The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the 40th governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer (R–Delano), former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL), and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected governor. Emmer would be elected to the United States House of Representatives four years later.
This was the first time the Democrats won the governorship since Rudy Perpich won re-election in 1986. With a margin of 0.4% (or 8,770 votes), this election was the closest race of the 2010 gubernatorial election cycle.
Republican primary After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term, the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.
Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses, winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50% of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits. Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated. Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor.
On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party's state convention in Minneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.
Emmer won the August 10 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.
Candidates
Declared Bob Carney Jr., inventor William McGaughey Leslie Davis, environmental activist Gregory K. Soderberg Tom Emmer, state representative Annette Meeks, Metropolitan Council member Ole Savior, perennial candidate, artist, poet Todd "Elvis" Anderson, Elvis impersonator
Withdrew Patricia Anderson, former state auditor Bill Haas, former state representative, former mayor of Champlin David Hann, state senator Phil Herwig, activist Mike Jungbauer, state senator, former mayor of East Bethel Paul Kohls, state representative Marty Seifert, state representative, former State House minority leader
Declined Laura Brod, state representative Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator, former St. Paul mayor Paul Koering, state senator Tim Pawlenty, incumbent governor Jim Ramstad, former U.S. representative Brian Sullivan, businessman Steve Sviggum, commissioner of Labor and Industry and former State House speaker Charlie Weaver, former commissioner of Public Safety
Results
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. The other each candidates received single-digit support.
Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim.
On April 24, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth. State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well, endorsing Kelliher. Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.
Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou was Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson's administration. On May 24, Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. Solon was a psychologist and three-term state senator. On May 27, Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson was a small-business owner and former TV anchor.
Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee. He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21.
Candidates
Declared Mark Dayton, former United States senator Yvonne Prettner Solon, Minnesota state senator Matt Entenza, former State House minority leader Robyne Robinson, former television personality Peter Idusogie Lady Jayne Fontaine Margaret Anderson Kelliher, State Speaker of the House John Gunyou, Minnetonka city manager
Withdrew Tom Bakk, state senator Susan Gaertner, Ramsey County attorney Steve Kelley, former state senator John Marty, state senator and 1994 DFL gubernatorial nominee Patricia Torres Ray, state senator Tom Rukavina, state representative R.T. Rybak, Minneapolis mayor Paul Thissen, state representative
Declined Chris Coleman, mayor of Saint Paul Mike Opat, chairman of the Hennepin County Board of Commissioners
Polling Poll sourceDates administeredMark DaytonMatt EntenzaMargaret Anderson KelliherUndecidedSampling errorSurvey USASurvey USAAugust 2–4, 2010 43% 22% 27% 8% 4.5%Minnesota PollJuly 26–29, 2010 40% 17% 30% 13% 7.3%Survey USASurvey USAJune 14–16, 2010 39% 22% 26% 11% 4.5%Humphrey Institute /MPRHumphrey Institute / MPRMay 13–16, 2010 38% 6% 28% 28% 8.75%
Results
At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.
Independence primary On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.
Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.
Candidates Rob Hahn Thomas Harens Tom Horner, public affairs consultant Jim Mulder Phil Ratté Gayle-Lynn Lemaster John T. Uldrich Stephen Williams Rahn V. Workcuff Mark F. Workcuff
Withdrew Joe Repya, former lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army
Declined Dean Barkley, former U.S. senator Peter Bell, Metropolitan Council chair David Olson, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce president Tim Penny, former U.S. representative
Results
General election Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided. As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup, while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86% chance of winning and Emmer 14%.
Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8,770 votes (0.42%). The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.
Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles.
