The economy of the Ming dynasty (1368–1644) was the largest in the world at the time, with China's share of the world's gross domestic product estimated at 31%, and other estimates at 25% by 1500 and 29% by 1600. The Ming era is considered one of the three golden ages of China, alongside the Han and Tang dynasties.
The founder of the Ming dynasty, the Hongwu Emperor, aimed to create a more equal society with self-sufficient peasant farms, supplemented by necessary artisans and merchants in the cities. The state was responsible for distributing surpluses and investing in infrastructure. To achieve this goal, the state administration was reestablished and tax inventories of the population and land were conducted. Taxes were lowered from the high levels imposed during the Mongol-led Yuan dynasty. The government's support for agricultural production and reconstruction of the country resulted in surpluses, which were then traded in markets. This also led to the emergence of property differentiation and the growing political influence of large landowners (gentry) and merchants, ultimately weakening the power of the government.
During the middle Ming period, there was a gradual relaxation of state control over the economy. This was evident in the government's decision to abolish state monopolies on the production of salt and iron, and to privatize these and other industries such as textiles, porcelain, and paper mills. This led to the establishment of numerous private enterprises, some of which were quite large and employed hundreds of workers who were paid wages. In the agricultural sector, there was a growing trend of farms specializing in crops for the market, with different regions focusing on different crops. This also led to the expansion of market-oriented enterprises that grew crops such as tea, fruit, and industrial crops like lacquerware and cotton on a large scale. This regional specialization in agriculture continued into the Qing dynasty. Additionally, there was a shift from paying taxes in the form of products and labor obligations at the beginning of the dynasty to paying them in monetary form over time.
In addition to internal trade, foreign trade also flourished during the Ming era, but it was heavily regulated by the government in the first two centuries. The conservative attitudes of the government towards foreign trade in the early 16th century did not affect its volume, but rather led to its militarization. Eventually, China opened up connections with Europe and America and lifted government prohibitions, becoming a central hub in the global trade network. However, there were still disparities in economic development among different regions of China. As trade routes and economic centers shifted, regions such as Sichuan, Shaanxi, and others lost their significance. The decline of the Silk Road also resulted in the decline of cities like Kaifeng, Luoyang, Chengdu, and Xi'an, which were no longer on the main trade routes. On the other hand, the southeastern coastal provinces and areas along the Yangtze River and Grand Canal experienced significant growth. New cities emerged along these waterways, including Tianjin, Jining, Hankou, Songjiang, and Shanghai. The most populous cities during the Ming dynasty were Beijing and Nanjing, as well as Suzhou, which served as the economic center of China.
Towards the end of the Ming era, natural disasters and the onset of the Little Ice Age caused a significant decline in agricultural production, particularly in the economically weaker northern region of China. The regime was unable to guarantee the safety and well-being of its population, leading to a loss of legitimacy and ultimately, its collapse due to peasant uprisings.
Geography and society Geography Ming China was geographically divided into distinct regions, with the main division being between the north and south, roughly along the Huai River. In the northern region, agriculture was centered around the cultivation of wheat and millet, leading to the consolidation of fields into larger estates. Peasants lived in compact villages that were connected by a network of land routes. The wars that resulted in the establishment of the Ming dynasty caused a decline in population in the north, which allowed for greater control by the authorities through the dense network of counties and prefectures. The Grand Canal, which was restored in the early 15th century, played a significant role in the economy of the north, with several cities growing along its route. In the 1420s, a new metropolis emerged in Beijing, accompanied by a large army of several hundred thousand men stationed in and around the city and on the northern border of the country. In terms of transportation, the north relied on relatively slow methods such as carts and horses, while the south benefited from the abundance of canals, rivers, and lakes, which allowed for faster and cheaper transportation of goods by boat.
In the south, rice was the main crop, requiring significantly more human labor. Growing seedlings, planting, weeding, and harvesting were all done manually, with draft animals only used for plowing. The most developed region in the south, and in all of China, was Jiangnan, which roughly encompassed Zhejiang Province and the southern part of what was then Nanzhili (present-day Anhui and southern Jiangsu). While the provinces of Jiangxi and Huguang also supplied rice to Jiangnan, areas outside of the waterways remained relatively undeveloped. During the Ming era, Jiangxi lost its former importance and its inhabitants moved to Huguang due to overpopulation. The center of Huguang also shifted from Jiangling (present-day Jingzhou) to Hankou. In Fujian, the urban elite became wealthy through maritime trade, as the lack of land there led to a focus on trade. Guangdong remained weakly connected to the developed regions of China for most of the Ming period. Sichuan was a relatively independent peripheral region of the empire, while Yunnan and Guangxi were of minor importance.
