Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket of former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Virginia junior senator Tim Kaine, in what was considered one of the biggest political upsets in American history. It was the fifth and most recent presidential election in which the winning candidate lost the popular vote.
Incumbent Democratic president Barack Obama was ineligible to run for a third term due to the term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Clinton—wife of former president Bill Clinton and as such a former first lady—secured the nomination over U.S. senator Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary and became the first female presidential nominee of a major American political party. Initially considered a novelty candidate, Trump presented himself as a blunt-spoken political outsider and emerged as the Republican front-runner, defeating several notable opponents, including U.S. senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, as well as governors John Kasich and Jeb Bush. Trump's right-wing populist and nationalist campaign promised to "Make America Great Again" and opposed political correctness and many US free trade agreements,Becker, Bernie (February 13, 2016). "Trump's six populist positions" . Politico. Retrieved March 8, 2018. while supporting a more hard-line approach on illegal immigration. Trump garnered extensive free media coverage due to his inflammatory comments.Nicholas Confessore & Karen Yourish, "Measuring Donald Trump's Mammoth Advantage in Free Media" , The New York Times (March 16, 2016).Walsh, Kenneth. "How Donald Trump's Media Dominance Is Changing the 2016 Campaign". U.S. News & World Report. Archived from the original on February 25, 2016. Retrieved February 17, 2016. Clinton emphasized her extensive political experience; denounced Trump and half of his supporters as "deplorable" bigots and extremists; and advocated the expansion of Obama's policies, stressing racial equality, LGBT rights, women's rights, and inclusive capitalism.Chozick, Amy (March 4, 2016). "Clinton Offers Economic Plan Focused on Jobs" . The New York Times. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
The tone of the election campaign was widely characterized as divisive, negative, and troubling.Wallace, Gregory (November 8, 2016). "Negative ads dominate in campaign's final days" . CNN. Retrieved March 8, 2018.Cassidy, John (November 5, 2016). "Closing Arguments: The Logic of Negative Campaigning" . The New Yorker. Retrieved March 8, 2018. "This Presidential campaign has been the most bitter in recent American history."Pew Research Center (November 21, 2016). "Voters' evaluations of the campaign: Campaign viewed as heavy on negative campaigning, light on issues" . Retrieved March 8, 2018 Trump faced controversy over his views on race and immigration, incidents of violence against protesters at his rallies,Tiefenthaler, Ainara (March 14, 2016). "Trump's History of Encouraging Violence" . The New York Times. Retrieved November 8, 2016.Nguyen, Tina (March 11, 2016). "Donald Trump's Rallies Are Becoming Increasingly Violent" . Vanity Fair. Retrieved March 12, 2016.Jacobs, Ben (March 11, 2016). "Trump campaign dogged by violent incidents at rallies" . The Guardian. Retrieved March 12, 2016. and numerous sexual misconduct allegations including the Access Hollywood tape. Clinton's popularity and public image were tarnished by concerns about her ethics, trustworthiness,McCarthy, Justin (July 1, 2016). "Americans' Reactions to Trump, Clinton Explain Poor Images" . Gallup News. Retrieved August 20, 2019. and a controversy and subsequent FBI investigation regarding her improper use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state, the latter of which received more media coverage than any other topic during the campaign. Clinton led in almost every nationwide and swing-state poll, with some predictive models giving her over a 90 percent chance of victory.
On election day, Trump over-performed his polls, winning several key swing states to achieve a majority in the Electoral College while losing the nationwide popular vote by 2.87 million votes. Key to Trump's pivotal upset victory were his wins in the Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which he carried by fewer than 80,000 votes in the three "blue wall" states combined and gained a combined 46 electoral votes. Trump's surprise victories were perceived to have been assisted by Clinton's lack of campaigning in some swing states (especially Wisconsin), the rightward shift of the white working class, as well as the influence of Obama–Trump voters and Sanders–Trump voters. Ultimately, Trump received 304 electoral votes to Clinton's 227, as two faithless electors defected from Trump and five from Clinton. Trump was the first president with neither prior public service nor military experience.
With ballot access to the entire national electorate, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson received nearly 4.5 million votes (3.27%), the highest nationwide vote share for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1996, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein received almost 1.45 million votes (1.06%). Independent candidate Evan McMullin received 21.4% of the vote in his home state of Utah, the highest share of the vote for a non-major party candidate in any state since 1992.
On January 6, 2017, the U.S. Intelligence Community concluded that the Russian government had interfered in the election in order to "undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency". A Special Counsel investigation concluded in March 2019 that Russia had interfered "in sweeping and systematic fashion" in favor of Trump's candidacy but did not establish that members of the Trump campaign colluded with the Russian government.Mueller Report , vol. I, p. 1: "The Russian government interfered in the 2016 presidential election in sweeping and systematic fashion. [...] Although the investigation established that the Russian government perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency and worked to secure that outcome, and that the Campaign expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts, the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities."
Background
President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. senator from Illinois, was ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to the restrictions of the American presidential term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment.
Both the Democratic and Republican parties, as well as third parties such as the Green and Libertarian parties, held a series of presidential primary elections and caucuses that took place between February and June 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories. This nominating process was also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who in turn elected their party's presidential nominee. Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring that the race had begun in an article published on November 8, two days after the 2012 election. On the same day, Politico released an article predicting that the 2016 general election would be between Clinton and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, while an article in The New York Times named New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Senator Cory Booker from New Jersey as potential candidates.
Nominations Republican Party Primaries
With seventeen major candidates entering the race, starting with Ted Cruz on March 23, 2015, this was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history, before being overtaken by the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries.
Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Trump came in second to Cruz, after which Huckabee, Paul, and Santorum withdrew due to poor performances at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina, and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush followed suit after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio, and Cruz in South Carolina. On March 1, the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma, and his home state of Texas, and Trump won the other seven states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later. On March 15, the second "Super Tuesday", Kasich won his only contest in his home state of Ohio, and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state.
Between March 16 and May 3, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz, and Kasich. Cruz won the most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on the first ballot with 1,237 delegates. Trump then augmented his lead by scoring landslide victories in his home state of New York and five Northeastern states in April, followed by a decisive victory in Indiana on May 3, securing all 57 of the state's delegates. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, both Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns. Trump remained the only active candidate and was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3.
A 2018 study found that media coverage of Trump led to increased public support for him during the primaries. The study showed that Trump received nearly $2 billion in free media, more than double any other candidate. Political scientist John M. Sides argued that Trump's polling surge was "almost certainly" due to frequent media coverage of his campaign. Sides concluded "Trump is surging in the polls because the news media has consistently focused on him since he announced his candidacy on June 16". Prior to clinching the Republican nomination, Trump received little support from establishment Republicans.
Nominees
2016 Republican Party ticket for Presidentfor Vice President Chairman of The Trump Organization(1971–2017) 50thgovernor of Indiana(2013–2017)Campaign
Candidates
Major candidates were determined by the various media based on common consensus. The following were invited to sanctioned televised debates based on their poll ratings.
Trump received 14,010,177 total votes in the primary. Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich each won at least one primary, with Trump receiving the highest number of votes and Ted Cruz receiving the second highest.