Opinion polling (popularly known as surveys in the Philippines) for the 2010 Philippine presidential election is managed by two major polling firms: Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, and several minor polling firms. The polling firms conducted surveys both prior and after the deadline for filing of certificates of candidacies on December 1, 2009.

Post-filing Note: Tables only include confirmed candidates by the COMELEC. The following are results of surveys taken after the last day of filing of certificates of candidacies by the candidates (December 1).

Scores in bold indicate first place, scores in italics are within the margin of error of first place.

Presidential election Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoEAcostaAquinoDe los ReyesEstradaGordonMadrigalPerlasTeodoroVillanuevaVillar Others/Undecided 2010Election resultsMay 9— 42.080.1226.251.390.130.1511.333.1215.42 SWS Exit poll 52,573 ±1% — 43.34 0.15 26.38 1.40 0.23 0.13 10.25 3.40 14.73 — SWS May 2–3 2,400 ±2% 0 42 0.3 20 2 0.2 0.1 9 3 19 6 StratPOLLS Apr. 27–May 2 1,500 — — 45.2 0.2 22.2 1.5 0.2 0.6 10.1 3 15.1 — The Center Apr. 26–May 2 2,400 ±2.8% — 29 — 18 — — — 20 — 25 — Manila Standard Today Apr. 25–27 2,500 ±2% — 38 0.1 22 2 0.4 0.2 9 3 20 6 Pulse Asia Apr. 23–25 1,800 ±2% — 39 0.2 20 2 0.1 0.3 7 3 20 9 Manila Standard Today Apr. 18–20 2,500 ±2% — 38 — 19 1 — — 9 2 23 6 SWS Apr. 16–19 2,400 ±2% 0 38 0.2 17 2 0.3 0.2 9 2 26 6 Pulse Asia Mar. 21–28 3,000 ±2% 0.08 37 0.2 18 2 0.1 0.3 7 2 25 9 SWS Mar. 19–22 2,100 ±2.2% — 37 0.3 19 3 0.04 0.1 6 2 28 4.56 The Center Mar. 3–10 2,400 ±2.8% — 26 0.5 17 9 0 0 14 2 28 — SWS Feb. 24–28 2,100 ±2.2% 0.4 36 0.1 15 2 0.1 0.2 6 3 34 4 Pulse Asia Feb. 21–25 1,800 ±2% 0.04 36 0 18 1 0.3 0.2 7 2 29 6 The Center Feb. 1–8 1,800 ±2.8% — 27 — 17 8 — — 14 3 27 — TNS Jan. 28–Feb. 3 3,000 ±—% — 41.54 — 11.66 1.7 0.22 — 5.21 2 30.63 — Pulse Asia Jan. 22–26 1,800 ±2% 0.2 37 0.3 12 1 0.5 0.05 5 2 35 6 SWS Jan. 21–24 2,100 ±2% 0.3 42 0.2 13 2 0.4 0.04 4 2 35 2 StratPOLLS Jan. 16–22 2,400 ±2.2% — 36 0.25 15 5 1 — 11 4 26 —2009 SWSNoynoy still leads, but Villar closing in. 1.10.2010. Philippine Star. retrieved on 01.10.2010. Dec. 27–28 2,100 ±2.2% — 44 0.4 15 0.5 0.4 — 5 1 33 1 Pulse Asia Dec. 8–10 1,800 ±2% — 45 — 19 1 — — 5 1 23 51% picked "others" while 4% picked none/refused/undecided. SWS Dec. 5–10 2,100 ±2.2% — 46.2 0.1 16.0 1.1 0.2 0.03 4.6 1.1 27.0 3.7 The Center Dec. 2–6 1,200 ±2.8% — 31 0.25 19 5 0.25 — 10 3 24 7.5

Vice presidential election

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoE Binay Chipeco Fernando Legarda Manzano Roxas Sonza Yasay Others Undecided 2010Election resultsMay 9N/A 41.650.152.8912.212.3039.580.181.04 N/A SWS Exit poll 52,573 ±1% 42.52 0.43 2.92 11.51 1.81 39.17 0.20 1.43 — SWS May 2–32,400 ±2% 37.2 0.2 4 12 3 37 0.3 1 6 StratPOLLS Apr. 27–May 2 1,500 — 37.8 0.2 2.7 13.1 3.5 40.1 0.2 1.2 — The Center Apr. 26–May 2 2,400 ±2.8% 25.0 — — 29.0 — 34.0 — — — Manila Standard Today Apr. 25–27 2,500 ±2% 28 — 2 20 3 38 — — 9 Pulse Asia Apr. 23–25 1,800 ±2% 28 0.05 3 20 3 37 0.03 1 9 Manila Standard Today"> Apr. 18–20 2,500 ±2% 22 — 3 23 2 41 — — 9 SWS"> Apr. 16–19 2,400 ±2% 25 0.3 3 24 2 39 0.4 1 5 Pulse Asia Mar. 21–28 3,000 ±2% 19 0.1 3 23 2 43 0.5 1 9 SWS Mar. 19–22 2,100 ±2.2% 21 0.4 3 25 3 42 0.3 1 5 SWS Feb. 24–28 2,100 ±2.2% 17 0.4 3 28 2 45 1 0.4 — 3 Pulse Asia Feb. 21–25 1,800 ±2% 15 0.1 4 27 2 43 1 1 7 Pulse Asia Jan. 22–26 1,800 ±2% 13 0.07 2 28 2 47 0.2 1 7 SWS Jan. 21–24 2,100 ±2% 16 0.2 2 28 2 49 0.3 0.4 2 StratPOLLS Jan. 16–22 2,400 ±2.2% 11 2 7 25 5 47 1 1 —2009 SWS Dec. 27–28 2,100 ±2.2% 14.0 0.04 3.0 31.0 2.0 47.0 0.3 0.2 2.4 Pulse Asia Dec. 8–10 1,800 ±2% 14 — 2 37 2 39 — — 1 4 SWS Dec. 5–10 2,100 ±2.2% 10.2 0.0 1.8 32.0 2.6 43.3 0.3 0.1 9.7 The Center Dec. 2–6 1,200 ±2.8% 16.0 — 8.0 28.0 3.0 32.0 0.25 0.37 — —

