Statewide opinion polling for the 2004 United States presidential election

This article provides a collection of statewide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the 2004 United States presidential election. All candidates involved in polling are John Kerry, against incumbent President George W. Bush, with third-party candidates Ralph Nader (Independent), Michael Badnarik (Libertarian), David Cobb (Green), and Michael Peroutka (Constitution). Additional third-party candidates were on the Minnesota presidential ballot.

Opinion polling

Alabama 9 electoral votes(Republican in 1996)(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source Date administered (2004) John Kerry George W. Bush MarginSample sizeMargin of errorRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchOctober 21–3042%53%11Not reported±5%WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSAWKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSAOctober 25–2739%57%18634 LV±4%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchOctober 6–2041%53%12Not reported±5%WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSAWKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSAOctober 1–334%62%28600 LV±4%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchSeptember 15–2840%56%16Not reported±5%American Research GroupAmerican Research GroupSeptember 13–1640%54%14600 LV±4%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchSeptember 3–1442%53%11416 LV±5%Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterAlabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterAugust 30–3134%54%20482 LVNot reportedRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchAugust 1–2642%53%11500 LV±5%WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSAWKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSAAugust 21–2337%58%21599 LV±4.1%Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterAlabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterJuly 22–2834%56%22590 LVNot reportedRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchJune 1–3038%52%14Not reported±5%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchMay 1–3136%57%21Not reported±5%Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterAlabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterMay 4–6, 17–2037%56%19785 RV±3.5%Mobile Register/University of South AlabamaMobile Register/University of South AlabamaMay 10–1335%55%20400 RV±5%WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSAWKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSAMay 1–336%55%19743 LV±3.7%University of South AlabamaMarch 15–1827%59%32405 A±5% Three-way race Poll SourceDate administered (2004)John KerryGeorge W. BushRalph NaderMarginSample sizeMargin of errorAlabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterAlabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterOctober 11–1332%56%1%24546 LV±4%Mobile Register/University of South AlabamaMobile Register/University of South AlabamaSeptember 27–3022%59%1%37519 LV±4.3%Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterAlabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research CenterAugust 9–1234%51%1%17Not reportedNot reportedMobile Register/University of South AlabamaMay 10–1329%54%5%25400 RV±5%

Alaska 3 electoral votes(Republican in 1996)(Republican in 2000)

Three-way race Poll SourceDate administered (2004)John KerryGeorge W. BushRalph NaderMarginSample sizeMargin of errorAmerican Research GroupSeptember 9–1130%57%5%27600 LV±4%Dittman ResearchDittman ResearchJune 23–3033%56%5%23511 RV±4%

Arizona 10 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source Date administered (2004) John Kerry George W. Bush MarginSample sizeMargin of errorKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAOctober 28–3041%56%15599 LV±4.1%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchOctober 2645%50%5500 LV±4.5%The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupThe Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupOctober 18–1940%47%7600 LV±4%KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAOctober 17–1943%54%11616 LV±4%Zogby InteractiveZogby InteractiveOctober 15–1847%50%3Not reportedNot reportedNorthern Arizona UniversityNorthern Arizona UniversityOctober 7–1144%49%5401 LV±5%KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAOctober 5–741%55%14599 LV±4.1%Zogby InteractiveOctober 2–547%50%3Not reportedNot reportedThe Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupThe Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupOctober 2–438%48%10601 LV±4%SurveyUSASurveyUSASeptember 27–2944%53%9Not reportedNot reportedKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSASeptember 21–2343%54%11631 LV±4%Bradenton.com/Mason-Dixon Polling & ResearchBradenton.com/Mason-Dixon Polling & ResearchSeptember 13–1439%50%11625 LV±4%The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupThe Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupSeptember 3–538%54%16600 LV±4%KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityAugust 19–2239%47%8400 RV±4.9%The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupThe Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupJuly 30–August 145%48%3601 LV±4%KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityJuly 15–1742%41%1Not reported±5%KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAJuly 12–1441%53%12767 LV±3.6%Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)June 30–July 736%46%10Not reportedNot reportedRepublican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R)Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 1–645.3%48.3%3800 LV±3.46%Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)April 29–May 442%46%4555 RV±4.2%KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityApril 23–2638%41%3410 RV±4.8%KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAMarch 17–1842%51%9634 LV±4%KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityFebruary 19–2246%44%2430 RV±4.7%KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAKVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSAFebruary 18–1944%52%8534 RV±4.3%Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)January 6–1238%48%10704 A±3.7%KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityNovember 14–17, 200333%51%18Not reportedNot reported Three-way race Poll SourceDate administered (2004)John KerryGeorge W. BushRalph NaderMichael BadnarikMarginSample sizeMargin of errorKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityOctober 19–2142%49%N/A1%7Not reportedNot reportedKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversitySeptember 23–2638%53%N/A1%15Not reportedNot reportedZogby InteractiveZogby InteractiveSeptember 13–1748%49%3%N/A1Not reportedNot reportedAmerican Research GroupAmerican Research GroupSeptember 11–1443%49%1%N/A6600 LV±4%KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityJune 24–2735%47%2%N/A12400 RV±4.9%The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupThe Arizona Republic/Market Solutions GroupJune 10–1341%44%2%N/A3600 RV±4%KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityKAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State UniversityMay 20–2338%43%2%N/A5377 RV±5.1%Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)April 29–May 437%45%7%N/A8555 RV±4.2%

