A regional election was held in the Community of Madrid on 22 May 2011 to elect the 9th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 129 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

The election was won by the People's Party (PP), which had formed the regional government since the 1995 election. Overall, the PP under incumbent President Esperanza Aguirre won 72 seats, although the party's overall vote share decreased. In contrast, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) under former Mayor of Parla Tomás Gómez had their worst result in terms of votes and seats up until that date. The third largest party, United Left (IU), polled their highest share of the vote since 1995, whereas Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), a party formed after the 2007 election, surpassed the 5% threshold and entered the Assembly for the first time.

Overview Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..

Date The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).; . The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 22 May 2011.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election had been called and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, which was to be held on the first Sunday 54 days after the call.; . Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances did not alter the date of the chamber's next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.; .

The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially called on 29 March 2011 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCM, setting election day for 22 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 7 June..

Electoral system Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ). Amendments earlier in 2011 required non-resident citizens to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting ()..

The Assembly of Madrid had one seat per 50,000 inhabitants or fraction above 25,000. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.; . As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly was entitled to 129 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2010)..

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).

Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

+ Parliamentary composition in March 2011 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group PP 64 64 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 42 42 United Left Parliamentary Group IUCM 11 11 Non-Inscrits INDEP 3 3

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ). Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition..

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP Esperanza Aguirre ConservatismChristian democracy 53.3% PSOE Tomás Gómez Social democracy 33.6% IUCM–LV Gregorio Gordo SocialismCommunism 8.9% UPyD Luis de Velasco Social liberalismRadical centrism colspan="2"

Campaign Debates + 2011 Madrilenian regional election debates Date Organizer(s) Moderator(s) PP PSOE IUCM–LV Audience 8 May Telemadrid Víctor Arribas 6.4%

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 65 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (61 in the 2007 election).

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2011 regional election 22 May 2011 65.9 51.7 26.3 9.6 6.3 25.4 Ipsos–Eco/FORTA 22 May 2011?? 52.6 25.0 9.8 6.0 27.6 NC Report/La Razón 3–10 May 2011?? 54.8 28.8?? 26.0 Metroscopia/El País 28–29 Apr 2011 600? 53.4 29.1 9.7 4.3 24.3 GAD/COPE 28 Apr 2011?? 54.0 28.3 10.6 3.1 25.7 Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 25–28 Apr 2011 1,200? 52.3 33.3 7.0 3.4 19.0 TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 25–26 Apr 2011 1,000? 54.5 29.3 8.6 3.2 25.2 NC Report/La Razón 25 Apr 2011?? 55.1 28.3 9.4 4.8 26.8 Ikerfel/Vocento 15–20 Apr 2011 1,550? 54.6 30.4 7.3 3.7 24.2 Celeste-Tel/Terra 13–20 Apr 2011 600? 54.1 28.3 9.4 5.8 25.8 CIS 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 1,528? 52.1 28.4 9.1 3.7 23.7 Metroscopia/CEIM 6–15 Apr 2011 4,100? 53.9 27.1 9.9 4.4 26.8 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 11–14 Apr 2011 500? 55.1 28.8 8.4 2.9 26.3 NC Report/La Razón 23–25 Feb 2011 1,000 69.1 54.9 28.5 9.7 4.4 26.4 NC Report/La Razón 24–27 Jan 2011 1,000 68.6 54.5 28.8 9.7 4.5 25.7 DYM/ABC 20–30 Dec 2010 514? 54.5 29.8 10.9 3.0 24.7 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 27–29 Dec 2010 500? 54.6 29.7 9.8 2.3 24.9 Metroscopia/El País 8–18 Nov 2010 3,605? 52.9 32.8 7.6 3.6 20.1 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 6–7 Oct 2010 800? 55.4 29.8 7.2 4.0 25.6 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 24–26 May 2010 500? 56.2 25.5 10.2 4.6 30.7 Metroscopia/El País 2 May 2010?? 50.6 32.9 9.0 6.2 17.7 Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 22 Mar–13 Apr 2010 804? 48.9 34.0 9.3 4.5 14.9 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 4–5 Nov 2009 500? 51.2 32.3 8.2 5.0 18.9 2009 EP election 7 Jun 2009 50.4 48.6 35.6 4.5 6.9 13.0 Metroscopia/El País 29 Apr 2009 400? 50.6 32.8 10.6 – 17.8 2008 general election 9 Mar 2008 79.1 49.2 39.7 4.7 3.7 9.5 2007 regional election 27 May 2007 67.3 53.3 33.6 8.9 – 19.7

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2011 regional election 22 May 2011 34.8 17.6 6.5 4.2 31.7 17.2 Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 25–28 Apr 2011 1,200 39.5 24.9 4.3 2.3 – – 14.6 CIS 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 1,528 31.9 17.2 4.8 2.9 29.5 8.4 14.7 Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 22 Mar–13 Apr 2010 804 34.4 24.3 6.6 2.7 – – 10.1 2009 EP election 7 Jun 2009 25.1 18.3 2.3 3.5 48.3 6.8 2008 general election 9 Mar 2008 39.7 31.8 3.8 3.0 19.1 7.9 2007 regional election 27 May 2007 36.5 22.9 6.1 – 31.7 13.6

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CIS 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 1,528 36.3 22.2 5.8 2.7 14.9 18.0 14.1

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead GAD/COPE 28 Apr 2011? 81.6 7.3 – – 11.1 74.3 CIS 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 1,528 79.1 3.7 0.2 0.1 0.4 16.5 75.4

Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

All candidates

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead CIS 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 1,528 40.7 19.5 2.8 0.8 13.0 23.2 21.2

Aguirre vs. Gómez

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead GAD/COPE 28 Apr 2011? 51.3 24.8 23.9 26.5 Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 25–28 Apr 2011 1,200 47.4 31.7 20.9 15.7 DYM/ABC 20–30 Dec 2010 514 42.0 32.0 – 26.0 10.0 Metroscopia/El País 12 Sep 2010? 51.6 32.2 16.2 19.4 Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 22 Mar–13 Apr 2010 804 37.6 23.8 38.6 13.8

Aguirre vs. Jiménez

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Metroscopia/El País 12 Sep 2010? 48.3 38.7 13.0 9.6

Predicted President The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 25–28 Apr 2011 1,200 80.0 6.3 13.7 73.7 Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público 22 Mar–13 Apr 2010 804 70.9 6.2 22.9 64.7

Results Overall