Notes:

Pre-filing The following are survey results before the deadline of filing of certificates of candidacy.

Note: Figures assigned with "–" refers that the person either wasn't included among the choices or failed to crack the top positions in the poll.

Pulse Asia Pulse Asia: Of the people on this list, whom would you vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections were held today and they were presidential candidates? +Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoEDe CastroJo. EstradaLegardaEscuderoRoxasLacsonVillarFernandoBinayVillanuevaGordonTeodoroPunoOthersNo answer / refused to answer / undecided Pulse AsiaMay 4–17, 2009±3% 18 157 17 134 140.340.41114Pulse AsiaOct 14–27, 2008±3% 18 17 13 1567 17111–––––Pulse Asiaabs-cbnnews.com, Erap back in public mind for 2010 pollsJuly 1–14, 2008±3% 22 161414851212–––0.2––Pulse AsiaDe Castro is top bet for 2010 polls, Inquirer.netFeb 2–Mar 8, 2008±3% 21.5– 17.51310.59.99.31.41.2–0.70.3–6.8 Notes: Sample: 1,200, with 300 each for Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Margin of error: ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages

Social Weather Stations Social Weather Stations: Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is only up to the year 2010, and there will be an election for President in May 2010. Who in your opinion are the good leaders who should succeed President Arroyo as President? Person Sep '07Social Weather Stations Dec '07 Mar '08 Jun '08 Nov '08 Dec '08Survey: De Castro top choice for 2010 , Philippine Daily Inquirer, 01/13/2009. Mar '09Noli, Villar, Loren, Chiz top SWS survey on Arroyo successor, GMANews.tvJun '09Sep '09 Aquino, Benigno III -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 60% Cayetano, Alan Peter 1% 3% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Binay, Jejomar -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% 4% 12% De Castro, Noli 25% 30% 35% 31% 29% 31% 27% 19% 8% Estrada, Joseph 5% 9% 14% 11% 13% 11% 13% 25% 18% Escudero, Francis 13% 15% 19% 14% 16% 19% 23% 20% 15% Estrada, Jinggoy 1% 2% -- -- 1% -- 1% -- -- Fernando, Bayani 5% 9% 14% 11% 13% 11% 13% -- 1% Gordon, Richard -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% 4% 9% Lacson, Panfilo 18% 13% 12% 16% 17% 14% 14% 7% 2% Legarda, Loren 44% 23% 30% 26% 26% 28% 25% 15% 5% Pangilinan, Francis 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% -- -- Ramon Revilla -- -- -- -- -- -- 1% -- -- Roxas, Mar 9% 20% 16% 13% 13% 10% 15% 20% 12% Santiago, Miriam 3% 4% -- -- 1% 1% 4% 13% 17% Trillanes, Antonio IV 4% 3% -- -- 1% 1% -- -- -- Villar, Manny 18% 27% 17% 25% 28% 27% 26% 33% 37% Don't know 12% 12% 11% 15% 9% 7% 13% 7% 6% Not sure/None 6% 5% 5% 8% 9% 12% 7% 18% 4%Notes:SWS: De Castro, 3 others are top 2010 bets, ABS-CBNNews.com Participants were allowed to choose up to three persons, hence the numbers would exceed 100%. Responses below 2% were excluded. Sample: 1,200, with 300 each for Metro Manila, rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Margin of error: ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentagessws.org, Table 1

Controversy With the various surveys showing a two-horse race between Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar, other candidates had expressed doubts on the accuracy of the surveys. Presidential candidate Richard Gordon filed a temporary restraining order before the Quezon City Regional Trial Court, to stop Pulse Asia and SWS from releasing results of pre-election surveys. Gordon said that the research groups used false methodologies and that the 2 survey companies are "stealing the people's minds" and preventing voters from carefully choosing their preferred candidates, particularly those running for president."

References