Arkansas 6 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Republican in 2000)

Poll Source Date administered (2004) John Kerry George W. Bush MarginSample sizeMargin of errorKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAOctober 30–November 146%51%5550 LV±4.3%MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & ResearchMSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & ResearchOctober 27–2943%51%8625 LV±4%KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAOctober 23–2545%51%6649 LV±3.9%KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAOctober 15–1746%51%5617 LV±4%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchOctober 1145%51%6Not reported±5%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 1–344%53%9Not reportedNot reportedKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSASeptember 27–2944%53%9579 LV±4.2%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchSeptember 12–2544%51%7500 LV±5%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchAugust 1–2643%49%6Not reported±5%KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAAugust 20–2247%48%1567 LV±4.2%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchJuly 1–3146%46%TiedNot reported±5%KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAJuly 6–847%49%2546 LV±4.3%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchJune 1–3046%45%1Not reported±5%Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 1–643.8%49.5%5.7800 LV±3.46%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchMay 1–3143%48%5Not reported±5%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchRasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchMay 245%45%Tied500 LV±4.5%KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAKTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSAApril 14–1545%47%2565 LV±4.2%Arkansas State UniversityArkansas State UniversityMarch 1–April 843%51%8418 A±5% Three-way race Poll SourceDate administered (2004)John KerryGeorge W. BushRalph NaderMarginSample sizeMargin of errorWall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveOctober 25–3046.9%50.1%0.5%3.2620 LV±3.9%Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research AssociatesArkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research AssociatesOctober 18–2048%48%1%Tied500 LV±4.5%University of ArkansasUniversity of ArkansasOctober 5–2044%53%2%9618 LV±3.5%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveOctober 13–1848.4%49.7%0.2%1.3516 LV±4.3%Arkansas Democrat-Gazette/Zogby InternationalArkansas Democrat-Gazette/Zogby InternationalOctober 10–1144.6%46.2%2%1.6503 LV±4.5%Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research AssociatesArkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research AssociatesOctober 4–643%52%1%9502 LV±4.5%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveSeptember 30–October 546.9%46.7%0.7%0.2545 LV±3.6%American Research GroupAmerican Research GroupSeptember 15–1745%48%2%3600 LV±4%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveWall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveSeptember 13–1746.6%46.5%2.2%0.1582 LV±4.1%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveAugust 30–September 345.9%47.6%0.6%1.7574 LV±4.1%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveAugust 16–2148.2%45.6%0.8%2.6508 LV±4.4%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveJuly 26–3046.4%47.9%0.5%1.5503 LV±4.4%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveWall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveJuly 19–2344.6%47.4%2%2.8512 LV±4.3%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveJuly 6–1044.5%46.7%4.4%2.2508 LV±4.4%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveJune 15–2046.8%44.7%2.1%2.1505 LV±4.4%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveJune 1–643.5%51.2%1.6%7.7699 LV±3.7%Wall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveWall Street Journal/Zogby InteractiveMay 18–2344.5%49.3%1.2%4.8497 LV±4.5%Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion ResearchMay 245%45%0%Tied500 LV±4.5%

California 55 electoral votes(Democrat in 1996)(Democrat in 2000)