2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.

The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.

Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. The election was the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election. As of , this is the last time that Fayette County and Luzerne County voted Democratic in a Senate election. This is also the only time since 1956 that Democrats have won a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race in a presidential year.

Background On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962.

Democratic primary

Candidates Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. senator Joseph Vodvarka, spring maker

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate John Kensinger, pharmacist Sam Rohrer, former state representative from Robeson Township and candidate for governor in 2010 Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum Tom Smith, farmer and businessman and candidate for governor in 2010 Steve Welch, businessman

Withdrew Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general elections Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activist John Vernon, retired Army colonel

Declined Jake Corman, state senator Charlie Dent, U.S. representative Jim Gerlach, U.S. representative Keith Loiselle, businessman Glen Meakem, radio host Pat Meehan, U.S. representative Tim Murphy, U.S. representative Dominic Pileggi, State Senate majority leader Mark Schweiker, former Pennsylvania governor Bill Shuster, U.S. representative Mike Turzai, State House majority leader Kim Ward, state senator Joe Watkins, MSNBC contributor

Campaign In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate. The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.

Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2–1. Smith spent a wide majority of it in television advertising. Like Welch, Smith had also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years. Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes nine times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes). Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.

Sam Rohrer, a former state representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.

David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for Congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Polling Poll source TimBurns DavidChristian LaureenCummings JohnKensinger SamRohrer MarcScaringi TomSmith JohnVernon SteveWelch Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling 400 ±4.9% 15% — 2% — 25% 0% 3% 1% 1% 8% 43% February 2–6, 2012 500 ±4.4% — 1% — 3% 10% 1% 8% — 1% — 72%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 564 ±4.1% — 10% — — 16% 8% 12% — 5% — 48% March 20–25, 2012 505 ±4.2% — 1% — — 7% 1% 9% — 1% — 81%

Results

General election

Candidates Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator Rayburn Smith (Libertarian) Tom Smith (Republican), businessman

Debates Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Bob Casey, Jr. (D) $7,664,686 $2,754,060 $6,226,560 $5,261 Tom Smith (R) $7,954,211 $5,673,558 $2,280,655 $6,475,000 Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Bob Casey, Jr. Contribution Tom Smith Contribution Comcast Corp $95,175 Rosebud Mining $26,000 Blank Rome LLP $65,500 Tj Smith Trucking $15,000 Reed Smith LLP $61,800 Penneco Oil Co $12,500 Cozen O'Connor $44,975 Transportation Equipment Supply Co $11,500 University of Pennsylvania $44,450 R&S Machine Co $10,250 Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney $43,098 Citizens United $10,000 K&L Gates $42,650 Mepco LLC $10,000 Pride Mobility Products $40,250 Snyder Armclar Gas $10,000 Blue Cross & Blue Shield $39,950 Stitt Management $10,000 National Amusements Inc. $39,250 Penn Waste $10,000

Top industries

Bob Casey, Jr. Contribution Tom Smith Contribution Lawyers/law firms $2,095,026 Retired $104,725 Lobbyists $407,472 Mining $87,800 Real estate $389,559 Republican/Conservative $43,500 Health professionals $336,023 Oil & gas $40,750 Financial institutions $335,998 Misc Business $35,300 Retired $329,132 Financial institutions $25,500 Pharmaceuticals/health products $313,597 Misc. manufacturing & distributing $19,650 Hospitals/nursing homes $296,737 Leadership PACs $19,000 Entertainment industry $237,825 Misc. energy $18,000 Insurance $221,750 Trucking $15,250

