The 2011 New South Wales state election held on Saturday, 26 March 2011. The 16-year-incumbent Labor Party government led by Premier Kristina Keneally was defeated in a landslide by the Liberal–National Coalition opposition led by Barry O'Farrell.

Labor suffered a two-party swing of 16.4 points, the largest against a sitting government at any level in Australia since World War II. From 50 seats at dissolution, Labor was knocked down to 20 seats—the worst defeat of a sitting government in New South Wales history, and one of the worst of a state government in Australia since federation. The Coalition picked up a 32-seat swing to win a strong majority, with 69 seats–the largest majority government, in terms of percentage of seats controlled, in NSW history. It is only the third time since 1941 that a NSW Labor government has been defeated. It was also notable in that many of Labor's safest seats, such as Newcastle and Parramatta, were won by the Liberal Party on large swings. This election also saw the previous record for largest percentage of seats controlled by the Coalition, which won 74.2 percent of seats (69 out of 93 seats). The previous record for percentage of the legislature controlled was set by Neville Wran's Labor Party in the 1981 election, in which Labor won 69 out of 99 seats (69.7 percent).

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Future premier Dominic Perrottet and future opposition leader Mark Speakman entered parliament at this election.

Background

The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Kristina Keneally, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, were the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower house but achieved significant votes in 2007 include The Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.

On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result of the resignation of the Premier, two of his ministers, and an independent who left after winning a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history. The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7 percentage points in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but it was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich, and a swing of 13 points against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo. Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1 points delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Rob Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party margin of 54.5–45.5%, despite a swing of 23.7 points to the Nationals. On 19 June 2010 a by-election in the electoral district of Penrith was triggered as a result of the resignation of Labor Party MP Karyn Paluzzano, with Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres winning the seat with a two-party-preferred swing of more than 25 points, the biggest swing against an incumbent government in New South Wales history, until the 2013 Miranda by-election which eclipsed it with a 26-point two-party swing against the Liberal/National government.

Key dates Expiry of 54th Parliament: 12am on Friday, 4 March 2011 Issue of Writs: 5 March 2011 Close of Nominations: 10 March 2011 Polling Day: Saturday 26 March 2011 Return of the Writs: 30 April 2011 Meeting of 55th Parliament: By Monday, 16 May 2011

Campaign

The Labor Party launched their campaign on 5 February 2011 in Liverpool within the electoral district of Macquarie Fields. Premier Keneally launched the Labor Party's campaign slogan "Protecting jobs – Supporting families". In attendance for the launch were former Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former Premiers Wran and Carr.

The Liberal and Nationals Coalition launched their campaign on 20 February 2011 at the Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith within the electoral district of Penrith with the slogan: "Real Change for NSW". In attendance for the launch were both Liberal and Nationals Leaders O'Farrell and Stoner as well as federal Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, former Liberal Premiers and Leaders Greiner, Fahey, and Chikarovski.

The Coalition had been leading in opinion polling for almost three years, and were unbackable favourites throughout the campaign to win the election. The final Newspoll had support for Labor at an all-time low with 23 percent of the primary vote and 35.9 percent of the two-party vote. Bookmakers were paying $1.01 for a Coalition win with Labor getting as much as $36 and one agency even paid out the winnings and declared the winner a week earlier. At one point, Labor was widely predicted to win as few as 13 seats, seven less than the actual result. According to several pollsters, Labor was in danger of losing several seats where it had not been seriously threatened in decades, as well as several that it had held for a century or more. Indeed, there were concerns that Labor would not win enough seats to form a credible shadow cabinet.

Resulting parliament The Liberal/National Coalition won the largest proportional number of seats in NSW state history with 69 of 93 seats in the lower house (74.2 percent of the chamber)—in contrast, Labor won 69 of 99 seats (69.7 percent of the chamber) at Neville Wran's second "Wranslide" in 1981 election. Labor won 20 seats, the party's smallest presence in Parliament in over a century, and the worst defeat that a sitting government in NSW has ever suffered. Many prominent Labor MPs and ministers lost their seats including Verity Firth, David Borger, Matt Brown, Jodi McKay, Virginia Judge, Phil Costa and Kevin Greene. In the process, the Coalition took dozens of seats in areas considered Labor heartland, such as western Sydney and the Upper Hunter—some on swings of well over 10 per cent. The Liberals actually won 51 seats, enough for a majority in their own right—the first time the main non-Labor party in the state had achieved this since adopting the Liberal banner in 1945. Although O'Farrell thus had no need for the support of the Nationals, he opted to retain the Coalition.

In the upper house however, where half of the chamber was up for election, the landslide was not enough to deliver a Coalition majority. Three additional votes outside of the Liberal/National Coalition were required to pass legislation. The balance of power shifted from the Greens to the Shooters and Fishers Party and Christian Democratic Party. With two seats each held by the latter two parties, both needed to give legislative support if Labor and the Greens opposed legislation.

