Demographic history of Japan before the Meiji Restoration

Demographic features of the population of Japan before the Meiji Restoration include aspects of nationality, religion, and ethnicity.

Population before Edo era Total population Before the establishment of the religious and population investigation registers system by the Tokugawa shogunate, several less reliable sources existed upon which an estimate of the population was made. The first record of the population was the Chinese text "Records of Three Kingdoms" where the summated number of houses in eight countries of Wō is given as 159,000.

The household registration system (Hukou () or Huji ()), which is called in Japanese, was introduced from ancient China to Japan during the 7th century. According to "", the first koseki system, called or , was established between 670 or 690, and was to be readministered every six years. However, most of the original koseki texts were lost because they were to be preserved only 30 years. The oldest koseki fragments - which were reused as reinforcement papers () in - records names, ages and estates of people including slaves (e.g. 1,119 persons were recorded for the village named (present day ) in 702)). A discarded lacquer-coated paper document () found in , Ishioka, Ibaraki records the total population of families of taxpayers in in 795 was 191,660 (excluding families of officers, families of workers for Shintō shrines and slaves); this is the only reliable remaining census recorded for a whole province before the Edo period. The ancient koseki system later collapsed during the early Heian period, when aristocrats achieved power as landowners of Shōen.

The following estimates by different scholars are based upon the number of houses, villages, kokudaka, areas of rice fields and soldiers which were recorded in "" (10th century), "Record of Song or History of Song ()", "" (14th century), "" (late 16th century), "" (early 17th century), or fragments of papers of the Shōsōin (8th century) and others, as well as remnants of specific periods.

+ Estimated population of Japan before Edo period.YearEstimated Population by McEvedy & Jones (1978)Estimated Population by Kitō (1996)Hiroshi Kito, "The Regional Population of Japan before the Meiji Period", Jochi Keizai Ronsyu 41(1–2), pp. 65–79 (1996) (in Japanese).Estimated Population by Biraben (2005)(a) Jean-Noël Biraben, "The History of the Human Population From the First Beginnings to the Present" in "Demography: Analysis and Synthesis: A Treatise in Population" (Eds: Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin, Guillaume J. Wunsch) Vol 3, Chapter 66, pp 5–18, Academic Press, San Diego (2005). (b) Jean-Noël Biraben, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 1–13 (1980). (c) Jean-Noël Biraben, "Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes", Population Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 13–25 (1979).Estimated Population by Farris (2006)(a) William Wayne Farris, "Japan's Medieval Population: Famine, Fertility, and Warfare in a Transformative Age", University of Hawaii's Press, Honolulu (2006), . (b) William Wayne Farris, "Daily life and demographics in ancient Japan", Michigan monograph series in Japanese studies no. 63, Center for Japanese Studies, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (2009).6100 BC20,1003200 BC105,5002300 BC261,3001300 BC160,300900 BC75,800400 BC100,000200 BC100,000200,0001 AD300,000300,000200700,000594,900500,0004001,500,0001,500,0005002,000,0006003,000,0004,000,0007005,000,0007154,512,2007305,800,000–6,400,0008004,000,0005,506,2006,000,0009006,441,4007,000,0009504,400,000–5,600,00010004,500,0007,000,00011005,750,0007,000,00011506,836,9005,500,000–6,300,00012007,500,0006,000,00012506,000,00012805,700,000–6,200,00013009,750,0007,000,00013407,000,000140012,500,0008,000,00014509,600,000–10,500,000150017,000,0008,000,000160022,000,00012,273,00012,000,00015,000,000–17,000,000165025,000,00017,497,900170029,000,00028,287,20028,000,000

Urban population Since Kyōto (or Heian-kyō) became the capital of Japan in 794, it has been one of the most important cities in Japan. Hiraizumi and Kamakura flourished under Northern Fujiwara clans (during 12th century) and Kamakura shogunate (1192 to 1333), respectively. The urban area of Kyōto suffered from the Ōnin War (1467 to 1477) and split into two districts, but coalesced into a great city of more than 400,000 inhabitants after the end of Sengoku period. The Christian missionaries led by Francis Xavier reported that the number of houses in Kyōto, Yamaguchi or Hakata was more than 90,000, more than 10,000 or 10,000, respectively, in the late 16th century according to History of Japan written by Luís Fróis. After the unification of Japan by Toyotomi Hideyoshi, Ōsaka grew into a populous city with tens of thousands of people. Several castle towns also began to grow, where samurai classes were settled.

