2010 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

The 2010 congressional elections in New Mexico were held on November 2, 2010, and determined New Mexico's representation in the United States House of Representatives. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; the winners of the election served in the 111th Congress, which began on January 4, 2009, ended on January 3, 2011.

New Mexico has three seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Its 2009–2011 congressional delegation consisted of three Democrats and no Republicans, which changed to two Democrats and one Republican after the 2010 election.

Overview United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico, 2010PartyVotesPercentageSeats+/– Democratic 307,766 51.58% 2 -1 Republican 288,885 48.42% 1 +1 Totals 596,651 100.00% 3 —

By district Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico by district:

DistrictDemocraticRepublicanOthersTotalResult Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %District 1 112,010 51.80% 104,215 48.20% 0 0.00% 216,225 100% Democratic HoldDistrict 2 75,708 44.60% 94,053 55.40% 0 0.00% 169,761 100% Republican GainDistrict 3 120,048 56.99% 90,617 43.01% 0 0.00% 210,665 100% Democratic HoldTotal 307,766 51.58% 288,885 48.42% 0 0.00% 596,651 100%

District 1

Campaign First elected in 2008, incumbent Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich ran for re-election for the first time this year. This moderate"Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 111th Congress." The Cook Political Report. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 June 2011. <>. district, based in metro Albuquerque, has a tendency of supporting both Republican and Democratic candidates for office. In the general election, Congressman Heinrich faced Jon Barela, the Republican nominee for the seat and a former high-ranking official in the New Mexico Republican Party. Barela hammered at Heinrich for being "too far left" for what he described as a "center-right seat". The Albuquerque Journal endorsed Jon Barela in the general election, citing the fact that he "would boost the economy by nurturing predictability for investors and job creators" and urging New Mexico voters to vote for a candidate who would "[help] restore balance to Congress and [place] an emphasis on people over government programs to right the ship." Polling indicated that the race would be close, and on election day, Heinrich won a second term by nearly a four-point margin and 8,000 votes.

Polling Poll Source Dates Administered Martin Heinrich (D) Jon Barela (R) UndecidedResearch and Polling Inc.Research and Polling Inc. October 27–28, 2010 46% 49% –Public Opinion Strategies† October 24–25, 2010 47% 49% –Research and Polling Inc. September 27–30, 2010 48% 41% –Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 25–26, 2010 50% 43% 7%American Action ForumAmerican Action Forum August 23–29, 2010 49% 42% 9%Research and Polling Inc.Research and Polling Inc. August 23–27, 2010 47% 41% 12%Survey USASurvey USA July 22–25, 2010 45% 51% 4%Greenberg Quinlan Rosner ResearchGreenberg Quinlan Rosner Research† July 8–13, 2010 53% 41% –Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research† April 28 – May 2, 2010 55% 38% –Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 25, 2010 45% 36% 19% †Internal poll (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the Heinrich campaign and Public Opinion Strategies for the Barela campaign)

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2010 Rothenberg November 1, 2010 Sabato's Crystal BallCrystal Ball, November 1, 2010RCPRealClearPolitics, November 1, 2010CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010New York Times November 1, 2010FiveThirtyEight November 1, 2010

Results

District 2

Campaign This conservative-leaning district, which has historically supported Republican candidates for higher office, has been represented by moderate Democratic Congressman Harry Teague since he was first elected two years prior. The previous Congressman, Republican Steve Pearce, retired in 2008 to run for Senate, a race that he lost. Coming off from a large electoral defeat at the hands of Democrat Tom Udall, the former Congressman Pearce re-entered the political sphere and challenged Congressman Teague when he sought election to a second congressional term. A tough campaign ensued, with Pearce taking the lead in most polls. Pearce's advantage widened when the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced that it was shifting resources from the 2nd district to the 1st district, a decision that the Pearce campaign responded, "The DCCC is realizing what we knew all along. Voters do not want the Teague-Pelosi agenda of out-of-control spending and lost jobs." In late October, Congressman Teague declined to participate in a debate with Steve Pearce, giving Pearce solo airtime that was broadcast statewide and providing some observers with evidence that Teague was essentially conceding defeat to Pearce. As political prognosticators indicated, on election day, Pearce defeated the incumbent Congressman and returned to Washington for his fourth nonconsecutive term.

Polling Poll Source Dates Administered Harry Teague (D) Steve Pearce (R) UndecidedResearch and Polling Inc.Research and Polling Inc. October 27–28, 2010 45% 48% –Tarrance GroupTarrance Group† October 19–20, 2010 41% 50% 9%The Hill/ANGAThe Hill/ANGA September 28–30, 2010 42% 46% 10%Research and Polling Inc. September 27–30, 2010 44% 45% –Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 25–26, 2010 47% 48% 5%Anzalone Liszt Research September 7–9, 2010 51% 44% –Research and Polling Inc. August 23–27, 2010 45% 42% –Hamilton CampaignsHamilton Campaigns† April 6–8, 2010 47% 46% 8%Public Policy Polling February 25, 2010 41% 43% 16% Tarrance Group (Link)† February 16–18, 2010 44% 48% 8%Hamilton Campaigns† August, 2009 42% 52% 6% †Internal poll (Hamilton Campaigns polls commissioned by Teague; Tarrance Group poll for Pearce)

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2010 Rothenberg November 1, 2010 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 1, 2010RCP November 1, 2010CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010New York Times November 1, 2010FiveThirtyEight November 1, 2010

Results

District 3

Campaign Incumbent Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Luján has represented this liberal district based in northern New Mexico since he was first elected in 2008 to replace outgoing Democratic Congressman Tom Udall, who successfully ran for Senate. Seeking a second term, Congressman Luján faced Republican businessman Tom Mullins in the general election. The Albuquerque Journal endorsed Mullins, praising his plans to "trim federal spending" and "help the private sector create jobs...[by] lowering taxes." Despite this, however, Luján was able to use the district's natural liberal leanings to his advantage and won re-election to a second term in Congress.

Republican primary

Polling Poll Source Dates Administered Ben R. Luján (D) Tom Mullins (R) UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 25–26, 2010 49% 43% 8%Public Policy Polling February 25, 2010 42% 36% 22%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2010 Rothenberg November 1, 2010 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 1, 2010RCP November 1, 2010CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010New York Times November 1, 2010FiveThirtyEight November 1, 2010

Results

References

External links Elections from the New Mexico Secretary of State U.S. Congress candidates for New Mexico at Project Vote Smart New Mexico U.S. House from OurCampaigns.com Campaign contributions for U.S. Congressional races in New Mexico from OpenSecrets 2010 New Mexico General Election graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com

House – New Mexico from the Cook Political Report