Climate change has received significant scientific, public and political attention in Sweden. In 1896, Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius was the first scientist to quantify global heating. Sweden has a high energy consumption per capita, but reducing the dependency on fossil energy has been on the agenda of cabinets of the Governments of Sweden since the 1970s oil crises. In 2014 and 2016, Sweden was ranked #1 in the Global Green Economy Index (GGEI), because the Swedish economy produces relatively low emissions. Sweden has had one of the highest usages of biofuel in Europe and aims at prohibiting new sales of fossil-cars, including hybrid cars, by 2035, and for an energy supply system with zero net atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions by 2045.
Since the end of the 19th century, the average annual temperature has risen by almost two degrees Celsius, compared to global warming of just over one degree. Sweden's winter temperature is predicted to further increase by as much as 7 °C (13 °F) by 2100 in a worst-case scenario. This will increase the percentage of precipitation that comes from rain instead of snow. The Baltic Sea could see a surface water temperature increase of up to 4 °C (7 °F). This will decrease sea ice cover by the end of the century.
The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) produces guidelines and resources to help citizens adapt to climate change. The MSB keeps flood and landslide maps online, and guidelines for decision-making in case of disasters.
Governmental efforts include policy instruments and legislation to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Policy instruments include taxing carbon dioxide emissions, issuing renewable energy certificates, subsidizing renewable energy initiatives, and making investments in R&D.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Regarding greenhouse gas emission as a whole, the country has 4 targets: from the level of 1990, emissions should be reduced by 40% by the year 2020, by 63% by the year 2030, achieve net zero emissions by 2045, and reach negative emissions after this year.
In 2020, 2 years before it was planned to be done, Sweden closed its last coal fired power station and became coal free, the third country in Europe after Belgium and Austria. As of 2018, 54% of energy came from renewable sources. The country has a target to achieve 100% electricity from renewables by 2040.
In 2019 Sweden placed number four in the Climate Change Performance Index by Germanwatch with 76.28 points out of 100. No country was granted position one to three in the list as "No country is doing enough to prevent dangerous climate change.” Sweden ranked first in both the 2014 and 2016 editions of the Global Green Economy Index (GGEI) where Sweden performs well overall and within the topic of climate change performance where it is one of the top developed countries due to the relatively low emissions intensity of the Swedish economy.
The following table shows the yearly total emission of greenhouse gas in Sweden in million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2). Values for EU28 and world to compare trends.
Year Sweden (Mt CO2) EU28 (Mt CO2) World (Mt CO2) 1970 119 5 507 24 305 1980 104 6 214 29 989 1990 81 5 744 32 772 2000 81 5 297 35 962 2010 79 4 957 45 934 2015 67 4 500 49 113
The following table shows the yearly emission of greenhouse gas in Sweden in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita (t CO2/capita).
Year Sweden (t CO2/capita) EU28 (t CO2/capita) World (t CO2/capita) 1970 14.7 12.5 6.6 1980 12.5 13.4 6.7 1990 9.5 12.0 6.2 2000 9.1 10.9 5.9 2010 8.4 9.8 6.6 2015 6.9 8.9 6.7
For the total carbon dioxide emissions in 2009, without other Greenhouse gases or land use, at 50.56 million tonnes Sweden ranked in place 60 out of 216 countries, below Libya 55.0 million tonnes, Serbia 52.3 million tonnes and Finland 52.15 million tonnes. For the per capita carbon dioxide emissions in 2009, at 5.58 tonnes per capita (t/capita), Sweden ranked shared place 82 out of 216 countries having the same emissions as Ukraine. This was only slightly below the carbon dioxide emissions per capita in China 5.83 t/capita.World carbon dioxide emissions data by country: China speeds ahead of the rest Guardian 31 January 2011
In 2000, Sweden ranked in place 76 out of 185 countries for the per capita greenhouse gas emissions when taking any land use changes into account. Without considering land use changes the country ranked at fifty eighth.
Climate gas emission in 2018 of public workers in Sweden was 410,000 tonnes (196,000 workers, ca 2 tonnes pro person). Naturvardsverket encourage to reduce the annual emissions in public sector.Koldioxidutsläpp från myndigheters tjänsteresor och transporter De sammanlagda utsläppen av koldioxid från Sveriges myndigheters tjänsteresor och transporter ökar igen och utsläpp från maskiner och övriga fordon står för den största ökningen. Även resorna med flyg har ökat Naturvardsverket 10.6.2019 In 2019 nine first months Karolinska institutet have reduced 5% all air travels and 18% Swedish air travels compared to year 2018. KI:s flygresor stor miljöbov – ändrade reseregler ska få ner utsläppen SVT 23.10.2019
Road emissions Share of biofuel increased from 22% to 23% in 2019. Road emissions declined by 2% from 2018 to 2019. To reach transport climate target by 2030 road traffic climate emissions must decline 8% a year (Sven Hunhammar, director in Trafikverket).
Aviation emissions According to Swedavia there was 40 million aviation travels in Sweden in 2019. Number decreased 9% in domestic flights and decreased 2% in international flights compared to 2018.Flygresandet till och från Sveriges större flygplatser minskade med fyra procent under fjolåret jämfört med rekordåret 2018. Flygresandet till och från Sveriges större flygplatser minskade med fyra procent under fjolåret jämfört med rekordåret 2018. DI 10 januari 2020 + SVT Swedish population in August 2019 was ca 10.3 million. This makes approximately in average 3.88 air travels per each citizen in Sweden in 2019.
