1994 Atlantic hurricane season

The 1994 Atlantic hurricane season was the final season in the most recent negative Atlantic multidecadal oscillation period ("low-activity era" or "cold phase") of tropical cyclone formation within the basin. The season produced seven named tropical cyclones and three hurricanes, a total well below the seasonal average. The season officially started on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally limit the period each year when most tropical cyclones tend to form in the Atlantic Ocean. The first tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Alberto, developed on June 30, while the last storm, Hurricane Gordon, dissipated on November 21. The season was unusual in that it produced no major hurricanes, which are those of Category 3 status or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. The most intense hurricane, Hurricane Florence, peaked as a Category 2 storm with winds of .

Alberto produced significant rainfall and flooding in the Southeastern United States, damaging or destroying over 18,000 homes. In August, Tropical Storm Beryl produced heavy rainfall in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, with moderate to heavy rainfall throughout several other states. Beryl caused numerous injuries, many of which occurred from a tornado associated with the tropical storm. Tropical Storm Debby killed nine people in the Caribbean in September. Hurricane Gordon was the most significant storm of the season, causing damage from Costa Rica to North Carolina among its six landfalls. Extreme flooding and mudslides from Gordon caused approximately 1,122 fatalities in Haiti—almost 97% of deaths this season were due to Gordon. Gordon was also one of the longest-lived Atlantic hurricanes on record at the time. In addition, a nor'easter in December may have had tropical characteristics, though due to the uncertainty, it was not classified as a tropical system.

The season caused 1,197 deaths and around $1.81 billion (1994 USD), mostly because of Gordon and Alberto.

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Seasonal forecasts +Predictions of tropical activity in the 1994 seasonSourceDateNamedstormsHurricanesMajorhurricanesRefAverage (1981–2010) 12.1 6.4 2.7 Record high activity 30 15 7 (Tie) Record low activity 1 0 (tie) 0 CSU November 19, 1993 13 5 2 WRC Early 1994 7 4 N/A CSU March 11, 1994 10 6 3 CSU June 5, 1994 9 5 1 CSU August 4, 1994 7 4 1 Actual activity 7 3 0

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts such as William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University (CSU). A normal season, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has 12.1 named storms, with 6.4 reaching hurricane strength, and 2.7 major hurricanes. On November 19, 1993, CSU predicted that the 1994 season would feature 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, citing expectations of a dissipating El Niño and a lessening of a drought in the Sahel, but also noting that an easterly quasi-biennial oscillation could inhibit tropical cyclogenesis. The Weather Research Center (WRC)'s early 1994 forecast called for 7 named storms and 4 hurricanes. CSU updated their predictions on March 11, decreasing the number of named storms to 10 and hurricanes to 6 but increasing the number of major hurricanes to 3.

After the season began, CSU issued another projection on June 5: 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. This decrease in anticipated activity occurred because El Niño dissipated slower than expected, unfavorable east-west pressure and temperature gradient estimates over west Africa, and unconducive sea-level pressure and zonal wind anomalies values over the Caribbean Sea. These conditions, as well as below-average rainfall over west Africa, led CSU to lower the number of expected named storms and hurricanes to 7 and 4, respectively, in their final seasonal forecast on August 4.

Seasonal summary

The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when the majority of tropical cyclones tend to form in the Atlantic Ocean. In terms of tropical cyclone activity, the season was below average, with only seven named storms, three hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. Only four other seasons since the start of the satellite era—1968, 1972, 1986, and 2013—did not feature a major hurricane. The 1994 season is the most recent negative Atlantic multidecadal oscillation period ("low-activity era" or "cold phase") of tropical cyclone formation. within the basin. No storms of hurricane intensity formed within the months of September and October for the first time since reliable records began in the 1940s. However, the month of November did feature two hurricane formations, the first time that occurred since 1980. The low seasonal activity is attributed to the presence of El Niño, which is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. The 1994 El Niño began in mid-spring that year, though ended in late summer several weeks before the hurricane season ended. Although strong wind shear prevailed over the tropics, the National Hurricane Center noted that this factor "does not in itself easily explain the dearth of activity during these climatologically most active months." due to being confined to a smaller-than-average area. Additionally, abnormally high surface pressures persisted from Africa to the Caribbean, particularly south of 20°N, which tends to reduce the formation of tropical cyclones. Collectively, the cyclones of the 1994 Atlantic hurricane season caused at least $1.81 billion in damage and 1,197 deaths.

