The Strauss–Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American and Western history in which historical events are associated with recurring generational personas called archetypes. Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a "turning") lasting around 21 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate ("mood") exists. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum", a long human life, which usually spans around 85 years, although some saecula have lasted longer.
The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every saeculum, which is followed by a recovery ("high"). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.
Academic response to the theory has been mixed, with some applauding Strauss and Howe for their "bold and imaginative thesis", while others have criticized the theory as being overly deterministic, unfalsifiable, and unsupported by rigorous evidence. Retrieved October 21, 2012. Retrieved January 23, 2012. The theory has been influential in the fields of generational studies, marketing, and business management literature. However, the theory has also been described by some historians and journalists as pseudoscientific, "kooky", and "an elaborate historical horoscope that will never withstand scholarly scrutiny". Academic criticism has focused on the lack of rigorous empirical evidence for their claims, as well as the authors' view that generational groupings are more powerful than other social groupings, such as economic class, race/ethnicity, sex, religion, culture, and political affiliation.
History William Strauss and Neil Howe's partnership began in the late 1980s when they began writing their first book Generations, which discusses the history of the United States as a succession of generational biographies. Each had written on generational topics previously. The authors' interest in generations as a broader topic emerged after they met in Washington, D.C.; they began discussing the connections between each of their previous works.
They attempted to find the reason why the Baby boomers and the G.I. Generation had developed such different ways of looking at the world, and what it was about these generations' experiences growing up that prompted their different outlooks. They also wanted to find patterns in previous generations, and their research discussed historical analogs to the current generations. They ultimately described a recurring pattern in the Anglo-American history of four generational types, each with a distinct collective persona, and a corresponding cycle of four different types of eras, each with a distinct "mood".
Strauss and Howe laid the groundwork for their theory in their book Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (1991), which discusses the history of the United States as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584. The theory was expanded in The Fourth Turning (1997), to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras to describe the history of the United States, including the Thirteen Colonies and their British antecedents. However, the authors have also examined generational trends elsewhere in the world and described similar cycles in several developed countries. The terminology for generational archetypes was updated (e.g. "Civics" became "Heroes", which they applied to the Millennial Generation, "Adaptives" became "Artists"), and the terms "Turning" and "Saeculum" were introduced. In July 2023, Howe released a follow-up book, titled The Fourth Turning Is Here.
In 1993, Strauss and Howe released their second book 13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?, examining Generation X (who the authors called "13ers", describing them as the thirteenth generation since the US became a nation) who were then teenagers and young adults. The book asserts that 13ers' location in history as under-protected children during the Sexual Revolution explains their pragmatic attitude. They describe Gen Xers as growing up during a time when society was less focused on children and more focused on adults and their self-actualization.
Strauss and Howe's theory made various predictions regarding Millennials, a generation consisting of young children at the time. In Generations (1991) and The Fourth Turning (1997), the two authors discussed the generation gap between Baby boomers and their parents and predicted there would be no such gap between Millennials and their elders. In 2000, they published Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation, asserting that Millennial teens were recasting the image of youth from "downbeat and alienated to upbeat and engaged", crediting increased parental attention and protection for these positive changes. The authors predicted that over the following decade, Millennials could emerge as the next "Great Generation".
In the mid-1990s, Strauss and Howe began receiving inquiries about how their research could be applied to strategic problems in organizations. They started speaking frequently about their work at events and conferences.
Defining a generation Strauss and Howe describe the history of the U.S. as a succession of Anglo-American generational biographies from 1433 to the present, and theorized a recurring generational cycle in American history. The authors posit a pattern of four repeating phases, generational types, and a recurring cycle of spiritual awakenings and secular crises, from the founding colonials of America through the present day.
Strauss and Howe define a social generation as the aggregate of all people born over a span of roughly 21 years or about the length of one phase of life: childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and old age. Generations are identified (from the first birthyear to last) by looking for cohort groups of this length that share three criteria. First, members of a generation share what the authors call an age location in history: they encounter key historical events and social trends while occupying the same phase of life. In this view, members of a generation are shaped in lasting ways by the eras they encounter as children and young adults and they share certain common beliefs and behaviors. Aware of the experiences and traits that they share with their peers, members of a generation would also share a sense of common perceived membership in that generation.
They based their definition of a generation on the work of various writers and social thinkers, from ancient writers such as Polybius and Ibn Khaldun to modern social theorists such as José Ortega y Gasset, Karl Mannheim, John Stuart Mill, Émile Littré, Auguste Comte, and François Mentré.
Turnings While writing Generations, Strauss and Howe described a theorized pattern in the historical generations they examined, which they say revolved around generational events which they call turnings. In Generations, and in greater detail in The Fourth Turning, they describe a four-stage cycle of social or mood eras which they call "turnings". The turnings include: "the high", "the awakening", "the unraveling", and "the crisis".
High According to Strauss and Howe, the first turning is a high, which occurs after a crisis. During the high, institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majoritarian center often feel stifled by conformity.
According to the authors, the most recent first turning in the US was the post–World War II American high, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963.
Awakening According to the theory, the second turning is an awakening. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of "self-awareness", "spirituality" and "personal authenticity". Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty.
Strauss and Howe say the U.S.'s most recent awakening was the "consciousness revolution", which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid-1960s to the tax revolts of the early 1980s.
Unraveling According to Strauss and Howe, the third turning is an unraveling. The mood of this era they say is in many ways the opposite of a high: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. The authors say highs come after crises when society wants to coalesce and build and avoid the death and destruction of the previous crisis. Unravelings come after awakenings when society wants to atomize and enjoy. They say the most recent unraveling in the US began in the 1980s and includes the long boom and the culture war.
Crisis According to the authors, the fourth turning is a crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects toward community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group.
The authors say the previous fourth turning in the US began with the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and climaxed with the end of World War II. The G.I. Generation (which they call a hero archetype, born 1901 to 1924) came of age during this era. They say their confidence, optimism, and collective outlook epitomized the mood of that era. The authors assert the millennial generation, which they also describe as a hero archetype, born 1982 to 2005, shows many similar traits to those of the G.I. youth, which they describe as including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.
Cycle The authors describe each turning as lasting circa 21 years. Four turnings make up a full cycle of circa 85 years, which the authors term a saeculum, after the Latin word meaning both "a long human life" and "a natural century".
Generational change drives the cycle of turnings and determines its periodicity. As each generation ages into the next life phase (and a new social role) society's mood and behavior fundamentally change, giving rise to a new turning. Historical events shape generations in childhood and young adulthood; then, as parents and leaders in midlife and old age, generations in turn shape history.
Each of the four turnings has a distinct "mood" that recurs every saeculum. Strauss and Howe describe these turnings as the "seasons of history". At one extreme is the Awakening, which is analogous to summer, and at the other extreme is the Crisis, which is analogous to winter. The High and the Unraveling are similar to spring and autumn, respectively. Strauss and Howe have discussed 26 theorized turnings over 7 saecula in Anglo-American history, from the year 1433 to today.
The core of Strauss and Howe's ideas is a basic alternation between two different types of eras, Crises and Awakenings. Both of these are defining eras in which people observe that historic events are radically altering their social environment. Crises are periods marked by major secular upheaval, when society focuses on reorganizing the outer world of institutions and public behavior. They say the last American Crisis was the period spanning the Great Depression and World War II. Awakenings are periods marked by cultural or religious renewal when society focuses on changing the inner world of values and private behavior. The last American Awakening was the "Consciousness Revolution" of the 1960s and 1970s.