Post-election pendulum for the 2006 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2006 Victorian state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor seatsMarginal Mount WaverleyMaxine MorandALP0.3% GembrookTammy LobatoALP0.7% Forest HillKirstie MarshallALP0.8% MelbourneBronwyn PikeALP v GRN1.9% MitchamTony RobinsonALP2.0% South BarwonMichael CrutchfieldALP2.3% FrankstonAlistair HarknessALP3.2% MordiallocJanice MuntALP3.5% BrunswickCarlo CarliALP v GRN3.6% PrahranTony LuptonALP3.6% RichmondRichard WynneALP v GRN3.6% BurwoodBob StensholtALP3.7% RiponJoe HelperALP4.3% Bendigo EastJacinta AllanALP5.4%Fairly safe BentleighRob HudsonALP6.3% Ballarat WestKaren OveringtonALP6.5% ElthamSteve HerbertALP6.5% Ballarat EastGeoff HowardALP6.6% CarrumJenny LindellALP6.7% MonbulkJames MerlinoALP6.7% SeymourBen HardmanALP6.7% BellarineLisa NevilleALP7.9% Yan YeanDanielle GreenALP7.9% AltonaJill HennessyALP7.9% MacedonJoanne DuncanALP8.2% GeelongIan TreziseALP8.3% NorthcoteFiona RichardsonALP v GRN8.5% Narre Warren NorthLuke DonnellanALP9.2% Albert ParkMartin FoleyALP9.5%Safe IvanhoeCraig LangdonALP10.4% Bendigo WestBob CameronALP10.6%Narre Warren SouthJudith GraleyALP10.9%NiddrieRob HullsALP11.2%CranbourneJude PereraALP11.3%EssendonJudy MaddiganALP11.7%OakleighAnn BarkerALP12.4%TarneitTim PallasALP12.5%MeltonDon NardellaALP13.5%BundooraColin BrooksALP15.1%MulgraveDaniel AndrewsALP15.8%LaraJohn ErenALP17.9%DandenongJohn PandazopoulosALP18.7%KeilorGeorge SeitzALP19.4%Very safeYurokeLiz BeattieALP20.2%ClaytonHong LimALP20.3%Mill ParkLily D'AmbrosioALP20.8%LyndhurstTim HoldingALP21.5%Pascoe ValeChristine CampbellALP22.8%DerrimutTelmo LanguillerALP24.3%WilliamstownWade NoonanALP24.3%FootscrayBruce MildenhallALP24.7%PrestonRobin ScottALP25.3%KororoitMarlene KairouzALP25.6%ThomastownPeter BatchelorALP31.1% BroadmeadowsJohn BrumbyALP31.9%Liberal/National seatsMarginalFerntree GullyNick WakelingLIB0.04%KilsythDavid HodgettLIB0.4%HastingsNeale BurgessLIB1.0%MorwellRussell NortheNAT2.2%NarracanGary BlackwoodLIB2.7%EvelynChristine FyffeLIB2.8% BayswaterHeidi VictoriaLIB2.9%South-West CoastDenis NapthineLIB4.0% Box HillRobert ClarkLIB5.2%BassKen SmithLIB5.5%Fairly safeCaulfieldHelen ShardeyLIB7.6%BenambraBill TilleyLIB7.7%DoncasterMary WooldridgeLIB8.1% BulleenNicholas KotsirasLIB8.4%SandringhamMurray ThompsonLIB8.7%WarrandyteRyan SmithLIB9.0%NepeanMartin DixonLIB9.4%KewAndrew McIntoshLIB9.6%SafePolwarthTerry MulderLIB10.7%BrightonLouise AsherLIB10.9%ScoresbyKim WellsLIB11.2%MalvernMichael O'BrienLIB11.3%MorningtonDavid MorrisLIB11.9%HawthornTed BaillieuLIB12.3%Gippsland SouthPeter RyanNAT15.8%Benalla Bill SykesNAT17.5%Very safeMilduraPeter CrispNAT20.7%Murray ValleyKen JasperNAT21.8%LowanHugh DelahuntyNAT22.1% Swan HillPeter WalshNAT23.4%SheppartonJeanette PowellNAT24.7%RodneyPaul WellerNAT24.8%Independents Gippsland EastCraig IngramIND v LIB9.1%

References