The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978 when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).
As of January 2022, the predictor had been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate. Without retrospective predictions, i.e. after its invention in 1978, it had been correct in 29 out of 43 games, a success rate of 67%.
Data Year Team League Conference Market Correct 2000 Rams NFL NFC 2001 Ravens exp AFC 2002 Patriots AFL AFC 2003 Buccaneers exp NFC 2004 Patriots AFL AFC 2005 Patriots AFL AFC 2006 Steelers NFL AFC 2007 Colts NFL AFC 2008 Giants NFL NFC 2009 Steelers NFL AFC 2010 Saints NFL NFC 2011 Packers NFL NFC 2012 Giants NFL NFC 2013 Ravens exp AFC 2014 Seahawks exp NFC 2015 Patriots AFL AFC 2016 Broncos AFL AFC 2017 Patriots AFL AFC 2018 Eagles NFL NFC 2019 Patriots AFL AFC 2020 Chiefs AFL AFC 2021 Buccaneers exp NFC 2022 Rams NFL NFC 2023 Chiefs AFL AFC 2024 Chiefs AFL AFC 2025 Eagles NFL NFC
Statistical significance
The Super Bowl Indicator is generally treated as an example of a spurious correlation rather than a reliable forecasting method. Although the indicator appeared to have a high historical success rate in its early years, later analysis has found that its predictive performance weakened substantially after it became widely known.
The indicator has no generally accepted economic mechanism connecting the outcome of a football game with stock-market returns. It is therefore usually cited as a reminder that historical correlations can occur by chance and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions.
See also January barometer Calendar effect
References