2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This was one of the three Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that John McCain won in the 2008 presidential election along with North Dakota and West Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. Lincoln then lost the general election to U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman, whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator since the 1978 United States Senate election in Maine. With Democratic Governor Mike Beebe concurrently winning re-election, this is the last time that Arkansas simultaneously voted for gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates of different political parties.

Democratic primary The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010. Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Business Week, April 1, 2010.

Candidates Nominee Blanche Lincoln, incumbent U.S. senator

Eliminated in runoff Bill Halter, incumbent lieutenant governor of Arkansas

Eliminated in primary D.C. Morrison, businessman

Withdrew before primary Drew Pritt, activist and 2006 candidate for lieutenant governor of Arkansas

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror BlancheLincoln BillHalter D.C.Morrison Other UndecidedResearch 2000Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 5% 46% 37% 6% — 11%Research 2000Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 35% — 7% (Drew Pritt) 15%Talk BusinessTalk Business April 13, 2010 1,167 ± 3% 38% 31% 10% — 20%Research 2000Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 31% — — 25%Research 2000Research 2000 November 30 – December 2, 2009 600 ± 4% 42% 26% — — 32%

Results

Runoff Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror BlancheLincoln BillHalter UndecidedResearch 2000Research 2000 June 2–4, 2010 600 ± 4% 45% 49% 6%Research 2000Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 47% 9%

Results

Republican primary The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates Nominee John Boozman, optometrist and U.S. representative for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district

Eliminated in primary Randy Alexander, University of Arkansas housing director and vice chair of the Washington County Tea Party Gilbert Baker, state senator Curtis Coleman, businessman Kim Hendren, minority leader of the Arkansas Senate Jim Holt, former state senator, nominee for this U.S. Senate seat in 2004, and nominee for lieutenant governor of Arkansas in 2006 Fred Ramey, real estate investment company owner Conrad Reynolds, retired U.S. Army colonel

Straw poll In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:

Gilbert Baker – 35% Curtis Coleman – 33% Conrad Reynolds – 23% Tom Cox – 4% Kim Hendren – 2% Fred Ramey – 2% Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RandyAlexander GilbertBaker JohnBoozman CurtisColeman KimHendren JimHolt FredRamey ConradReynolds Other UndecidedResearch 2000Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 – ± 4% — 12% 46% — 6% 19% — — 4% 13%Talk BusinessTalk Business April 13, 2010 1,357 ± 3% 3% 14% 46%5%3%8%1%3%—17%

Results

General election

Candidates John Boozman, U.S. representative Trevor Drown (L), military veteran John Gray (G), mayor of Greenland Blanche Lincoln, incumbent senator

Campaign Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators. Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security, as well as for trying to tie her name, and beliefs to Bill Clinton. She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.

Debates 2010 United States Senate general election in Arkansas debateDateLinkDemocraticRepublican Participant   Absent   Non-invitee   Invitee WithdrawnBlanche LincolnJohn Boozman1October 13, 2010C-SPANC-SPAN

Predictions Source Ranking As of Cook Political Report October 9, 2010 Inside Elections October 8, 2010 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 28, 2010 RealClearPolitics October 9, 2010 CQ Politics October 9, 2010

