Since about 2001 the term nuclear renaissance has been used to refer to a possible nuclear power industry revival, driven by rising fossil fuel prices and new concerns about meeting greenhouse gas emission limits.
The term emerged in a context brought about by a worldwide slowdown in the rollout of new nuclear projects. The quantity of nuclear electricity generated worldwide had previously had a marked increase in the period from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s. This was brought about by massive nuclear programs in countries such as the US and France (see graph). With spiralling costs and a decline in the public acceptability of nuclear projects brought about in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986, the speed of the rollout dwindled rapidly, leading to growing questions about the future of the industry.
In the 2000s, the principal vehicle of industry growth was thought to be the project then known as the European Pressurised Reactor (EPR), led jointly by the French and German governments. Initial implementation of the project was poor, with costly delays and overruns in France, Finland and China.
In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear accident renewed fears about nuclear safety worldwide. Several countries, including Germany, announced a complete withdrawal from nuclear electricity generation. By 2012, the World Nuclear Association reported that nuclear electricity generation was at its lowest level since 1999.
In the 2010s, industry growth was led by advances in China, as seen on the graph below. In 2015, for instance, 10 nuclear reactors were connected to the grid, the highest number recorded since 1990. Expanding Asian nuclear programs were balanced by retirements of aging plants and nuclear reactor phase-outs with 7 reactors permanently decommissioned in 2015. By that time, 67 new nuclear reactors were under construction, including four EPR units.
In the same period, the nuclear industry in Europe and the US was beset with industrial difficulties. In 2015, French nuclear giant Areva, the then-world leader in reactor construction, collapsed, forcing a government-sponsored takeover by utility provider EDF. The restructuring caused further delays in EPR rollout. In 2017, the American producer of the AP1000 reactor Westinghouse Electric Company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Together with delays and cost overruns, the bankruptcy caused cancellation of the two AP1000 reactors under construction at the Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Generating Station.
Despite these concerns, growing apprehension over the energy transition has led in recent years to a reappraisal of the role of nuclear energy as a reliable and carbon-free source of electricity. In particular, the 2022 global energy crisis brought renewed interest in nuclear energy due to low carbon emissions, less need for fuel import and a stable power supply compared to wind and solar. Countries began reversing or delaying nuclear phase-outs and greater attention being given to newer technologies such as Small Modular Reactors alongside increased incentives, such as the European Union listing nuclear energy as green energy.
History By the year 2009, annual generation of nuclear power had been on a slight downward trend since 2007, decreasing 1.8% in 2009 to 2558 TWh with nuclear power meeting 13–14% of the world's electricity demand.Nuclear decline set to continue, says report Nuclear Engineering International, 27 August 2009. A major factor in the decrease has been the prolonged repair of seven large reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant in Japan following the Niigata-Chuetsu-Oki earthquake.World Nuclear Association. Another drop in nuclear generation World Nuclear News, 05 May 2010.
In the same year's World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency stated that: A nuclear renaissance is possible but cannot occur overnight. Nuclear projects face significant hurdles, including extended construction periods and related risks, long licensing processes and manpower shortages, plus long‐standing issues related to waste disposal, proliferation and local opposition. The financing of new nuclear power plants, especially in liberalized markets, has always been difficult and the financial crisis seems almost certain to have made it even more so. The huge capital requirements, combined with risks of cost overruns and regulatory uncertainties, make investors and lenders very cautious, even when demand growth is robust.International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2009, p. 160.
In March 2011 the nuclear accident at Japan's Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant and shutdowns at other nuclear facilities raised questions among some commentators over the future of nuclear power generation.Nuclear Renaissance Threatened as Japan’s Reactor Struggles Bloomberg, published March 2011. Retrieved March 14, 2011.Analysis: Nuclear renaissance could fizzle after Japan quake Reuters, published March 14, 2011. Retrieved March 14, 2011.Japan nuclear woes cast shadow over U.S. energy policy Reuters, published 2011-03-13, accessed 2011-03-14Nuclear winter? Quake casts new shadow on reactors MarketWatch, published 2011-03-14, accessed 2011-03-14Will China's nuclear nerves fuel a boom in green energy? Channel 4, published March 17, 2011. Retrieved March 17, 2011. Platts reported that "the crisis at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plants has prompted leading energy-consuming countries to review the safety of their existing reactors and cast doubt on the speed and scale of planned expansions around the world".