+ Estimated population of urbans before Edo era (Chandler, 1987).Tertius Chandler, "Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical Census", The Edwin Mellen Press, Lewiston (1987).YearAsukaHeijō-kyō (Nara)Heian-kyō (Kyōto)HiraizumiHakataKamakuraYamaguchiSakaiŌsakaSumpu (Shizuoka)Edo (Tōkyō)Kanazawa62250,000–60,000750100,000800200,000900200,000925200,0001000175,0001100175,0001150150,00050,000-100‚0009,0001200100,000Chandler's estimated population for Kamakura is rather too high. Recent estimate Kamakura by Susumu Ishii and Shinichirō Kōno (1989) is 64,100–100,900. 175,000125070,000 200,000130040,000 200,0001350Tomohiko Harada, "Chūsei ni okeru toshi no kenkyū (A study of cities in the middle ages)", Dai Nihon Yūbenkai Kōdansha, Tokyo (1942) (in Japanese). 8,000150,0001400150,00040,00014508,000150,000(1471)50,00035,000150040,00030,00035,00030,00025,000–26,000155010,000100,000(1570)17,00060,00060,000(1562)10,000(1530)10,0001575300,000(1579)35,00090,00075,000(1583)100,0001600300,00050,00080,000(1582)82,000Chandler's estimated population for Ōsaka (360,000) includes Sakai (ca. 80,000). 280,000100,00060,00050,000

Population during the Edo and early Meiji eras (1600 to 1873)

Total population After the Shimabara Rebellion, several daimyōs adopted certification systems where all the individuals were to be registered to temples and shrines to avoid Christianity. The Danka system (or ) was officially set by Tokugawa shogunate in 1664, and demographic data of individuals registered to temples and shrines (Shūmon Ninbetsu Aratame Chō) were recorded. After decades, Tokugawa Yoshimune decided to survey the total population of Japan and ordered to collect demographic data of all the domains () and shogunate territories (). The first census was surveyed every six years since 1721 and finished in 1846, because the confusion after the Perry Expedition and death of Tokugawa Ieyoshi in 1853 postponed the calculation process of the demographic data collected in 1852, according to edited by .

Some of population censuses during Edo era remain recorded in diaries or official texts as below. The population of samurai class and their servants as well as imperial families and noblemen was officially excluded from the census. In addition, the demographic data were summarized by individual domains according to their rules, where babies and children, Buddhist monks, nuns and Shintō priests, discriminated classes of eta and hinin were sometimes excluded from the total population. Unregistered people were also excluded.

In 1732, Tokugawa Yoshimune also ordered nine big Tozama daimyōs whose Domains were not changed since 1664 to report earlier population growths in their Domains. Here, population of Morioka Domain increased from 245,635 in 1669 to 322,109 in 1732; population of Tokushima Domain increased from 308,880 in 1665 to 470,512 in 1732; population of Tsu Domain increased from 252,061 in 1665 to 287,242 in 1732; population of Okayama Domain increased from 185,043 in 1686 to 396,469 in 1732; population of Kagoshima Domain increased from 260,961 in 1698 to 339,955 in 1732; population of Sendai Domain increased from 599,241 in 1690 to 647,427 in 1732; population of Tsuruoka Domain increased from 126,383 in 1694 to 131,164 in 1732; population of Kaga Domain increased from 551,754 in 1720 to 576,734 in 1732; while population of Nihonmatsu Domain only decreased from 73,351 in 1685 to 70,614 in 1732, according to the records written in "Chikkyō Yohitsu Besshū", which supports the rapid population growth in the early Edo era.

