1995 Ontario general election

General elections were held on June 8, 1995, to elect members of the 36th Legislative Assembly of the province of Ontario, Canada. The writs for the election were drawn up on April 28, 1995.

The governing New Democratic Party, led by Premier Bob Rae, was defeated by voters, who were angry with the actions of the Rae government, such as its unpopular hiring quotas and the Social Contract legislation in 1993. These policies caused the NDP to lose much of its base in organized labour, further reducing support for the party. At the 1993 federal election, the NDP tumbled to less than seven per cent support, and lost all 11 of its federal seats in Ontario. By the time the writs were drawn up for the 1995 provincial election, it was obvious that the NDP would not be reelected.

Riding name change Acts were passed in 1991 and 1993, providing for the following name changes to ridings:

Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry to S-D-G & East Grenville. Grey to Grey—Owen Sound. York North to York—Mackenzie.

Campaign The Liberal Party under Lyn McLeod had been leading in the polls for most of the period from 1992 to 1995, and were generally favoured to benefit from the swing in support away from the NDP. However, the party hurt its credibility through a series of high-profile policy reversals in the period leading up to the election. The most notable of these occurred when McLeod withdrew Liberal support from the Equality Rights Statute Amendment Act (Bill 167) introduced by the NDP government in 1994, which would have provided same-sex couples with rights and obligations mostly equal to those of opposite-sex common law couples and introduced a form of civil unions. Her decision was seen as cynical and opportunistic in light of the Liberals' earlier rural by-election loss in the socially conservative riding of Victoria—Haliburton. This gave the McLeod Liberals a reputation for "flip-flopping" and inconsistency while offending its socially progressive supporters.

The Progressive Conservative Party, led by Mike Harris, found success with its Common Sense Revolution campaign to cut personal income taxes, social assistance (welfare) rates, and government spending dramatically. Roughly half of his party's seats came from the more affluent regions of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), especially the suburban belt surrounding Metro Toronto, often called the '905' for its telephone area code.

In addition, by presenting himself as a populist, representing "ordinary Ontarians" over "special interests", Harris was able to build Tory support among working-class voters. Although there were regional variations, many working-class voters shifted directly from the NDP to the Tories during the election, enabling the latter to win formerly NDP ridings such as Cambridge and Oshawa.

The televised party leaders' debate is often regarded as the turning point of the campaign. During the event, McLeod further alienated many voters with an overly aggressive performance. Harris used his time to speak directly to the camera to convey his party's Common Sense Revolution platform, virtually ignoring all questions asked of him by Rae and McLeod and avoiding getting caught up in their debate. Since Liberal support was regarded by many political insiders as soft and unsteady, many voters who were previously leaning to the Liberals shifted to the Progressive Conservatives after the debate.

Opinion polls + Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level Polling firmLast day of survey Source PCO OLP ONDP Other SampleElection 1995June 8, 199544.831.120.63.5GallupJune 4, 1995423520Angus ReidMay 1995443420Angus ReidMay 1995413621 May 24, 19953733~25CompasMay 1995364021EnvironicsMay 1995265217Election called (April 28, 1995)

During the 35th Parliament of Ontario + Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level Polling firmLast day of survey Source PCO OLP ONDP Other SampleAngus ReidApril 1995284621Comquest ResearchMarch 1995303436Angus ReidJanuary 19952745209 EnvironicsJune 25, 1992284225 EnvironicsMarch 1992284323EnvironicsJune 1991233634 EnvironicsDecember 30, 1990152458 EnvironicsOctober 1990182751 Election 1990September 6, 199023.532.437.66.5

Results Summary

The Progressive Conservatives won a majority while the Liberals finished with less support than they had in the 1990 election. The NDP, despite improving their standing in some Northern Ontario ridings, were heavily defeated, falling to 17 seats and third party status. The New Democrats would remain the third party until 2018 when they returned to Official Opposition status. McLeod and Rae resigned their party leadership posts not long after the campaign. It was also the worst result for an incumbent Ontario governing party up to that time and would remain so until 2018 when the NDP finally surpassed the then-governing Liberals.

One independent candidate was elected: Peter North in the riding of Elgin. North had been elected in 1990 as a New Democrat, but left the NDP and declared his intention to run as a Progressive Conservative. The PC Party did not accept him as a candidate, however.

At least five unregistered parties fielded candidates in this election, appearing on the ballot as independents:

The Reform Association of Ontario ran fifteen candidates. Their leader was Kimble Ainslie. An article of The Globe and Mail for August 19, 1995 indicates that the party won 6,400 votes. John Steele campaigned as a candidate of the Communist League. The Ontario Renewal Party ran a number of candidates under the leadership of Diane Johnston. This was the Marxist–Leninist party under a different name. Amani Oakley and Joe Flexer ran as "Independent Labour" candidates in Toronto with the support of dissident or former members of the Ontario New Democratic Party and with the support of OPSEU in the case of Oakley and the Canadian Auto Workers in the case of Flexer . John Turmel's Abolitionist Party ran at least two candidates.

Overall

|style="text-align:left;"|Mike Harris | 130 || 20 || 82 || 62 || 1,870,110 || 925,546 || 44.97% || 21.46

|style="text-align:left;"|Lyn McLeod | 130 || 36 || 30 || 6 || 1,291,326 || 10,808 || 31.05% || 1.35

|style="text-align:left;"|Bob Rae | 130 || 74 || 17 || 57 || 854,163 || 655,343 || 20.54% || 17.03

| || 60 || – || 1 || 1 || 33,077 || 19,770 || 0.80% || 0.46

|style="text-align:left;"|Donald Pennell | 55 || – || – || – || 61,657 || 49,174 || 1.48% || 1.28

|style="text-align:left;"|Ron Parker | 68 || – || – || – || 18,326 || 18,326 || 0.44% ||New

|style="text-align:left;"|Frank de Jong | 37 || – || – || – || 14,108 || 15,989 || 0.34% || 0.41

|style="text-align:left;"|John Shadbolt | 18 || – || – || – || 6,085 ||18,528 || 0.15% || 0.47

|style="text-align:left;"|Jack Plant | 12 || – || – || – || 4,532 || 1,483 || 0.11% || 0.04

|style="text-align:left;"| | 6 || – || – || – || 3,971 || 71,902 || 0.10% || 1.79

|style="text-align:left;"|Darrell Rankin | 5 || – || – || – || 1,015 || 124 || 0.02% || – |- ! colspan="3" style="text-align:left;" | Total |651||130 ! " colspan="2"|130 ! " colspan="2"|4,158,370 ! " colspan="2"| 100.00% |- | colspan="7" style="text-align:left;" | Rejected ballots | 42,152 | 10,423 | colspan="2"| |- | colspan="7" style="text-align:left;" | Voter turnout | 4,200,522 | 129,868 | 63.00 | 1.45 |- | colspan="7" style="text-align:left;" | Registered electors | 6,667,798 | 351,849 | colspan="2"|

Vote and seat summaries

+ Seats and popular vote by party Party Seats Votes Change (pp)

Synopsis of results

1995 Ontario general election

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