Retiring members Where a Member of the Legislative Assembly or Legislative Council did not renominate to contest the election, their term ended at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who confirmed their retirement were:

Legislative Assembly

Labor (22) Marie Andrews (Gosford) John Aquilina (Riverstone) Diane Beamer (Mulgoa) David Campbell (Keira) Barry Collier (Miranda) Angela D'Amore (Drummoyne) Tanya Gadiel (Parramatta) Paul Gibson (Blacktown) Kerry Hickey (Cessnock) Phil Koperberg (Blue Mountains) Grant McBride (The Entrance) Gerard Martin (Bathurst) Lylea McMahon (Shellharbour) Alison Megarrity (Menai) Frank Sartor (Rockdale) Tony Stewart (Bankstown) Joe Tripodi (Fairfield) Graham West (Campbelltown)

Liberal (5) Peter Debnam (Vaucluse) Judy Hopwood (Hornsby) Malcolm Kerr (Cronulla) Wayne Merton (Baulkham Hills) Michael Richardson (Castle Hill)

Nationals (2) John Turner (Myall Lakes) Russell Turner (Orange)

Legislative Council

Labor (4) Tony Catanzariti Kayee Griffin Christine Robertson Ian West

Greens (1) Ian Cohen

Opinion polling Opinion polling was conducted by firms such as Newspoll, Galaxy and Nielsen via random telephone number selection in city and country areas Sampling sizes consist of around 1200–1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points. Graphical summary Primary votes

Two-party preferred

Voting intention +Legislative Assembly pollingDateFirmPrimary voteTPP voteALPL/NPGRN OTHALPL/NP 26 March 2011Nielsen 22% 50% 13% 15%36%64% 21–24 March 2011Newspoll 23% 49% 12% 15%35.9%64.1% 23 March 2011Galaxy 22% 51% 12% 15%34%64% 23 March 2011Essential 23% 55% 11% 11%34%66% 18 March 2011Essential 24% 54% 12% 11%35%65% 9–11 March 2011Newspoll 26% 50% 11% 13%37%63% 4 March 2011Galaxy 23% 50% 14% 13%36%64% 18 February 2011Essential 27% 51% 12% 10% 41%59% Jan-Feb 2011Newspoll 23% 46% 17% 14%38%62% 16 February 2011Nielsen 22% 53% 13% 12%34%66% 20 January 2011Nielsen 20% 51% 15% 14%34%66% Nov-Dec 2010Newspoll 23% 46% 17% 14%37%63% Oct-Dec 2010Morgan 22% 53% 13.5% 11.5%35%65% Sep-Oct 2010Newspoll 23% 46% 17% 14%37%63% Jul-Aug 2010Newspoll 25% 46% 14% 15%39%61% May-Jun 2010Newspoll 25% 46% 16% 12%39%61% Mar-Apr 2010Newspoll 31% 42% 14% 13%45%55% 22 March 2010 Galaxy 29% 44% 14% 13%43%57% 14 January 2010 Galaxy 29% 43% 15% 13%44%56% 4 December 2009 Kristina Keneally replaces Nathan Rees as Labor leader and Premier Nov-Dec 2009 Newspoll 26% 44% 17% 13%41%59% 28 November 2009 Taverner 31% 43% 26%45%55% Sep-Oct 2009 Newspoll 30% 42% 12% 16%45%55% Jul-Aug 2009 Newspoll 32% 41% 14% 13%46%54% May-Jun 2009 Newspoll 31% 41% 14% 14%45%55% 31 May 2009 Taverner 44%56% Mar-Apr 2009 Newspoll 33% 40% 13% 14%47%53% Jan-Feb 2009 Newspoll 30% 42% 15% 13%44%56% Nov-Dec 2008 Newspoll 26% 43% 14% 17%41%59% Sep-Oct 2008 Newspoll 29% 42% 11% 18%44%56% 5 September Nathan Rees replaces Morris Iemma as Labor leader and Premier Jul-Aug 2008 Newspoll 33% 40% 13% 14%48%52% 29 June 2008 Taverner 28% 46% 26%44%56% May-Jun 2008 Newspoll 32% 41% 13% 14%48%52% Mar-Apr 2008 Newspoll 35% 38% 14% 13%51%49% Jan-Mar 2008 Newspoll 34% 39% 14% 13%50%50% 15–19 February 2008 Nielsen 38% 42% 11% 9%50%50% 2 February 2008 Taverner 51% 49% 4 April 2007 Barry O'Farrell succeeds Peter Debnam as Liberal leader and Leader of the Opposition24 March 2007 election38.98%36.99%8.95%15.08%52.26%47.74% 23 March 2007 Nielsen 41% 36% 10% 13%56% 44%

Better Premier and satisfaction Graphical summary