2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico

The 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a sixth term and this was the first open seat since 1928 at this seat. Democratic U.S. Representative Martin Heinrich won the open seat.

Background Incumbent Jeff Bingaman won re-election to a fifth term with 70.61% of the vote against Allen McCulloch in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in New Mexico.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared Hector Balderas, state auditor Martin Heinrich, U.S. representative

Withdrew Martin Chávez, former Albuquerque mayor and 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee (withdrew to run for U.S. House) Andres Valdez, anti-police brutality social justice activist

Declined Jeff Bingaman, incumbent U.S. senator Diane Denish, former New Mexico lieutenant governor and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ben Ray Luján, U.S. representative

Polling Poll source HectorBalderas MartinHeinrich Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 24% 47% — 29%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies July 17–18, 2011 636 ± 3.9% 21% 54% — 25%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 309 ± 5.6% 30% 47% — 23%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 270 ± 6% 27% 51% — 22%Albuquerque Journal/Research & PollingAlbuquerque Journal/Research & Polling May 21–24, 2012 741 ± 3.6% 26% 51% — 23%

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared Greg Sowards, businessman Heather Wilson, former U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Withdrew Bill English, businessman John Sanchez, lieutenant governor of New Mexico and nominee for governor in 2002

Declined Janice Arnold-Jones, former state representative Gary Johnson, former governor (ran for president) Steve Pearce, U.S. representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000, and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Polling Poll source BillEnglish JohnSanchez GregSowards HeatherWilson Other UndecidedMagellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies April 26–27, 2011 801 ± 3.5% — 17% 2% 59% 11% 11%Public Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 4% 24% 8% 52% — 12%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies July 17–18, 2011 799 ± 3.5% 2% 21% 5% 56% — 16%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 300 ± 5.7% 3% 20% 6% 55% — 16%Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal May 21–24, 2012 504 ± 4.4% — — 20% 66% — 14%

Poll source BillEnglish GaryJohnson JohnSanchez GregSowards HeatherWilson Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 300 ± 5.7% 1% 31% 15% 3% 42% — 9%

Endorsements

Results

General election

Candidates Jon BarrieJon Barrie (Independent American Party), alternative medicine practitioner and Air Force veteran Martin Heinrich (D), U.S. representative Heather Wilson (R), former U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Debates Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Martin Heinrich (D) $3,883,992 $2,174,712 $1,763,753 $89,424 Heather Wilson (R) $4,048,847 $2,416,328 $1,632,517 $0 Jon Barrie (I) $705 $1,150 $0 $445 Source: Federal Election CommissionMartin Heinrich Campaign FinancesHeather Wilson Campaign FinancesJon Barrie Campaign Finances

Top contributors Top Contributors 2012 Race: New Mexico Senate, OpenSecrets Martin Heinrich Contribution Heather Wilson Contribution League of Conservation Voters $108,634 Elliott Management Corporation $29,413 JStreetPAC $67,860 Mewbourne Oil Co $25,000 University of New Mexico $24,221 Kelly PAC $15,000 Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP $23,000 Blue Cross & Blue Shield $14,050 Council for a Livable World $20,044 Devon Energy $13,250 National Rural Letter Carriers' Association $19,000 Murray Energy $12,800 Comcast Corporation $11,250 Yates Petroleum $12,600 Presbyterian Healthcare Services $11,150 Livingston Group $12,249 Intel Corp $10,500 Publix Super Markets $11,000 American Optometric Association $10,250 Westport Construction $10,500

Top industries Donors by Industries (opensecrets.org) Martin Heinrich Contribution Heather Wilson Contribution Lawyers/law firms $322,120 Retired $355,880 Retired $270,598 Oil & gas $217,500 Lobbyists $156,480 Leadership PACs $206,225 Environmental organizations $145,365 Financial institutions $163,888 Leadership PACs $100,000 Lobbyists $113,549 Health professionals $95,729 Lawyers/law firms $106,852 Pro-Israel $83,860 Real estate $95,990 Public-sector unions $67,000 Misc. finance $72,407 Democratic/Liberal $64,300 Business services $72,078 Casinos/gambling $58,550 Mining $69,200