Tropical cyclogenesis began on June 30, when Tropical Storm Alberto formed near the western tip of Cuba. After striking Florida on July 3, Alberto dissipated over Alabama four days later. Another tropical depression developed later that month, which made landfall in South Carolina on July 20 and dissipated over North Carolina the next day. Three systems formed in August, Tropical Storm Beryl, Hurricane Chris, and Tropical Depression Five. September featured five cyclones, although they included two tropical storms, Debby and Ernesto, and three tropical depressions. No activity occurred in October. However, the Weather Prediction Center noted that a subtropical storm may have existed early that month and crossed the Southeastern United States. Two storms formed in November, hurricanes Florence and Gordon, which tied 1980 for the most hurricanes in the month of November, a record which stood until 2001. The former peaked as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) and a minimum atmospheric pressure of , making it the most intense cyclone of the season. Gordon dissipated over South Carolina on November 21, ending activity.

The season's activity was reflected in a low cumulative accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 32. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding or tropical storm strength.

Systems Tropical Storm Alberto

The first storm of the season formed on June 30 near the western tip of Cuba. Initially tracking westward, the depression turned towards the north, though it remained poorly defined. Early on July 2, the depression organized into Tropical Storm Alberto. Alberto peaked as a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) and a minimum atmospheric pressure of , and made landfall near Destin, Florida, on July 3. The storm quickly weakened to a tropical depression over Alabama as it continued to the northeast, but retained a well-organized circulation. High pressures built to its north and east, causing the remnant tropical depression to stall over northwestern Georgia. It began a westward drift and dissipated over central Alabama on July 7.

Early in its duration, the storm dropped up to of rain over parts of Cuba. In the United States, Alberto triggered some of the worst flooding ever observed across portions of Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. As a result of the storm's slow motion, of rain fell in some locations. Due to flash flooding, 33 deaths were reported, with 31 in Georgia and 2 in Alabama. Approximately 50,000 people evacuated their homes, while over 18,000 dwellings were damaged or destroyed, and in excess of 1,000 roads sustained damage. About of crops were affected by the storm, and 218 dams failed. Total damage from the storm amounted to $1.03 billion. The flooding from Alberto is considered one the worst natural disasters in Georgia's history.

Tropical Depression Two

The origins of the depression were from a broad upper-level trough that extended northeastward from the Bahamas. An area of convection developed near the Bahamas, spawning a low-pressure area on July 19. The next day, the system organized into Tropical Depression Two, after confirmation from the Hurricane Hunters. Upon developing, the depression was poorly organized, with most of the thunderstorms located south of the center. On July 20, convection increased near the center; however, the depression struck near Georgetown, South Carolina, at 14:00 UTC with winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) and a minimum pressure of . Moving northwestward, the cyclone dissipated on July 21 near Charlotte, North Carolina, while the remnant low tracked northeastward until becoming unidentifiable on July 22 while entering Nova Scotia.

The depression was never forecast to attain tropical storm status. Officials issued flash flood watches for portions of the southeastern United States. Light rains fell throughout the Southeastern United States, the Mid-Atlantic, and parts of New England, peaking at in Hamlet, North Carolina. It was the first tropical system to make landfall in South Carolina since Hurricane Hugo.

Tropical Storm Beryl

After a slow start to the season, a large upper-level low pressure area organized into a tropical depression roughly 120 mi (190 km) south of Pensacola, Florida, on August 14. The center moved slowly and erratically in response to an approaching trough, and after moving towards the north, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Beryl on August 15. Early the next day, Beryl made landfall near Panama City, Florida, with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a minimum pressure of . The cyclone quickly weakened to a tropical depression later on August 16 and accelerated towards the north-northeast. Beryl was last identifiable in Connecticut on August 19, when a frontal trough absorbed it.

Beryl produced sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h), damaging some roofs and toppling trees, signs, and power lines, causing about 20,000 customers to lose electricity. Heavy rainfall in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, with moderate to heavy rainfall throughout several other states. Several rivers from Florida to New York approached or exceeded flood stage. Six people died due to Beryl, all from drowning, three in Florida, two in New York, and one in Georgia. Additionally, several injuries were reported, including 37 due to an associated F3 tornado that touched down in Lexington, South Carolina. Damage in Florida, New York, South Carolina, and Virginia was estimated at $73 million, while two tornadoes in Georgia caused a combined $1.2 million in damage.

Hurricane Chris