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics November 5, 2012

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror BobCasey, Jr. (D) TomSmith (R) Other UndecidedAngus Reid Public Opinion November 2–4, 2012 507 ± 4.2% 53% 46% 1% —Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 790 ± 3.5% 52% 44% — 3%Muhlenberg College/Morning CallMuhlenberg College/Morning Call November 1–3, 2012 430 ± 5% 48% 42% 2% 9%Tribune-Review/SusquehannaTribune-Review/Susquehanna October 29–31, 2012 800 ± 3.4% 46% 45% 2% 8%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College October 23–28, 2012 547 ± 4.2% 46% 36% 4% 13%Philadelphia InquirerPhiladelphia Inquirer October 23–25, 2012 600 ± 4% 49% 42% — 9%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 24, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 45% — 9%Pharos ResearchPharos Research October 19–21, 2012 760 ± 3.6% 52% 42% — 6%Muhlenberg College PollMuhlenberg College Poll October 17–21, 2012 444 ± 5% 45% 37% 2% 16%Angus Reid Public OpinionAngus Reid Public Opinion October 18–20, 2012 559 ± 4.2% 51% 45% 4% —QuinnipiacQuinnipiac October 12–14, 2012 1,519 ± 2.5% 48% 45% — 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 12–14, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 50% 39% — 11%MuhlenbergMuhlenberg October 10–14, 2012 438 ± 5% 41% 39% 1% 18%Susquehanna PollingSusquehanna Polling October 11–13, 2012 1,376 ± 2.6% 46% 48% 1% 5%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 45% 1% 5%Philadelphia InquirerPhiladelphia Inquirer October 4–8, 2012 600 ± 4% 48% 38% — 14%Susquehanna PollingSusquehanna Polling October 4–6, 2012 725 ± 3.7% 46% 44% — 9%Siena PollSiena Poll October 1–5, 2012 545 ± 4.2% 44% 35% — 16%Muhlenberg CollegeMuhlenberg College September 22–26, 2012 427 ± 5% 44% 36% 7% 13%Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll September 18–24, 2012 1,180 ± 3% 49% 43% — —Franklin & MarshallFranklin & Marshall September 18–23, 2012 392 ± 4.9% 48% 38% — 8%Rasmussen Reports September 19, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 42% 2% 7%Muhlenberg CollegeMuhlenberg College September 10–16, 2012 640 ± 4% 45% 33% 5% 18%Philadelphia InquirerPhiladelphia Inquirer August 21–23, 2012 601 ± 4% 53% 34% — 13%MCall/Muhlenberg Poll August 20–22, 2012 422 ± 5% 49% 30% — 18%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College August 7–12, 2012 681 ± 3.8% 35% 23% 2% 39%QuinnipiacQuinnipiac July 24–30, 2012 1,168 ± 2.9% 55% 37% — 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 21–23, 2012 758 ± 3.6% 46% 36% — 18%Rasmussen Reports July 18, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 38% — 9%We Ask AmericaWe Ask America July 9–10, 2012 1,227 ± 2.8% 53% 39% — 8%QuinnipiacQuinnipiac June 19–25, 2012 1,252 ± 2.8% 49% 32% 1% 17%QuinnipiacQuinnipiac June 5–10, 2012 997 ± 3.1% 51% 32% 1% 14%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College May 29–June 4, 2012 412 ± 4.8% 42% 21% 2% 35%Rasmussen Reports May 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 41% 3% 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 17–20, 2012 671 ± 3.8% 49% 33% — 19%Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% 49% 31% — 20%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 48% 32% — 20%

Republican primary Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JakeCorman LaureenCummings CharlieDent JimGerlach TimMurphy RickSantorum MarcScaringi MarkSchweiker KimWard Other/UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 376 ± 5.1% 9% 5% 4% 7% 9% 47% 1% — 0% 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 3% — 8% 9% 7% 45% 1% 8% 1% 19% 9% — 10% 14% 13% — 1% 18% 2% 33%

General election

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Generic Republican Depends on the candidate UndecidedQuinnipiacQuinnipiac March 7–12, 2012 1256 ± 2.8% 46% 34% 8% 12%Morning CallMorning Call February 15–21, 2012 625 ± 4% 40% 25% 20% 14%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) TimBurns (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 49% 34% — 17%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) DavidChristian (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% 50% 32% — 18%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) JakeCorman (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 51% 35% — 14%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 51% 35% — 14%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) LaureenCummings (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 51% 31% — 18%Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 51% 32% — 17%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) CharlieDent (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 51% 31% — 18%Municipoll Municipoll February 21–23, 2011 670 ± 3.79.% 51% 32% — 17%Public Policy Polling Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% 51% 31% — 18%