1988 Atlantic hurricane season

The 1988 Atlantic hurricane season was a near average season that proved costly and deadly, with 15 tropical cyclones directly affecting land. The season officially began on June 1, 1988, and lasted until November 30, 1988, although activity began on May 30 when a tropical depression developed in the Caribbean. The June through November dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first cyclone to attain tropical storm status was Alberto on August 8, nearly a month later than usual. The final storm of the year, Tropical Storm Keith, became extratropical on November 24. The season produced 19 tropical depressions of which 12 attained tropical storm status. One tropical storm was operationally classified as a tropical depression but was reclassified in post-analysis. Five tropical cyclones reached hurricane status of which three became major hurricanes reaching Category 3 on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Until the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, it was the latest season to have multiple Atlantic-Pacific crossover storms.

There were two notable cyclones of the season, the first one being Hurricane Gilbert, which at the time was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record. The hurricane tracked through the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico and caused devastation in Mexico and many island nations, particularly Jamaica. Its passage caused $2.98 billion in damage (1988 USD) and more than 300 deaths, mostly in Mexico. The second one was Hurricane Joan, which struck Nicaragua as a Category 4 hurricane and caused about US$1.87 billion in damage and more than 200 deaths. The hurricane crossed into the eastern Pacific Ocean and was reclassified as Tropical Storm Miriam. Hurricane Debby also successfully crossed over, becoming Tropical Depression Seventeen-E, making the 1988 season the first on record in which more than one tropical cyclone has crossed between the Atlantic and Pacific basins intact.

Seasonal forecasts +Predictions of tropical activity in the 1988 seasonSourceDateNamedstormsHurricanesMajorhurricanesWRCEarly 198885UnknownCSUJune117UnknownCSUAugust117UnknownRecord high activity30157 (Tie)Record low activity10 (tie)0Actual activity 12 5 3

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts such as Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University. A normal season as defined by NOAA has six to fourteen named storms of which four to eight reach hurricane strength and one to three become major hurricanes. The June 1988 forecast was that eleven storms would form and that seven would reach hurricane status. The forecast did not specify how many hurricanes would reach major hurricane status. In August, CSU opted to not alter their forecast, continuing to call for eleven named storms and seven hurricanes. Additionally, the Weather Research Center (WRC) issued a prediction in early 1988, forecasting eight named storms and five hurricanes.

Seasonal summary

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, but activity in 1988 began two days earlier with the formation of Tropical Depression One on May 30. It was an above average season in which 19 tropical depressions formed. Twelve depressions attained tropical storm status, and five of these attained hurricane status, of which three reached major hurricane status. Four hurricanes and three tropical storms made landfall during the season and caused 550 deaths and $4.86 billion in damage. The last storm of the season, Tropical Storm Keith, dissipated on November 24, only 6 days before the official end of the season on November 30.

The activity in the first two months of the season was limited because of strong wind shear from an upper tropospheric flow. Although vigorous tropical waves moved off the coast of Africa, most of them quickly diminished in intensity as they crossed the tropical Atlantic Ocean. As a result, no tropical depressions formed in June or July. Decreased wind shear in August allowed tropical waves to develop into tropical cyclones. The official storm track forecast errors were lower than the average for the previous 10 years. The forecasts were the most accurate in more than 18 years and were also more accurate than in each subsequent season until 1996.

The season's activity was reflected with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 103, which is classified as "near normal". ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. It is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding , which is tropical storm strength.

Systems

Tropical Depression One

By late on May 29, scattered showers and thunderstorms existed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low-pressure area formed on the following day, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noting some very deep and concentrated convection. Around 18:00 UTC on May 30, Tropical Depression One developed in the western Caribbean Sea, a day before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The depression moved northeastward along the axis of a northeast-southwest oriented trough, passing just northwest of Isla de la Juventud before striking the Cuban mainland south of Havana. As it crossed the country, its strongest rainfall was east of the center, and the depression failed to intensify beyond winds of 30 mph (45 km/h). After a hurricane hunters flight could not detect a circulation, the depression degenerated into an open trough east of Florida on June 2. The final discussion by the NHC noted the presence of several weak eddies, but that none were close enough to the remaining deep convection to justify the system continuing to be classified as a tropical cyclone.