Fundraising Candidate (Party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Blanche Lincoln (D) $9,508,007 $8,431,989 $1,886,132 $0 John Boozman (R) $1,452,241 $968,318 $483,923 $11,905 Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror BlancheLincoln (D) JohnBoozman (R) Other UndecidedRasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsOctober 28, 2010500± 4.5%36% 55%5%4%CNN/Time/Opinion ResearchCNN/Time/Opinion ResearchOctober 15–19, 20101,505± 2.5%41% 55%——Mason-DixonMason-DixonOctober 15–19, 2010625± 4%34% 55%6%5%Talk BusinessTalk Business October 14, 20101,953± 2.2%36% 49%8%7%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsSeptember 30, 2010500± 4.5%37% 55%3%5%Reuters/IpsosReuters/IpsosSeptember 17–19, 2010600± 4%39% 53%1%7%Mason-DixonMason-DixonSeptember 12–14, 2010625± 4%34% 51%4%11%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsAugust 18, 2010500± 4.5%27% 65%4%3%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsJuly 20, 2010500± 4.5%35% 60%2%3%Reuters/IpsosReuters/IpsosJuly 16–18, 2010600± 4%35% 54%1%10%Talk BusinessTalk BusinessJuly 17, 2010793± 3.7%32% 57%5%6%Magellan StrategiesMagellan StrategiesJuly 12, 2010879± 3.3%29% 60%4%6%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsJune 15, 2010500± 4.5%32% 61%4%3%Research 2000Research 2000May 24–26, 2010600± 4%38% 58%—4%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports May 19, 2010500± 4.5%28% 66%2%4%Research 2000Research 2000May 10–12, 2010—± 4%40% 54%——Research 2000Research 2000April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42% 52%——Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsApril 26, 2010500± 4.5%30% 57%9%5%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsMarch 30, 2010500± 4.5%36% 51%6%7%Research 2000Research 2000March 22–24, 2010600± 4%42% 49%—9%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsMarch 1, 2010500± 4.5%39% 48%6%7%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsFebruary 1, 2010500± 4.5%35% 54%4%7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingJanuary 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%33% 56%—11%

Poll Source BlancheLincoln (D) GilbertBaker (R) Other Undecided Public Policy Polling (report) March 20–22, 2009 600 ± 4% 48% 37% — 16% Public Policy Polling (report) August 21–24, 2009 784 ± 3.5% 40% 42% — 18% Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 44% 37% — 19% Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 39% 47% 5% 8% Zogby (report) November 16–17, 2009 501 ± 4.5% 41% 39% 2% 18% Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 47% 6% 7% Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 — ± 4% 42% 41% — — Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 51% 3% 7% Public Policy Polling (report) January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 35% 50% — 15% Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 52% 6% 8% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 40% 45% 6% 8% Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 41% 49% — 10% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 51% 6% 7% Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 53% 12% 4% Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 40% 47%—— Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010— ± 4% 39% 45%—— Poll Source BlancheLincoln (D) KimHendren (R) Other Undecided Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 47% 28% — 25% Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 44% 5% 10% Zogby (report) November 16–17, 2009 501 ± 4.5% 45% 29% 2% 24% Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 39% 46% 6% 9% Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 — ± 4% 46% 30% — — Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 47% 4% 10% Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 7% 7% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 43% 7% 12% Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 43% 48% — 9% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 5% 8% Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 30% 51% 11% 8% Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 40% 50%—— Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010— ± 4% 40% 46%—— Poll Source BlancheLincoln (D) CurtisColeman (R) Other Undecided Public Policy Polling (report) August 21–24, 2009 784 ± 3.5% 40% 41% — 19% Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 45% 37% — 18% Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 43% 5% 11% Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 40% 44% 7% 9% Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 — ± 4% 44% 39% — — Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 48% 4% 9% Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 50% 7% 9% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 41% 43% 7% 10% Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 47% — 9% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 48% 7% 8% Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% 52% 8% 7% Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 46%—— Poll Source BlancheLincoln (D) JimHolt (R) Other Undecided Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 45% 6% 10% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 7% 7% Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 54% 6% 9% Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010— ± 4% 41% 44%——

with Bill Halter Poll Source BillHalter (D) JohnBoozman (R) Other Undecided Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 52% 6% 9% Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 40% 48% — 12% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 48% 8% 11% Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 56% 7% 7% Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 47%—— Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010— ± 4% 41% 50%—— Poll Source BillHalter (D) GilbertBaker (R) Other Undecided Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 44% 5% 13% Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 46% — 10% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 44% 7% 12% Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 48% 10% 9% Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 44%—— Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010— ± 4%42% 42%——