2011 Portuguese legislative election

The 2011 Portuguese legislative election was held on 5 June, to elect all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic. Pedro Passos Coelho led the centre-right Social Democratic Party to victory over the Socialist Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates."Portugal PM quits after losing austerity vote", Al Jazeera, 23 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011. The conservative Social Democrats won with almost 39 percent of the votes, securing 108 seats, with the result exceeding opinion poll forecasts. The right-wing won a clear majority, with the CDS – People's Party also polling strongly, and achieving its best result since 1983. Of the twenty districts of the country, Pedro Passos Coelho's party won seventeen, including the large districts of Lisbon and Porto.

The defeat of the PS was severe, as they lost in eleven districts and fell below 30 percent of the votes cast, a first since the election of 1991. This heavy defeat led José Sócrates to resign as general secretary of the party on election night. However, it was not the Socialists' worst result, which dated back to 1987 when they polled 30 points behind the Social Democrats. The Socialists were also beaten in José Sócrates district, Castelo Branco, that he dominated since 1995.

For the left-wing parties, the result was mixed. On one hand, the Left Bloc faced a huge setback, losing half of its MPs and going back to its 2005 numbers, while the communist Unitary Democratic Coalition remained stable. Overall, the left-wing parties were ten points behind the right-wing parties, the largest difference since the absolute majority of Social Democrat Aníbal Cavaco Silva in the early 1990s. Voter turnout was one of the lowest in Portuguese election history, with just 58 percent of the electorate casting their ballot on election day.

Background

The previous parliamentary election was held in September 2009, and, as such, technically no election was due until September or October 2013. However, the 2009 election resulted in a hung parliament, as the Socialist Party (PS) continued to be the most voted force but lost the majority it previously had in the chamber. A minority government supported by the PS and headed by José Sócrates was formed, relying on negotiations with the opposition parties (namely the major opposition party PSD) to approve the most important and/or controversial bills, such as the State Budgets for 2010 and 2011, at a time of profound fiscal problems and recession. On social issues, same-sex marriages was legalized by Parliament in June 2010. As it was the case in his first term, Sócrates name was involved in a new corruption investigation, Face Oculta, and although he was cleared of any wrongdoing, authorities continued to investigate the then Prime Minister, which ended in the case that would lead to his arrest in 2014.

Fall of the government

In March 2011, when the government had tried to introduce another Stability and Growth Pact (PEC), but without consultation with the president and parliament, opposition parties called for a resolution vote. The vote came over proposed spending cuts and tax hikes that had been demanded by the EU to offer a bailout over Portugal's debt levels amidst the European sovereign debt crisis. PM José Sócrates had previously said that if the measure failed he would not be able to govern anymore. All five opposition parties combined to vote down the measure. With all other parties voting against the government, the Socialist Party was unable to avoid defeat as it only had 97 MPs in the 230-seat parliament. Following the vote in parliament on the evening of 23 March, Sócrates stepped down, reiterating that he could no longer govern the country: "Today every opposition party rejected the measures proposed by the government to prevent that Portugal resort to external aid. The opposition removed from the government the conditions to govern. As a result, I have tendered my resignation to the president." The main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), tipped the scales against the government by voting against the package, despite having abstained when voting previous austerity measures.

Following the vote, European markets read the move as making a possible 50–70 billion euroNeuger, James; Lima, Joao; "Portugal Is Said to Require as Much as $99 Billion in Any European Bailout", Bloomberg, 25 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011 bailout "inevitable", the day before a European Union summit concerning the debt crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised Socrates for his "far-reaching" austerity bill in parliament, while Portuguese two-year bond yields increased to the highest rate since 1999 on speculation of possible further credit downgrades.Lima, Joao; Reis, Anabela; "Portugal Pushed Closer to EU Bailout After Socrates Budget Cuts Defeated", Bloomberg, 24 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.Kansas, Dave; "Portugal's Government Falls on Budget Dispute, Stocks Rise", The Wall Street Journal, 24 March 2011, accessed 24 March 2011.Campos, Rodrigo; "GLOBAL MARKETS-World shares jump; euro up on Portugal optimism", Reuters, 24 March 2011. Accessed 24 March 2011.