Population The economic development of the country was heavily influenced by factors such as population size, population density, and the availability and cost of labor. Due to a lack of reliable data, there is ongoing debate among historians about the exact population size during the Ming era. While censuses from the 1380s and 1390s are considered somewhat trustworthy, they only account for 59–60 million people, excluding soldiers and other groups. Based on these figures, 20th-century historians have estimated the population of Ming China at the end of the 14th century to be between 65–85 million.
During the centuries of internal peace that followed, the population of China experienced significant growth. According to editors of county and prefectural chronicles, the population may have tripled or even quintupled since 1368, reaching its peak in the second half of the 16th century. Modern historians have varying estimates of the population during this time period. John Fairbank suggests 160 million inhabitants by the end of the Ming era, while Timothy Brook writes of 175 million and Patricia Ebrey gives a figure of 200 million. Frederick Mote estimates a population of 231 million by 1600 and 231 to 268 million by 1650. While there is some disagreement among historians, it is clear that the population grew significantly between the late 14th and early 17th centuries. Despite a decline of one-sixth to one-quarter due to peasant uprisings, epidemics, and the Manchu invasion, a new census taken fifteen years after the fall of the Ming dynasty still counted approximately 105 million people.
During the last century of the Ming era, overpopulation led to a decline in living conditions, resulting in increased mortality rates and a decrease in population growth rates and life expectancy in most provinces. This also caused a widening gap in life expectancy between the lower and upper classes of the population. Towards the end of the Ming era and the beginning of the Qing period, there was a reversal of these trends in some provinces, as the population sharply declined.
The settlement of Ming China was characterized by significant disparities. In order to address this issue, the first Ming emperor, Hongwu Emperor (), relocated up to 3 million people, primarily to the underpopulated northern regions. These settlers mainly originated from Shanxi, which had been less affected by the wars. In the south, the Hongwu Emperor also encouraged people from the coastal regions of Fujian and Zhejiang to move inland. Additionally, there was independent migration to the western borderlands of Henan, from the lowlands of Jiangxi to its mountainous areas, and from Jiangxi to Huguang. Settling in these originally sparsely populated regions also had the benefit of lower taxes, as tax quotas for these areas remained low for an extended period of time, regardless of population growth.
According to calculations by American historian and sociologist Gilbert Rozman, at the start of the 16th century, approximately 6.5% of China's population of 130 million resided in cities. The two most populous cities were the capital cities of Beijing and Nanjing, as well as Suzhou, which served as the economic hub of the Ming dynasty. During this time, Beijing had a population of nearly 1 million, Nanjing had over 1 million, and Suzhou had less than 650,000. Other significant economic centers in the country included Hangzhou and Foshan.
Agriculture Climate In pre-industrial societies, agriculture served as the foundation and mainstay of the economy, upon which crafts and trade relied. The production of crops and livestock was greatly influenced by weather patterns and, over time, the effects of climate change. Additionally, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, and epidemics had a significant impact on the overall functioning of the economy.
The Ming period was generally drier than the preceding Yuan era. Winters were cold from 1350 to 1450, with warmer springs beginning around 1400. On average, the temperature was one degree lower than in the second half of the 20th century. The most severe natural disasters during this time were floods in 1353–1354 in northern China, Zhejiang, and Guangxi, as well as in the 1420s in Shanxi.
From 1450 to 1520, there was a drier period characterized by warm springs and winters, although winters did cool down after 1500. Overall, the average temperature remained stable, but the north experienced occasional droughts while the south was plagued by floods. The most severe droughts were recorded in 1452 (in Huguang) and 1504 (in northern China), while the worst floods occurred in 1482 (in Huguang). In 1484, the entire country was hit by an extraordinary drought, and the following years (1485–1487) saw perhaps the greatest disaster of the Ming era: epidemics in northern China and Jiangnan. The south also suffered from floods during 1477–1485.
Between 1520 and 1570, the climate was cooler and wetter, with warmer winters towards the end. The average temperature was 0.5 degrees lower than the previous period. Droughts affected the Yangtze River basin, particularly in Zhejiang, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Hubei, where the worst drought of the Ming era occurred in 1528. The years 1568 and 1569 also saw extreme weather conditions, with both droughts and floods occurring.
From 1570 to 1620, the climate was relatively warm, especially in winter, with an average temperature one degree higher than the previous period. The weather, however, was generally drier, with occasional floods. The most significant disasters during this time were the floods in the north in 1585, followed by a major epidemic in 1586, a country-wide drought in 1589, and droughts in the second decade of the 17th century in Fujian and the north. The year 1613 saw major floods throughout the country.