Swedish aircraft greenhouse gas emissions equaled those of Swedish personal car traffic in 2017 according to the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and a Chalmers University study published 31 May 2019.Naturvårdsverkets nya beräkning: Flyget lika stor klimatbov som personbilar 31 maj 2019 Total emissions in 2017 was one tonne carbon dioxide equivalent per Swedish person. This is five times the global average.
According to Swedish TV news, the Swedish government supports taxing aviation equal to private car traffic in 2019. Swedish TV news calculated that tax will make travel to Thailand 8,900 Swedish krona more expensive.8 900 kronor i skatt på Thailandsresa Swedish TV News, 2 June 2019
Chalmers University report 2019 Global civil aviation accounts for 4–5% of total greenhouse gas emissions and these emissions are increasing. Greenhouse gas emissions from air travel are substantial for high-income countries like Sweden. Chalmers University Gothenburg developed methodology to calculate Swedish aviation emissions.Measuring greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel of a country’s residents methodological development and application for Sweden Jörgen Larsson, Anneli Kamba, Jonas Nässéna and Jonas Åkermanb, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 72: 137-144Climate footprint from Swedish residents’ air travel Anneli Kamb and Jörgen Larsson Chalmers Göteborg, February 2019
The climate impact of aviation comes from CO2 emissions, emissions of nitrogen oxides above 8000 meters, and the warm aircraft emissions forming ice crystals. Total emissions were estimated by calculating the CO2 emissions by 1.9 for international flights, and by 1.4 for domestic flights. Calculation excluded emissions from the production of fuel which is 10-20% in the EU.
The Swedish population's air travel emission based on country of residence was 10 million tonnes CO2eq, in business 20% and in private travel 80%. The amount 10 million tonnes CO2eq can be compared with the bunker fuels metric which showed a total of . Emissions were ca 1.1 tonnes CO2 equivalents per Swedish capita in 2017 compared to global average 0.2 tonnes per capita.
The Swedish aviation emissions are in total approximately equal to the emissions from the Swedish passenger vehicle traffic. Calculation exclude contribution of the tourists aviation visiting Sweden. Aviation emission was per passenger kilometre compared to per kilometre and person in a car with three passengers.
Statistics on "large emitters in Sweden" Listed below, an overview of large emitters of CO2 equivalents registered in Sweden in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In 2018, the 584 entities registered in Sweden in EU ETS, emitting at least one tonne of CO2e, combined had verified emissions of 22,624,282 tonnes of CO2e. The column "Part of SE sum in EU ETS" is based on this sum, not the total emissions in Sweden. +Large emitters in Sweden.EmitterVerified emissions (tonnes of CO2e)Registered activityYearPart of SE sum in EU ETSOwnership commentScandinavian Airlines Airline201811% In early 2018 Danish state owned 14%, Swedish state 15%, Norwegian state 10%. Parts of emissions likely related to activities outside Sweden.Luleå KVV (CHP) Combustion of fuels20189% Owned to equal share by SSAB and Luleå Municipality.Slitefabriken Production of cement clinker20188% Owned by HeidelbergCement, through Cementa ABPreemraff Lysekil Refining of mineral oil20187% Owned by PreemSSAB Oxelösund Production of pig iron or steel20186% Owned by SSAB. Swedish state owned 2.25% in 2016.SSAB Luleå Production of pig iron or steel20185% Owned by SSAB. Swedish state owned 2.25% in 2016.Krackeranläggningen, Borealis Combustion of fuels20183% Owned by BorealisSt1 Refinery AB Refining of mineral oil20182.4% Owned by St1Preemraff Göteborg Refining of mineral oil20182.4% Owned by PreemVärtan, Stockholm Exergi Combustion of fuels20182.2% Owned to equal share by Stockholm Municipality and Fortum, a Finnish state-owned company.LKAB Kiruna Metal ore roasting or sintering20181.9% Swedish state owned 100% in 2018.
Impacts on the natural environment By the end of the century, Sweden's climate will be different from today's. There are uncertainties regarding the exact scope of the change, one uncertainty being the world's political trajectory regarding climate policy.
Temperature and weather changes
By the 2080s average temperatures are set to rise by 3–5 °C. The climate in the Mälardalen region will be similar to that of northern France. Winter temperatures are likely to see a greater increase than spring, summer and autumn temperatures. By the end of the century winters could be up to 7 °C warmer than today on average. The Norrland coast will probably be the region that sees the highest increases in temperature. In May 2018 mean temperature was more than in average +5 °C in most Sweden and +2.5 °C in most Europe. In July 2018 mean temperature was more than +3–4 °C on average in most of Sweden.Extremvärme allt vanligare i världen Swedish TV News 18 July 2018 In July 2018 Italy, Norway, Poland and France sent help to fight the dozens of forest fires in Sweden.Flera skogsbränder i landet Swedish TV News 18 July 2018
Precipitation Sweden's future climate is expected to be wetter, with an increase in intense rain events. Most of the increase in precipitation will be during winter and a larger proportion will fall as rain. Summers will be drier and see a reduction in heavy rain events, particularly in the southern parts of Sweden.
Wind Climate models differ on whether Sweden's climate will get windier or not. Some models predict an increase in average wind speed, whilst others predict a decrease. The predictions of one climate model able to resolve wind gusts show an increase in the speed of wind gusts in the future.
Baltic sea