The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. , this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri and the last time that a governor and lieutenant governor of different political parties were simultaneously elected in Missouri. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2012.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee Jay Nixon, incumbent governor
Eliminated in primary William Campbell Clay Thunderhawk
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee Dave Spence, businessman
Eliminated in primary Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist John Weiler
Polling Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror BillRandles FredSauer DaveSpence JohnWeiler UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 4–5, 2012 590 ± 4.0% 15% 12% 42% 3% 29%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 400 ± 5.0% 15% 1% 41% 3% 40%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 430 ± 4.7% 11% 4% 32% 1% 43%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 574 ± 4.1% 15% — 11% — 74%
Results
Libertarian primary
Candidates Jim Higgins, former officer of the Libertarian Party of Missouri
Denied ballot access Leonard Steinman
Results
General election Debates Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 Inside Elections November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics November 5, 2012
Polling Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayNixon (D) DaveSpence (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 835 ± 3.4% 53% 45% — 2%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 28–November 3, 2012 589 ± 4.1% 48% 39% 5% 8%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon October 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4% 48% 42% — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 19–21, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 51% 40% — 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 1–3, 2012 700 ± 3.7% 54% 35% — 12%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 20, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 46% 37% — 16%Survey USASurvey USA August 9–12, 2012 585 ± 4.1% 51% 37% 5% 6%Chilenski StrategiesChilenski Strategies August 8, 2012 663 ± 3.8% 53% 39% — 9%Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 48% 39% — 13%Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 602 ± 4.0% 45% 34% — 21%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 47% 27% — 26%
Republican primary
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror PeterKinder BillRandles UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 34% 14% 53%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror PeterKinder Someoneelse UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 22% 35% 43%
General election Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayNixon (D) BillRandles (R) Other UndecidedMason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 50% 35% — 15%Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012 602 ± 4.0% 46% 32% — 22%Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012 582 ± 4.1% 47% 29% — 24%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 45% 24% — 30%
Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayNixon (D) MattBlunt (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 50% 37% — 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 48% 38% — 13%
Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayNixon (D) JohnDanforth (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 39% 45% — 17%
Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayNixon (D) KennyHulshof (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 51% 34% — 15%
Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayNixon (D) PeterKinder (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 50% 31% — 18%Public Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011 555 ± 3.9% 48% 34% — 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 3–6, 2011 612 ± 4.0% 45% 38% — 17%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 515 ± 4.3% 47% 39% — 14%
Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayNixon (D) SarahSteelman (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 515 ± 4.3% 46% 35% — 19% Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror JayNixon (D) JimTalent (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011 632 ± 3.9% 47% 38% — 14%
Results Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Audrain (largest city: Mexico) Clark (largest city: Kahoka) Knox (largest city: Edina) Lewis (largest city: Canton) Mississippi (largest city: Charleston) Monroe (largest city: Monroe City)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Andrew (largest city: Savannah) Atchison (largest city: Tarkio) Benton (largest city: Warsaw) Caldwell (largest city: Hamilton) Camden (largest city: Osage Beach) Carter (largest city: Van Buren) Cass (largest city: Harrisonville) Cedar (largest city: El Dorado Springs) Crawford (largest city: Cuba) Dallas (largest city: Buffalo) Daviess (largest city: Gallatin) Dent (largest city: Salem) Douglas (largest city: Ava) Gentry (largest city: Albany) Howell (largest city: West Plains) Laclede (largest city: Lebanon) Lincoln (largest city: Troy) Livingston (largest city: Chillicothe) Maries (largest city: Belle) Morgan (largest city: Versailles) Oregon (largest city: Thayer) Ozark (largest city: Gainesville) Phelps (largest city: Rolla) Polk (largest city: Bolivar) Pulaski (largest city: Fort Leonard Wood) Ripley (largest city: Doniphan) St. Clair (largest city: Appleton City) Texas (largest city: Licking) Vernon (largest city: Nevada) Webster (largest city: Marshfield)
By congressional district Nixon won five of eight congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans. District Nixon Spence Representative1st81.38%13.21%Lacy Clay2nd50.67%47.37%Todd Akin (112th Congress)Ann Wagner (113th Congress)3rd48.20%49.08%Russ Carnahan (112th Congress)Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress)4th49.16%47.46%Vicky Hartzler5th66.00%31.20%Emanuel Cleaver6th50.09%46.96%Sam Graves7th43.75%53.39%Billy Long8th48.27%49.06%Jo Ann Emerson
See also 2012 United States gubernatorial elections 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri 2012 United States presidential election in Missouri 2012 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election 2012 Missouri Attorney General election 2012 Missouri State Treasurer election 2012 Missouri Secretary of State election Political party strength in Missouri
References
External links Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State
Campaign sites (archived) Jay Nixon for Governor Dave Spence for Governor Jim Higgins for Governor