+ Historical demographics of Japan compiled by Tokugawa Shogunate and Meiji Government.Year in GregoriancalendarYear in JapanesecalendarNo. of Bakufu CensusTotalMaleFemaleSourcesEstimated Population (17% added) by Biraben (1993)Jean-Noël Biraben, "Le Point sur l'Histoire de la Population du Japon", Population Vol. 48 (no. 2), pp. 443-472 (1993).Estimated Population (20% added) by Kito (1996)1721Kyōhō 61st26,065,422, (written by )30,496,90031,278,5001726Kyōhō 112nd26,548,998Chikkyō Yohitsu Besshū, Suijin Roku31,104,4001732Kyōhō 173rd26,921,81614,407,10712,514,709 (written by ),Chikkyō Yohitsu Besshū, Suijin Roku31,498,5001744Enkyō 35th26,153,450 (written by )30,599,5001750Kan'en 36th25,917,83013,818,65412,099,176Kanchū Hisaku, Suijin Roku30,323,90031,010,8001756Hōreki 67th26,061,83013,833,31112,228,519 (written by )Kanchū Hisaku, Suijin Roku30,502,70031,282,5001762Hōreki 128th25,921,45813,785,40012,136,058Suijin Roku30,328,1001768Meiwa 59th26,252,057Suijin Roku30,714,9001774An'ei 310th25,990,451Suijin Roku30,408,8001780An'ei 911th26,010,600Suijin Roku30,432,4001786Tenmei 612th25,086,46613,230,65611,855,810Suijin Roku,Suijin Roku29,351,20030,103,8001792Kansei 413th24,891,44113,034,52111,856,920 Vol. 25, Vol. 87 (written by ),Suijin Roku29,123,00029,869,7001798Kansei 1014th25,471,03313,360,52012,110,513Zassai, Kasshi Yawa Vol. 87, Suijin Roku,29,801,10030,565,2001804Bunka 115th25,621,95713,427,24912,194,708Suijin Roku,29,977,69030,746,4001822Bunsei 518th26,602,11013,894,43612,707,674,Kansei Jū-nen Oyobi Bunsei Go-nen Kunibetsu Ninzū Chō31,124,50031,913,5001828Bunsei 1119th27,201,40014,160,73613,040,664,Tokugawa Rizai Kaiyō, 31,825,60032,625,8001834Tenpo 520th27,063,90714,053,45513,010,45231,664,80032,476,7001840Tenpo 1121st25,918,41213,359,38412,559,02831,102,1001846Kōka 322nd26,907,62513,854,04313,053,582Suijin Roku31,481,90032,297,200Jul 28, 18707th month, 1st dayMeiji 332,794,89716,733,69816,061,199(Total Koseki Population)34,620,000Mar 8, 18721st month, 29th dayMeiji 533,110,82516,796,15816,314,667(Total Koseki Population)34,883,00034,806,000Jan 1, 1873Jan 1, Meiji 633,300,64416,891,71516,408,929Nihon Zenkoku Koseki hyō(Total Koseki Population)35,069,00034,985,000

Total Fertility Rate from 1800 to 1873

The total fertility rate is the number of children born per woman. It is based on approximated and fairly good data for the entire period. Sources: Our World In Data and Gapminder Foundation.

Years 18001801180218031804180518061807180818091810Total Fertility Rate in Japan4.084.11 4.144.174.24.234.254.284.314.344.37 Years 1811181218131814181518161817181818191820Total Fertility Rate in Japan4.44.43 4.434.444.444.454.454.454.464.46 Years 1821182218231824182518261827182818291830Total Fertility Rate in Japan4.474.47 4.484.484.484.494.494.54.54.51 Years 1831183218331834183518361837183818391840Total Fertility Rate in Japan4.514.51 4.524.524.534.534.544.544.554.56 Years 1841184218431844184518461847184818491850Total Fertility Rate in Japan4.584.59 4.64.614.624.644.654.664.674.68 Years 1851185218531854185518561857185818591860Total Fertility Rate in Japan4.74.71 4.724.734.744.764.774.784.794.8 Years 1861186218631864186518661867186818691870187118721873Total Fertility Rate in Japan4.824.83 4.844.74.554.414.274.133.983.73.73.563.41

Regional population

Former provinces Some demographic data for former provinces or remain recorded. Similarly to the total population, recorded provincial population excludes ruling and exceptional classes, while that in 1873 (after Meiji Restoration) includes all the registered people.