The 2010 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010, to elect the governor of Maine. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Baldacci was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Primary elections took place on June 8, 2010. The candidates who appeared on the November ballot were Eliot Cutler (independent), Paul LePage (Republican), Libby Mitchell (Democratic), Shawn Moody (independent), and Kevin Scott (independent).
With 94% of precincts reporting on the day after the election, the Bangor Daily News declared LePage the winner, carrying 38.1% of the votes. Cutler was in second place with 36.7% of the votes (less than 7,500 votes behind LePage), while Mitchell was a distant third with 19%. Moody and Scott had 5% and 1%, respectively. Two days after the election, with 99% of precincts reporting, LePage's lead over Cutler had widened to more than 10,000 votes. This election was the first since 1990 that Maine elected a Republican governor.
Democratic primary
Candidates
On ballot Patrick K. McGowan, former state conservation commissioner Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell, president of the Maine Senate and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1984 Steven Rowe, former Maine attorney general and former state representative Rosa Scarcelli, business owner
Write-in Donna Dion, former mayor of Biddeford. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures, but continued her campaign in the primary as a write-in candidate.
Withdrawn Dawn Hill, state representative. Hill withdrew from the race on January 1, 2010, citing the crowded field of candidates. John G. Richardson, former commissioner of economic and community development and former speaker of the House. Richardson withdrew from the race on April 26 amid allegations that some of his campaign workers had not followed proper procedures for collecting donations to qualify him for Maine Clean Election funding.Richardson withdrawing from governor's race Portland Press Herald, April 26, 2010 The primary ballots had already been printed before Richardson withdrew from the race, so Richardson's name appeared on the ballot even though he was no longer a candidate. Peter Truman (also known as Peter Throumoulos), former state representative and convicted forger. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.
Declined Tom Allen, former U.S. Representative Brian Bolduc, state representative
Polling Poll source Dates administered Mitchell Rowe Scarcelli McGowan UndecidedPan Atlantic SMS GroupPan Atlantic SMS Group May 21–29, 2010 13.3% 11.7% 7.0% 6.3% 61.7%
Results
At 11:32 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Libby Mitchell the winner of the Democratic primary.
Republican primary
Candidates
On ballot Steve Abbott, former chief of staff for Senator Susan Collins William Beardsley, former president of Husson University Matt Jacobson, president of Maine & Company, a private business attraction organization; former president of the St. Lawrence & Atlantic Railroad Paul LePage, mayor of Waterville and general manager of Marden's Surplus & Salvage store chain Peter Mills, state senator and candidate for governor in 2006Mills declares candidacy for governorPeter Mills for Governor of Maine (official candidate website) Les Otten, founder of American Skiing Company and former Boston Red Sox co-ownerLes Otten for Governor (official candidate website) Bruce Poliquin, business owner/manager and economist
Declined Peter Cianchette, United States ambassador to Costa Rica and 2002 Republican nominee for governorCianchette insists he won't run for governor Kevin Raye, State Senate minority leader Josh Tardy, State House minority leader
Polling Poll source Dates administered Otten LePage Mills Abbott Beardsley Poliquin Jacobson UndecidedMECPOMECPONote: Poll paid for by Mills Campaign May 22-June 2, 2010 17.0% 10.7% 22.1% 13.9% 5.9% 4.9% 1.4% 24.0%Pan Atlantic SMS Group May 21–29, 2010 17.0% 10.3% 8.4% 8.3% 3.6% 3.3% 2.0% 47.0%
Results
At 11:19 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Paul LePage the winner of the GOP primary.
Independents
Candidates on the ballot Eliot Cutler, attorney, former staff member for U.S. Senator Edmund Muskie, and former adviser to President Jimmy Carter Shawn Moody, business owner Kevin L. Scott, business owner
Write-in candidates
Beverly Cooper-Pete Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures, but continued her campaign as a write-in candidate. John Jenkins, former state senator, former mayor of both Auburn and Lewiston, and 2002 gubernatorial candidate. Jenkins, who won his most recent mayoral campaign by write-in, declared he would run for governor of Maine if 5,000 people followed his Facebook fan pageDraft John Jenkins to be Maine Governor in 2010 Facebook Fan Page. August 26, 2010. within 45 days.
Disqualified candidates
Alex Hammer, business owner and self-published author.Alex Hammer for Maine Governor (official candidate website) Did not appear on the ballot due to not meeting the deadline for turning in petition signatures. Hammer attempted to turn in some of the signatures electronically, but the secretary of state ruled that such methods were not allowed. Hammer filed suit to appear on the ballot in Penobscot County Superior Court on June 28, 2010. On September 28, 2010, the judge upheld the secretary of state's decision.
Withdrawn
Samme Bailey. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures. Augustus Edgerton. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures. Michael Heath, former leader of the Christian Civic League of Maine (now known as the Maine Family Policy Council). Withdrew from the race due to lack of petition signatures. John Whitcomb. Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.
Maine Green Independent Party The Maine Green Independent Party did not have a gubernatorial candidate on the ballot, as no candidate collected the required number of signatures.