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics November 5, 2012

Polling Poll source MartinHeinrich (D) HeatherWilson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 50% 39% — 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 732 ± 3.6% 47% 42% — 11%Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 47% 40% — 13%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports February 14, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 45% 43% 5% 7%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports April 3, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 42% 7% 6%Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 526 ± 4.3% 48% 43% — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 13–16, 2012 724 ± 3.6% 48% 43% — 9%Rasmussen Reports August 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 41% 5% 7%Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal September 3–6, 2012 667 ± 3.8% 49% 42% — 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 7–9, 2012 1,122 ± 2.9% 50% 41% — 9%We Ask AmericaWe Ask America September 25–27, 2012 1,258 ± 2.85% 52% 41% — 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 2–3, 2012 778 ± n/a% 51% 41% — 8%Rasmussen Reports October 8, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 52% 39% 4% 5%Albuquerque Poll JournalAlbuquerque Poll Journal October 9–11, 2012 658 ± 3.8% 48% 39% 4% 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 23–24, 2012 727 ± n/a% 52% 44% — 3%Albuquerque Poll JournalAlbuquerque Poll Journal October 23–25, 2012 662 ± 3.8% 50% 42% 3% 6%

with Jeff Bingaman Poll source JeffBingaman (D) GaryJohnson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 51% 40% — 9%

Poll source JeffBingaman (D) StevePearce (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 57% 34% — 9%

Poll source JeffBingaman (D) HeatherWilson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 56% 37% — 9%

with Hector Balderas Poll source HectorBalderas (D) GaryJohnson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 38% 44% — 19%

Poll source HectorBalderas (D) GregSowards (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 732 ± 3.6% 42% 28% — 30%Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 44% 30% — 27%Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 526 ± 4.3% 42% 30% — 28%

Poll source HectorBalderas (D) HeatherWilson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 732 ± 3.6% 45% 39% — 16%Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 43% 43% — 14%Rasmussen Reports February 14, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 44% 3% 9%Rasmussen Reports April 3, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 42% 43% 5% 9%Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 526 ± 4.3% 44% 43% — 12%

with Ben Ray Luján Poll source Ben RayLuján (D) GaryJohnson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 40% 45% — 9%

Poll source Ben RayLuján (D) StevePearce (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 49% 37% — 14%

Poll source Ben RayLuján (D) HeatherWilson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 48% 40% — 12%

with Martin Heinrich Poll source MartinHeinrich (D) GaryJohnson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 43% 44% — 14%Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 43% 43% — 14%

Poll source MartinHeinrich (D) StevePearce (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 4–6, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 53% 38% — 10%

Poll source MartinHeinrich (D) GregSowards (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 23–26, 2011 732 ± 3.6% 46% 34% — 20%Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 49% 31% — 20%Public Policy Polling April 19–22, 2012 526 ± 4.3% 48% 34% — 18%