Candidates Mark Dayton (DFL), former United States senator; and Yvonne Prettner Solon, Minnesota state senator Tom Emmer (R), state representative; and Annette Meeks, Metropolitan Council member Linda Eno (Resource Party) and Howard Hanson Farheen Hakeem (G) and Dan Dittman Tom Horner (IP), public affairs consultant; and Jim Mulder Ken Pentel (EDP) and Erin Wallace Chris Wright (GR) and Edwin Engelmann
Predictions Source Ranking As of Cook Political Report October 14, 2010 Rothenberg October 28, 2010 RealClearPolitics November 1, 2010 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 28, 2010 CQ Politics October 28, 2010
Polling
Graphical summary
Poll source Dates administeredMargion of Error TomEmmer (R) MarkDayton (DFL) TomHorner (I) UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Oct. 27 – 29, 2010 ±2.2% 40% 43% 15% 3%SurveyUSASurveyUSA Oct. 24 – 27, 2010 ±4% 38% 39% 13% 9%Minnesota Public RadioMinnesota Public Radio Oct. 21 – 25, 2010 ±3.6% 29% 41% 11% 20%St. Cloud State UniversitySt. Cloud State University Oct. 10 – 21, 2010 ±5.0% 30% 40% 19% 10%Minnesota PollMinnesota Poll Oct. 18 – 21, 2010 ±3.9% 34% 41% 13% 12%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports Oct. 20, 2010 ±4.0% 41% 44% 10% 5%Survey USASurvey USA Oct. 11 – 13, 2010 ±3.7% 37% 42% 14% 7%Rasmussen Reports Oct. 6, 2010 ±4% 38% 40% 15% 7%Humphrey Institute/MPRHumphrey Institute/MPR Sep. 22 – 26, 2010 ±3.6% 27% 38% 16% 19%Minnesota PollMinnesota Poll Sep. 20–23, 2010 ±4.1% 30% 39% 18% 13%Rasmussen Reports Sep. 22, 2010 ±4% 42% 41% 9% 2%Survey USASurvey USA Sep. 12 – 14, 2010 ±3.9% 36% 38% 18% 4%Humphrey Institute/MPRHumphrey Institute/MPR Aug. 31, 2010 ±5.3% 34% 34% 13% 19%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports Aug. 12, 2010 ±4.0% 36% 45% 10% 10%Survey USA Aug. 2 – 4, 2010 ±2.7% 32% 46% 9% 13%Minnesota Poll Jul. 26 – 29, 2010 ±4.3% 30% 40% 13% 17%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports Jul. 19, 2010 ±4.5% 36% 40% 10% 14%Survey USA Jun. 14 – 16, 2010 ±2.5% 35% 38% 12% 15%Decision Resources, Ltd.Decision Resources, Ltd. May 28 – Jun. 2, 2010 ±3.5% 28% 40% 18% 14%Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010±4.5% 37% 35% 12% 16%Humphrey Institute/MPRHumphrey Institute/MPRMay 13 – 16, 2010±5.8% 31% 35% 9% 25%Survey USASurvey USA May 3 – 5, 2010±4.1% 42% 34% 9% 15%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports Mar. 10, 2010±3% 35% 38% 7% 20%
With Entenza Poll source Dates administered Tom Emmer (R) Matt Entenza (DFL) Tom Horner (I) Undecided Sampling errorSurvey USA August 2–4, 2010 33% 38% 12% 17% 2.7%Minnesota Poll July 26–29, 2010 31% 36% 15% 17% 4.3%Rasmussen Reports July 19, 2010 36% 37% 12% 15% 4.5%Survey USA June 14–16, 2010 37% 33% 12% 18% 2.5%Decision Resources, Ltd. May 28 – June 2, 2010 27% 34% 19% 20% 3.5%Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010 37% 34% 12% 17% 4.5%Humphrey Institute /MPR May 13–16, 2010 32% 28% 11% 29% 5.8%Survey USA May 3–5, 2010 42% 31% 10% 16% 4.1%Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 37% 28% 8% 26% 3%
With Kelliher Poll source Dates administered Tom Emmer (R) Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL) Tom Horner (I) Undecided Sampling errorSurvey USA August 2–4, 2010 33% 39% 12% 17% 2.7%Minnesota Poll July 26–29, 2010 29% 38% 13% 18% 4.3%Rasmussen Reports July 19, 2010 35% 40% 11% 14% 4.5%Survey USA June 14–16, 2010 35% 33% 12% 21% 2.5%Decision Resources, Ltd. May 28 – June 2, 2010 28% 38% 17% 17% 3.5%Rasmussen Reports May 24, 2010 38% 36% 11% 15% 4.5%Humphrey Institute /MPR May 13–16, 2010 32% 29% 10% 30% 5.8%Survey USA May 3–5, 2010 41% 33% 9% 17% 4.1%Rasmussen Reports March 10, 2010 37% 34% 8% 19% 3%
With Pawlenty SourceDateTim PawlentyMark DaytonKSTP-TV/SurveyUSAKSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 47% 43% SourceDateTim PawlentyR. T. RybakKSTP-TV/SurveyUSA May 20, 2009 47% 42%