The 2014 Tasmanian state election was held on 15 March 2014 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly. The 16-year incumbent Labor government, led by the Premier of Tasmania Lara Giddings, sought to win a fifth consecutive term in government, but was defeated by the Liberal opposition, led by Opposition Leader Will Hodgman, in a landslide victory. Also contesting the election was the Greens led by Nick McKim. The Palmer United Party made a significant effort in the election.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Elections to the Legislative Council are conducted separately from House of Assembly elections. The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Before the election, Hodgman had indicated that he would only govern in majority. ABC News election analyst Antony Green suggested Hodgman's promise could have come back to haunt him if Palmer United were to siphon off enough votes to deny the Liberals enough seats for a majority in their own right.Green, Antony. 2014 Tasmanian election preview. ABC News, 2014-01-17. However, this became moot after the Liberals picked up an additional seat in every electorate except Denison, assuring Hodgman of a secure majority. By 10:00 pm on election night, with the Liberals assured of winning at least 14 seats, Giddings conceded defeat on behalf of Labor. Ultimately, the Liberals won 15 seats, a decisive majority. Although the Liberals won just two more seats than necessary for a majority, it was considered a comprehensive victory under Tasmanian electoral practice of the time.

Hodgman took office on 31 March 2014, becoming only the fifth non-Labor premier in 80 years and only the third to govern in majority.

Later, Giddings resigned as Labor party leader, and was succeeded by outgoing Deputy Premier Bryan Green on 31 March 2014.

Date Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, in this case 7 April 2010. The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.Electoral Act 2004, section 63. Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,Electoral Act 2004, section 69. and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,Electoral Act 2004, section 70. making the last possible date 7 June 2014.

On 16 January 2014, Premier Lara Giddings announced she would recall Parliament for a single session on 28 January for the sole purpose of ensuring the validity of permits for the Bell Bay Pulp Mill. She said that once the legislation was passed, she would ask the Governor of Tasmania to prorogue the parliament and issue writs for an election to be held on 15 March. Giddings announced that Greens Nick McKim and Cassy O'Connor would be expelled from cabinet as of 17 January, that the power sharing arrangement between Labor and the Greens was over, and that Labor would no longer govern with Greens in cabinet.

The 2014 South Australian state election occurred on the same day for the third time in a row.

Background

The results from the previous election saw a tie between the two major parties, who both won ten seats. The Greens, led by Nick McKim, won five seats and held the balance of power. The outcome in all five multimember seats was two Labor, two Liberal, and one Green. The Liberals were ahead on the popular vote by a margin of over 6,700 votes and both Premier David Bartlett and Opposition Leader Hodgman agreed that Hodgman thus had the right to form a government. Labor went as far as to vote to relinquish power and advise the Governor, Peter Underwood, to summon Hodgman to be commissioned as the new premier.

However, on 9 April, Underwood recommissioned Bartlett, detailing several reasons for his decision including incumbency and a higher chance of stability. The Liberal Party tabled motions of no-confidence in parliament against the Labor government, but these were unsuccessful.Labor, Greens defeat 'no confidence' move, ABC News, 5 May 2010.

An interim cabinet was sworn in on 13 April, with Bartlett as Premier and Labor deputy leader Lara Giddings as Deputy Premier., ABC News, 13 April 2010. On 24 January 2011, Bartlett stood down from the premiership to be replaced by Giddings who was elected unopposed as Tasmania's first female Premier.

Retiring MPs

Labor Michael Polley (Lyons) – announced on 6 June 2013. Graeme Sturges (Denison) – announced on 30 June 2013.

Polling Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). Unlike other pollsters, EMRS don't "prompt" their respondents for an answer on the first request, contributing to the large "undecided" percentage. The sample size for each poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters. , EMRS, November 2013.

+House of Assembly (lower house) pollingPolitical partiesLibALPGrnPUPInd Undecided Feb 201444% 20% 15% 5% 3% 13%Nov 201344%20%17%5%4%10% Sep 201346% 25% 13% 0% 4% 12%May 201340%19%9%–2%30% Feb 201344% 23% 11% – 3% 29%Nov 201243%20%12%–2%24% Aug 201238% 18% 17% – 2% 25%May 201238%17%17%–4%25% Feb 201239% 19% 14% – 3% 25%Nov 201142%17%15%–2%24% Aug 201144% 16% 14% – 4% 22%May 201138%19%17%–4%22% Feb 201136% 20% 20% – 2% 23%Nov 201035%23%20%–3%19% Aug 201030% 29% 23% – 3% 14%May 201038%23%24%–3%12%2010 election39.0%36.9%21.6%–2.5%– Feb 201030% 23% 22% – 2% 23%Polling conducted by EMRS.

+ Preferred Premier polling^ LaborGiddings LiberalHodgman GreenMcKim Feb 2014 21%48% 13%Nov 2013 22%47% 12% Sep 2013 18%48% 12%May 2013 25%46% 10% Feb 2013 24%46% 13%Nov 2012 25%47% 11% Aug 2012 22%45% 15%May 2012 21%43% 17% Feb 2012 24%44% 15%Nov 2011 19%48% 14% Aug 2011 19%52% 13%May 2011 22%42% 18% Feb 2011 27%38% 16%Nov 2010 23%139% 21% Aug 2010 27%134% 22%May 2010 26%140% 23%2010 election––– Feb 2010 29%134% 21%Polling conducted by EMRS.^ Remainder were "uncommitted".1 David Bartlett.

Results

Primary vote percentages by division Bass Braddon Denison Franklin Lyons Labor Party 23.27% 23.24% 33.79% 28.61% 27.69% Liberal Party 57.22% 58.76% 38.28% 49.84% 51.94% Tasmanian Greens 12.72% 7.03% 21.19% 16.79% 11.40% Other 6.79% 10.97% 6.74% 4.76% 8.97%

Current distribution of seats

Electorate Seats held Bass           Braddon           Denison           Franklin           Lyons          

  Labor   Liberal   Green

Damage to ballot papers On 16 March, the day after the election, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission announced that a machine being used to open envelopes containing postal votes from the Denison electorate had been operated improperly, resulting in damage to 2,338 ballot papers. Whilst 2,175 ballot papers were repaired and admitted to the count, 163 papers were too badly damaged to be used and were counted as informal.Damage to Denison ballot papers , Tasmanian Electoral Commission, 16 March 2014.

See also Candidates of the 2014 Tasmanian state election Members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly, 2014–2018

References

External links Tasmanian Electoral Commission: House of Assembly Elections '14 2014 Tasmanian election guide: Antony Green ABC EMRS Tasmanian state polling