Withdrawn Patrick Quinlan, political activist, author, and lone legislative aide of Maine Green Independent Party caucus in state House of Representatives for 2004 and 2005; former campaign manager and consultant for Green state representative John Eder Lynne Williams, attorney and former state chair of the Maine Green Independent Party.Lynne Williams for Governor 2010 (official candidate website) On March 15, 2010, she announced her withdrawal from the campaign, citing a lack of clean elections funds and qualifying signatures.Green candidate drops out of governor's race March 15, 2010, Portland Press Herald
General election
Predictions Source Ranking As of Cook Political Report October 14, 2010 Rothenberg October 28, 2010 RealClearPolitics November 1, 2010 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 28, 2010 CQ Politics October 28, 2010
Polling Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize Margin oferror Paul LePage (R) Libby Mitchell (D) Eliot Cutler (I) Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott (I) UndecidedMPRC/Down East Magazine October 28–30, 2010 546 ± 4.19% 39% 24% 29% 4% 1% 2%Critical Insights/MaineToday Media October 27–28, 2010 621 ± 4% 40% 21% 21% 4% 1% 11%Pan Atlantic SMSPan Atlantic SMS October 25–28, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 38.6% 21.8% 30.6% 2.8% 1.1% 7.3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 26–28, 2010 1,812 ± 2.3% 40% 24% 28% 4% 1% 2%Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 40% 26% 26% - - 5%Critical InsightsCritical Insights October 13–17, 2010 600 ± 4% 32% 20% 19% 5% 1% 21%Pan Atlantic SMS October 11–15, 2010 501 ± 4.4% 32.9% 28.0% 14.0% 4.6% 0.4% 20.2%Rasmussen Reports October 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 32% 21% * * 6%Critical Insights/MaineToday MediaCritical Insights / MaineToday Media October 10–11, 2010 605 ± 4% 32% 26% 11% 5 1 26%Pine Tree Politics/Maine Center for Public OpinionPine Tree Politics / Maine Center for Public Opinion October 4–7, 2010 679 ± 3.76% 29.6% 28.7% 11.1% 4.9% 1.6% 24.1%Critical Insights/MaineToday MediaCritical Insights / MaineToday Media September 27, 2010 405 ± 4.9% 29% 30% 9% 5% 0% 26%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 20, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 45% 27% 14% * * 10%Critical Insights/MaineToday MediaCritical Insights / MaineToday Media September 13, 2010 603 ± 4% 38% 25% 11% 4% 1% 21%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 2–6, 2010 1,468 ± 2.6% 43% 29% 11% 5% 1% 12%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports August 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 30% 16% * * 11%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports July 14, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 31% 15% * * 12%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports June 10, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 36% 7% * * 14% * Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, two Independent candidates who appeared on the ballot, were not offered as choices in the Rasmussen polls.
Results
Results by county County Paul LePageRepublican Eliot CutlerIndependent Libby MitchellDemocratic Shawn MoodyIndependent Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % # % # % Androscoggin 18,007 43.0% 13,316 31.8% 6,838 16.3% 1,566 3.7% 2,149 5.1% 4,691 11.2% 41,876 Aroostook 11,353 42.4% 7,478 28.0% 5,307 19.8% 2,030 7.6% 584 2.2% 3,875 14.4% 26,752 Cumberland 38,984 30.4% 53,036 41.3% 27,097 21.1% 8,423 6.6% 881 0.7% -14,052 -10.9% 128,421 Franklin 5,877 42.9% 4,495 32.8% 2,571 18.8% 520 3.8% 241 1.8% 1,382 10.1% 13,704 Hancock 9,056 35.2% 11,258 43.8% 4,445 17.3% 774 3.0% 190 0.7% -2,202 -8.6% 25,723 Kennebec 23,567 43.5% 17,146 31.6% 11,406 21.0% 1,482 2.7% 620 1.1% 6,421 11.9% 54,221 Knox 6,830 36.5% 7,327 39.2% 3,970 21.2% 442 2.4% 132 0.7% -497 -2.7% 18,701 Lincoln 7,196 40.5% 6,598 37.2% 3,304 18.6% 516 2.9% 141 0.8% 598 3.3% 17,755 Oxford 10,281 39.5% 8,416 32.4% 4,659 17.9% 1,437 5.5% 1,207 4.6% 1,865 7.1% 26,000 Penobscot 25,721 42.5% 24,150 39.9% 8,253 13.6% 1,856 3.1% 527 0.9% 1,571 2.6% 60,507 Piscataquis 3,724 48.5% 2,809 36.5% 837 10.9% 235 3.1% 81 1.1% 915 12.0% 7,686 Sagadahoc 6,495 37.2% 6,796 39.0% 3,330 19.1% 647 3.7% 180 1.0% -301 -1.8% 17,448 Somerset 9,994 48.8% 6,814 33.3% 2,703 13.2% 699 3.4% 258 1.3% 3,180 15.5% 20,468 Waldo 7,088 40.3% 6,684 38.0% 3,053 17.4% 614 3.5% 150 0.9% 404 2.3% 17,589 Washington 5,586 43.1% 4,846 37.4% 1,858 14.4% 475 3.7% 181 1.4% 740 5.7% 12,946 York 28,103 34.1% 27,031 32.8% 19,456 23.6% 7,026 8.5% 754 0.9% 1,072 1.3% 82,370Totals218,06538.1%208,27036.4%109,38719.1%28,7565.0%8,2881.4%9,7651.7%572,766 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Androscoggin (largest city: Lewiston) Aroostook (largest city: Presque Isle) Kennebec (largest city: Augusta) Lincoln (largest city: Waldoboro) Oxford (largest town: Rumford) Penobscot (largest city: Bangor) Waldo (Largest city: Belfast) York (largest town: Biddeford)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent Cumberland (largest municipality: Portland) Hancock (largest municipality: Ellsworth) Knox (largest municipality: Rockland) Sagadahoc (largest town: Bath)
Analysis