Following the accident, the government of Germany announced a phaseout of nuclear power in the near future. As a result, German constructor Siemens exited the sector, and supported the German government's planned energy transition to renewable energy technologies, leaving Areva as the sole actor in EPR construction. China, Switzerland, Israel, Malaysia, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Italy and the Philippines reviewed their nuclear power programs. Indonesia and Vietnam still planned to build nuclear power plants.Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu: Japan situation has "caused me to reconsider" nuclear power Piers Morgan on CNN, published March 17, 2011. Retrieved March 17, 2011.Israeli PM cancels plan to build nuclear plant xinhuanet.com, published 2011-03-18, accessed 2011-03-17 Countries such as Australia, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Portugal, Israel, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Norway remained opposed to nuclear power.
Following the accident, the International Energy Agency halved its estimate of additional nuclear generating capacity built by 2035.
The World Nuclear Association has reported that “nuclear power generation suffered its biggest ever one-year fall through 2012 as the bulk of the Japanese fleet remained offline for a full calendar year”. Data from the International Atomic Energy Agency showed that nuclear power plants globally produced 2346 TWh of electricity in 2012 – seven per cent less than in 2011. The figures illustrate the effects of a full year of 48 Japanese power reactors producing no power during the year. The permanent closure of eight reactor units in Germany was also a factor. Problems at Crystal River, Fort Calhoun and the two San Onofre units in the USA meant they produced no power for the full year, while in Belgium Doel 3 and Tihange 2 were out of action for six months. Compared to 2010, the nuclear industry produced 11% less electricity in 2012.
As of July 2013, "a total of 437 nuclear reactors were operating in 30 countries, seven fewer than the historical maximum of 444 in 2002. Since 2002, utilities have started up 28 units and disconnected 36 including six units at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. The 2010 world reactor fleet had a total nominal capacity of about 370 gigawatts (or thousand megawatts). Despite seven fewer units operating in 2013 than in 2002, the capacity is still about 7 gigawatts higher". The numbers of new operative reactors, final shutdowns and new initiated constructions according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 2010 are as follows:
Overview A total of 72 reactors were under construction at the beginning of 2014, the highest number in 25 years. Several of the under construction reactors are carry over from earlier eras; some are partially completed reactors on which work has resumed (e.g., in Argentina); some are small and experimental (e.g., Russian floating reactors); and some have been on the IAEA's “under construction” list for years (e.g., in India and Russia). Reactor projects in Eastern Europe are essentially replacing old Soviet reactors shut down due to safety concerns. Most of the 2010 activity ― 30 reactors ― is taking place in four countries: China, India, Russia and South Korea. Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Iran are the only countries that are currently building their first power reactors, Iran's construction began decades ago.Trevor Findlay (2010). The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation: Overview , The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, pp. 10–11.
Various barriers to a nuclear renaissance have been suggested. These include: unfavourable economics compared to other sources of energy, slowness in addressing climate change, industrial bottlenecks and personnel shortages in the nuclear sector, and the contentious issue of what to do with nuclear waste or spent nuclear fuel.George Monbiot "Nuclear vs Nuclear vs Nuclear", The Guardian, February 2, 2012 There are also concerns about more nuclear accidents, security, and nuclear weapons proliferation.Trevor Findlay. The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation February 4, 2010.M.V. Ramana. Nuclear Power: Economic, Safety, Health, and Environmental Issues of Near-Term Technologies, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2009, 34, pp. 144–145.
New reactors under construction in Finland and France, which were meant to lead a nuclear renaissance, have been delayed and are running over-budget.James Kanter. Is the Nuclear Renaissance Fizzling? Green, 29 May 2009.James Kanter. In Finland, Nuclear Renaissance Runs Into Trouble New York Times, May 28, 2009.Rob Broomby. Nuclear dawn delayed in Finland BBC News, 8 July 2009. China has 22 new reactors under construction, and there are also a considerable number of new reactors being built in South Korea, India, and Russia. At the same time, at least 100 older and smaller reactors will "most probably be closed over the next 10–15 years".Michael Dittmar. Taking stock of nuclear renaissance that never was Sydney Morning Herald, August 18, 2010. So the expanding nuclear programs in Asia are balanced by retirements of aging plants and nuclear reactor phase-outs.
A study by UBS, reported on April 12, 2011, predicts that around 30 nuclear plants may be closed worldwide, with those located in seismic zones or close to national boundaries being the most likely to shut. The analysts believe that 'even pro-nuclear countries such as France will be forced to close at least two reactors to demonstrate political action and restore the public acceptability of nuclear power', noting that the events at Fukushima 'cast doubt on the idea that even an advanced economy can master nuclear safety'.Nucléaire : une trentaine de réacteurs dans le monde risquent d'être fermés Les Échos, published April 12, 2011. Retrieved April 15, 2011 In September 2011, German engineering giant Siemens announced it will withdraw entirely from the nuclear industry, as a response to the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.