While crossing Cuba, the depression dropped heavy rainfall that led to 37 deaths. Rainfall peaked at in Cienfuegos Province, of which fell in one day. The heavy rainfall caused flooding in Camagüey that damaged about 5,700 houses and destroyed 200. The flooding also damaged 15 schools and hospitals, as well as several crop buildings. The floods left widespread areas without electricity or communications. The floods destroyed six bridges, damaged 55 rail lines, and left 131 roads unpassable, which severely disrupted the country's transportation infrastructure. Flooding prompted officials to use rescue crews, helicopters, and amphibious vehicles to evacuate 65,000 residents in low-lying areas to higher grounds. A tornado in the city of Camagüey destroyed five Soviet planes and multiple buildings. The depression also killed thousands of livestock. The Red Cross sent medical units, tents, and blankets by plane. Overall about 90,000 people were affected.

Tropical Storm Alberto

The season's first named storm originated on August 4 within a weak trough of low pressure that formed off the coast of South Carolina. The next day a low level circulation was detected by satellite, indicating that a tropical depression was forming. By August 6 the storm was designated the second tropical depression of the season. An approaching weak frontal trough pushed the depression northeastward and enhanced its upper-level outflow. On August 7 the system was designated Tropical Storm Alberto at 41.5°N, while located just south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, becoming the northernmost system to intensify into a tropical storm on record. The storm accelerated northeastward at and struck western Nova Scotia that evening with little impact. On August 8 Alberto became extratropical over the cold waters of the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Shortly thereafter it dissipated just north of Newfoundland.

The storm produced peak wind gusts of at Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. Rainfall reached in Saint John, New Brunswick, most of which fell in a short amount of time. The rainfall caused localized flooding, which briefly closed some streets. The extratropical remnants of Alberto also produced light rain and some clouds along western Newfoundland.

Tropical Storm Beryl

The third tropical depression of the season formed on August 7 from a surface low over southeastern Louisiana. The slow moving system organized as it drifted toward the mouth of the Mississippi River. It soon had enough convective organization for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue an initial advisory on Tropical Depression Three. By August 8 surface winds increased enough to issue tropical storm warnings for Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Over the open Gulf, Beryl produced sustained winds of minimal tropical storm force and tropical storm force gusts over coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Excessive rain fell along the central Gulf Coast, including local amounts of at Dauphin Island, Alabama.

Maintaining a well-structured outflow, Beryl's circulation on August 9 moved over warm water, where conditions were favorable for further intensification. However, a front approached from the northwest and reversed the storm's course into southeastern Louisiana. The next morning Beryl had weakened to a tropical depression as it moved over the Bayou Teche. Heavy downpours from system's remnants brought more than of rain to parts of eastern Texas. Overall damage from the storm was light, and only one known death was attributed to the storm.

Tropical Depression Four

On August 12 a westward-moving tropical wave developed into Tropical Depression Four near the southern Bahamas. The depression tracked north-northwest along Florida's coast and made landfall near Jacksonville, Florida, the next day. The system spawned gusty winds and thunderstorms along the coasts of Florida and Georgia but caused little damage. The storm moved over south Georgia and the central Gulf Coast while dropping up to of rain on the Southeast. According to the National Weather Service, winds in some squalls to the north and east of the center reached up to . The system finally dissipated as it reemerged over water near the mouth of the Mississippi.

Early predictions from hurricane forecasters said that the depression would strengthen into the season's third tropical storm. Because of unfavorable upper-level conditions and interaction with Bahama islands, the system lost its well defined center as it moved towards Florida's east coast.

Tropical Depression Five

A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic developed into the fifth tropical depression on August 20. The storm drifted north-northwest of the Cape Verde islands for the next three days with little change in strength. Forecasters were concerned because the depression formed in the breeding ground where other powerful East Coast hurricanes have started. Though the storm was still very weak, they initially predicted it would strengthen.

By August 24 the depression's forward speed had increased to as its movement turned west. Cool ocean temperatures weakened the system and diminished its prospects for restrengthening, and on August 26, Tropical Depression Five degenerated into a tropical wave. The remnants redeveloped on August 30 about southeast of North Carolina, and the Washington office of the National Weather Service continued to track the system as a gale center until it merged with a front off the East Coast on September 1.

Tropical Depression Six