Results

By county County Martin HeinrichDemocratic Heather WilsonRepublican All others Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Bernalillo 144,659 53.8% 115,514 42.9% 8,805 3.2% 29,145 10.9% 268,978 Catron 591 28.1% 1,376 65.4% 137 6.5% -785 -37.3% 2,104 Chaves 6,566 32.6% 12,791 63.5% 786 3.9% -6,225 -30.9% 20,143 Cibola 4,493 55.1% 3,256 39.9% 408 5.0% 1,237 15.2% 8,157 Colfax 2,737 47.9% 2,732 47.8% 248 4.3% 5 0.1% 5,717 Curry 3,818 28.6% 9,055 67.9% 463 3.5% -5,237 -39.3% 13,336 De Baca 291 32.6% 584 65.4% 18 2.0% -293 -32.8% 893 Doña Ana 36,579 56.2% 25,145 38.6% 3,391 5.2% 11,434 17.6% 65,115 Eddy 6,077 32.0% 12,255 64.5% 678 3.5% -6,178 -32.5% 19,010 Grant 7,049 54.9% 5,255 41.0% 525 4.1% 1,794 13.9% 12,829 Guadalupe 1,396 65.7% 656 30.9% 73 3.4% 740 34.8% 2,125 Harding 249 42.1% 322 54.4% 21 3.5% -73 -12.3% 592 Hidalgo 892 47.2% 909 48.1% 89 4.7% -17 -0.9% 1,890 Lea 4,006 23.9% 12,200 72.8% 561 3.3% -8,194 -48.9% 16,767 Lincoln 2,950 32.2% 5,797 63.2% 424 4.6% -2,847 -31.0% 91,71 Los Alamos 4,540 43.0% 5,743 54.4% 273 2.6% -1,203 -11.4% 10,556 Luna 3,494 47.3% 3,471 47.0% 418 5.6% 23 0.3% 7,383 McKinley 13,004 60.5% 7,647 35.6% 853 4.0% 5,357 24.9% 21,504 Mora 1,803 69.9% 705 27.3% 72 2.8% 1,098 42.6% 2,580 Otero 6,638 33.6% 12,084 61.2% 1,039 5.2% -5,446 -27.6% 19,761 Quay 1,385 38.1% 2,104 57.8% 150 4.1% -719 -19.7% 3,639 Rio Arriba 10,071 66.3% 4,654 30.6% 466 3.1% 5,417 35.7% 15,191 Roosevelt 1,671 28.5% 3,917 66.8% 273 4.6% -2,246 -38.3% 5,861 San Juan 14,450 31.6% 29,270 64.0% 2,036 4.4% -14,820 -32.4% 45,756 San Miguel 8,308 72.8% 2,758 24.2% 342 3.0% 5,550 48.6% 11,408 Sandoval 25,727 47.9% 26,079 48.5% 1,929 3.6% -352 -0.6% 53,735 Santa Fe 49,291 71.9% 17,456 25.5% 1,828 2.6% 31,835 46.4% 68,575 Sierra 1,984 39.3% 2,790 55.3% 273 5.4% -806 -16.0% 5,047 Socorro 3,745 52.6% 3,052 42.8% 329 4.6% 693 9.8% 7,126 Taos 11,373 75.0% 3,326 21.9% 457 3.0% 8,047 53.1% 15,156 Torrance 2,318 36.3% 3,782 59.2% 288 4.5% -1,464 -22.9% 6,388 Union 442 26.0% 1,193 70.2% 65 3.8% -751 -44.2% 1,700 Valencia 13,120 47.5% 13,381 48.5% 1,098 4.0% -261 -1.0% 27,599Total395,71751.0%351,25945.3%28,8163.7%44,4585.7%775,792 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Chaves (largest village: Roswell) Curry (largest village: Clovis) Eddy (largest city: Carlsbad) Harding (largest city: Roy) Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg) Lea (largest city: Hobbs) Lincoln (largest city: Roidoso) Otero (largest city: Alamogordo) Quay (largest city: Tucumcari) Roosevelt (largest city: Portales) Sandoval (largest city: Rancho) San Juan (largest city: Farmington) Sierra (largest city: Truth or Consequences) Torrance (largest city: Moriarty) Union (largest city: Clayton) Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas) De Baca (largest city: Fort Sumner) Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos) Catron (largest city: Reserve)

By congressional district Heinrich won two of three congressional districts. District Heinrich Wilson Representative 53.5% 43.34%Michelle Lujan Grisham 44.37% 51.15%Steve Pearce 54.15% 42.42%Ben Ray Luján

See also 2012 United States Senate elections 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

References

External links