction, some theorists proposed that the end would occur 1,000 years after Jesus' death, instead of his birth.1200–1260Joachim of FioreThis Italian mystic determined that the Millennium would begin between 1200 and 1260.1284Pope Innocent IIIPope Innocent III (died 1216) predicted that the world would end 666 years after the rise of Islam.1290, 1335JoachimitesAfter his 1260 prediction failed, the followers of Joachim of Fiore rescheduled the end of the world to 1290 and then again to 1335.1346–1351Various EuropeansThe black plague spreading across Europe was interpreted by many as the sign of the end of times.1368–1370Jean de RoquetailladeThis French alchemist predicted that the Antichrist was to come in 1366 and that the Millennium would begin either in 1368 or 1370.1378Arnaldus de Villa NovaThis Joachite wrote that the Antichrist was to come during this year.1492Various Russian ChristiansMany Russian Orthodox Christians beginning from the 1400s believed this year would see Christ's return, since it would be the end of the seventh millennium and the start of the eighth millennium (the year 8000) according to the Byzantine calendar. In 1408, this belief led to the Russian Orthodox Church making the decision not to compute the date of Easter beyond 1491.
16th century Date(s) (CE) Claimant(s) Description 1504Sandro BotticelliThis painter believed he was living during the Tribulation, and that the Millennium would begin in three and a half years from 1500. He wrote into his painting The Mystical Nativity that the Devil was loose and would soon be chained.1 Feb 1524London astrologersA group of astrologers in London predicted that the world would end by a flood starting in London, based on calculations made the previous June. Twenty thousand Londoners left their homes and headed for higher ground in anticipation.20 Feb 1524Johannes StöfflerA planetary alignment in Pisces was seen by this astrologer as a sign of the Millennium.1524–1526Thomas Müntzer1525 would mark the beginning of the Millennium, according to this Anabaptist. His followers were killed by cannon fire in an uneven battle with government troops. He died under torture and was beheaded.Hans HutThis German Anabaptist predicted that the end would occur on this date.1528Johannes StöfflerA revised date from Stöffler after his 1524 prediction failed to come true.19 Oct 1533Michael StifelThis mathematician calculated that Judgement Day would begin at 8:00 am on this day.1533Melchior HoffmanThis Anabaptist prophet predicted Christ's Second Coming to take place this year in Strasbourg. He claimed that 144,000 people would be saved, while the rest of the world would be consumed by fire.5 Apr 1534Jan MatthysDuring the Münster rebellion, this Anabaptist leader declared that the apocalypse would take place on this day. When the day came he led a failed attack against Franz von Waldeck and was decapitated.1555Pierre d'AillyAround 1400, this French theologian wrote that 6845 years of human history had already passed, and the end of the world would be in the 7000th year.1585Michael ServetusIn his book The Restoration of Christianity, the Spanish born reformer claimed that the Devil's reign in this world had started in 325 AD, at the Council of Nicea, and would last for 1260 years, thus ending in 1585.1588RegiomontanusThis mathematician and astronomer predicted the end of the world during this year.1600Martin LutherLuther, a German priest and professor of theology, predicted that the end of the world would occur no later than 1600.
17th century Date(s) (CE) Claimant(s) Description 1 Feb 1624London astrologersThe same astrologers who had predicted the deluge of 1 February 1524 recalculated the date to 100 years later after their first prophecy failed.1648Sabbatai ZeviUsing the kabbalah, this rabbi from Turkey proclaimed that the Messiah would come during that year.1651Unknown author from Lübeck, GermanyThe apocalypse maps tell of an Antichrist, the rise of Islam and other events following Judgement Day that was predicted to occur in 1651.1654Helisaeus RoeslinThis physician made a prediction that the world would end this year based on a nova that occurred in 1572.1656Christopher ColumbusIn his Book of Prophecies (1501), Columbus predicted that the world would end during this year.1655–1657Fifth MonarchistsThis group of radical Christians predicted that the final apocalyptic battle and the destruction of the Antichrist were to take place between 1655 and 1657.1658Christopher ColumbusColumbus claimed that the world was created in 5343 BCE and would last 7,000 years. Assuming no year zero, that means the end would come in 1658.1660Joseph MedeMede claimed that the Antichrist had appeared in 456, and the end would come in 1660.1666Sabbatai ZeviFollowing his failed prediction of 1648, Zevi recalculated the end of the Earth for this year.Fifth MonarchistsThe presence of 666 in the date, the death of 100,000 Londoners to bubonic plague, and the Great Fire of London led to superstitious fears of the end of the world from some Christians.1673William AspinwallThis Fifth Monarchist claimed that the Millennium would begin by this year.1688John NapierThis mathematician calculated that the end of the world would be on this year based on calculations from the Book of Revelation.1689Pierre JurieuThis prophet predicted that Judgement Day would occur this year.1694John MasonThis Anglican priest predicted that the Millennium would begin by this year.Johann Heinrich AlstedThis Calvinist minister predicted that the Millennium would begin by this year.Johann Jacob ZimmermannBelieved that Jesus would return and that the world would end this year.1697Cotton MatherThis Puritan minister predicted that the world would end this year. After the prediction failed, he revised the date of the end two more times.
18th century