President Aníbal Cavaco Silva then met with the various political parties to either resolve the crisis, or dissolve the parliament and call an early election, which, according to the Portuguese Constitution, would be held no sooner than 55 days after the announcement.Tremlett, Giles; "Portugal in crisis after prime minister resigns over austerity measures", The Guardian, 23 March 2011. Accessed 24 March 2011.Lewis, Jeffrey T.; MacDonald, Alex; Kowsmann, Patricia; "Portuguese Leaders Scramble to Avoid Bailout", WSJ, 25 March 2011. Accessed 1 April 2011. On 1 April, the president set 5 June as the date for an early election, deeming it the only way to create the conditions for a new government.Kowsmann, Patricia; MacDonald, Alex; "Portugal Sets Vote as Crisis Deepens", WSJ, 1 April 2011. Accessed 1 April 2011.

Following the call for an election, Sócrates finally made a request for a bailout from the EU on 6 April, as the country's sovereign bond yield hit a record high; Portugal became the third EU state after Greece and Ireland, respectively, to request an EU bailout. Sócrates said in a nationwide television address that his caretaker government had formally requested a bailout as it was "inevitable" and that "I tried everything, but in conscience we have reached a moment when not taking this decision would imply risks that the country should not take." The Social Democrats' leader, Pedro Passos Coelho, said that his party would support the aid request; the International Monetary Fund also added that it was ready to support the assistance requested by Portugal. Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos also said that Portugal would need the European Union support to avoid defaulting on its debt. In response, the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said the action was "a responsible move" and that the specific amount of aid money would soon be determined. European Union officials suggested that they hoped a deal would be finalised by the middle of May with an expected bailout of around 80 billion euros.

Leadership changes and challenges Social Democratic Party

The then PSD leader Manuela Ferreira Leite declined to run for another term, and a new election to elect a new party leader was called for 26 March 2010."Militantes do PSD escolhem 18º líder, successor de Ferreira Leite ", SIC Notícias, 26 March 2010. Retrieved 17 November 2021. Pedro Passos Coelho, second place holder in 2008, won the elections by a landslide."Passos Coelho, novo líder do PSD, convida Rangel e Aguiar-Branco para órgãos nacionais ", SIC Notícias, 27 March 2010. Retrieved 17 November 2021. The results were the following:

Socialist Party

Then party leader, and Prime Minister, José Sócrates ran for another term as leader, and faced a challenge from three party members: Jacinto Serrão, Fonseca Ferreira and António Brotas. The ballot was held on 25 and 26 March 2011, just two days after Sócrates announced his resignation following a negative vote on his policy measures in Parliament. Sócrates was re-elected with 92% of the votes, while the other candidates all polled below 4%.

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Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"

For these elections, and compared with the 2009 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following: District Number of MPs Map Lisbon 47 Porto 39 Braga 19 Setúbal 17 Aveiro 16 Leiria and Santarém 10 Viseu, Coimbra and Faro 9 Madeira and Viana do Castelo 6 Azores and Vila Real 5 Castelo Branco and Guarda 4 Beja, Bragança and Évora 3 Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties As in previous elections, the possibility of a joint PSD/CDS–PP coalition resurfaced, but was again rejected by the Social Democrats (PSD), while CDS–PP showed openness to the idea. The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 11th legislature (2009–2011) and that also partook in the election: Name Ideology Political position Leader 2009 result % Seats PS Socialist Party Social democracyThird Way Centre-left to Centre José Sócrates 36.6% PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party Centre-right Pedro Passos Coelho 29.1% CDS–PP CDS – People's Party Christian democracyConservatism Paulo Portas 10.4% BE Left Bloc Left-wing Francisco Louçã 9.8% PCP Portuguese Communist Party CommunismMarxism–Leninism Far-left Jerónimo de Sousa7.9% PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens" Eco-socialismGreen politicsLeft-wing Heloísa Apolónia

2011 Portuguese legislative election

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