2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

The 2004 United States Senate election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004. The election was concurrent with elections to the United States House of Representatives and the presidential election. Incumbent Senator Don Nickles decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Fellow Republican Tom Coburn won the open seat. This was the last open-seat Oklahoma U.S. Senate race until 2026, and the last election for this seat in which the Republican nominee did not win every county.

Democratic primary Candidates Brad Carson, U.S. representative Carroll Fisher, Oklahoma insurance commissioner Monte E. Johnson, attorney Jim Rogers, perennial candidate W. B. G. Woodson

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BradCarson CarrollFisher JimRogers MonteJohnson W. B. G.Woodson Undecided/OtherSurveyUSASurveyUSAJune 25–27, 2004563 (LV)± 4.2%61%15%6%4%1%13%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research StrategiesMay 20–21, 2004300 (RV)± 5.7%45%7%3%45%

Results

Republican primary Candidates Bob Anthony, Oklahoma corporation commissioner Tom Coburn, former U.S. representative Kirk Humphreys, former mayor of Oklahoma City Jay Richard Hunt, activist

Campaign Humphreys, the former mayor of Oklahoma City, ran for the United States Senate with institutional conservative support, namely from Senators Don Nickles and Jim Inhofe, as well as former Congressman J. C. Watts. However, Coburn received support from the Club for Growth and conservative activists within Oklahoma. Humphreys noted, "[Coburn is] kind of a cult hero in the conservative portion of our party, not just in Oklahoma. You can't get right of the guy." Much of Coburn's celebrity within the Republican Party came from his tenure in Congress, where he battled House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who he argued was moving the party to the center of the political spectrum due to their excessive federal spending. Coburn's maverick nature culminated itself in 2000 when he backed conservative activist Alan Keyes for President rather than George W. Bush or John McCain.

Ultimately, Coburn triumphed over Humphreys, Anthony, and Hunt in the primary, winning every county in Oklahoma except for tiny Harmon County.

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error TomCoburn KirkHumphreys BobAnthony Jay RichardHunt LindaMurphy Undecided/OtherSurveyUSASurveyUSAJuly 23–25, 2004517 (LV)± 4.4%54%25%13%8%SurveyUSASurveyUSAJuly 16–18, 2004436 (LV)± 4.8%46%32%12%10%Club for Growth (R)Club for Growth (R)July 11–12, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%51%22%8%19%Consumer LogicConsumer LogicJuly 8–12, 2004291 (RV)± 5.9%37%34%7%1%21%SurveyUSAJune 25–27, 2004408 (LV)± 5%38%34%16%12%CMA Strategies (R)CMA Strategies (R)June 6–8, 2004400 (LV)± 5%34%36%10%20%Wilson Research StrategiesMay 20–21, 2004300 (RV)± 5.7%21%21%11%5%42%Consumer LogicConsumer LogicMar 26–Apr 5, 2004± 5.9%34%22%12%32%

Results

General election Candidates Sheila Bilyeu (I), perennial candidateKrehbiel, Randy "Former Oklahoma City TV journalist Abby Broyles files to take on Sen. Jim Inhofe" Tulsa World Apr. 9, 2020 Accessed Oct. 11, 2021. Brad Carson (D), United States congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district Tom Coburn (R), former United States congressman from Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district

Campaign Carson and Coburn engaged each other head-on in one of the year's most brutal Senate contests. Coburn and the National Republican Senatorial Committee attacked Carson for being too liberal for Oklahoma and for being a vote in lockstep with John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Ted Kennedy. To drive the point home, one television advertisement aired by the Coburn campaign accused Carson of being "dangerously liberal" and not supporting the war on terrorism.Archived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: Coburn was aided in this effort by the fact that the Kerry campaign did not contest the state of Oklahoma and that incumbent President George W. Bush was expected to win Oklahoma comfortably. This was compounded by the fact that Vice-President Dick Cheney campaigned for Coburn and appeared in several television advertisements for him.http://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/adspotlight/2004/10/1007oksen1.htm Carson countered by emphasizing his Stilwell rootsArchived at Ghostarchive and the Wayback Machine: and his moderation, specifically, bringing attention to the fact that he fought for greater governmental oversight of nursing home care for the elderly. Carson responded to the attacks against him by countering that his opponent had committed Medicaid fraud years prior, in an event that reportedly left a woman sterilized without her consent. Ultimately, however, Carson was not able to overcome Oklahoma's conservative nature and Senator Kerry's abysmal performance in Oklahoma, and he was defeated by Coburn by 11.5%. As of 2026, the result remains the closest the Democrats have come to winning a Senate election in Oklahoma since David Boren won a landslide reelection victory in 1990.

Predictions Source Ranking As of Sabato's Crystal Ball November 1, 2004

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered SamplesizeKey:A – all adultsRV – registered votersLV – likely votersV – unclear Marginof error TomCoburn (R) BradCarson (D) SheilaBilyeu (I) Undecided/OtherSurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 28–30, 2004656 (LV)± 3.9%47%39%8%6%Sooner PollSooner PollOctober 27–28, 2004498 (LV)± 4.4%44.4%35.1%4.2%16.3%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research StrategiesOctober 22–24, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%41%38%6%15%Sooner PollSooner PollOctober 20–21, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%38.0%36.8%5.8%19.4%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsOctober 20, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%48%43%9%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 18–20, 2004625 (LV)± 4%47%41%8%4%Global Strategy Group (D)Global Strategy Group (D)August 18–20, 2004600 (LV)± 4%44%45%11%Consumer LogicConsumer LogicOctober 14–19, 2004750 (RV)± 3.6%40%47%13%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research StrategiesOctober 15–17, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%42.2%39.0%3.6%14.4%Sooner PollSooner PollOctober 14, 2004300 (LV)± 5.7%40.6%43.3%2.0%14.1%Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)October 10–11, 2004500 (RV)± 4.3%46%41%3%10%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research Strategiesp. 2October 8–10, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%37.8%40.0%7.2%15.0%Sooner PollSooner PollOctober 7, 2004330 (LV)± 5.4%39.2%39.8%21.0%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 4–6, 2004609 (LV)± 4.1%46%44%5%5%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research Strategiesp. 2October 1–3, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%41.2%42.6%2.4%13.8%Sooner PollSooner PollSeptember 28–29, 2004553 (LV)± 4.1%37.2%44.1%18.7%Basswood Research (R)Basswood Research (R)September 27, 2004± 4.4%41.0%39.6%2.4%17.0%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research Strategiesp. 2September 24–26, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%39.2%44.2%3.2%13.4%Global Strategy Group (D)September 24, 2004600 (LV)± 4%40%44%16%Sooner PollSooner PollSeptember 22, 2004394 (LV)± 4.9%37.0%39.8%23.2%SurveyUSASurveyUSASeptember 20–22, 2004610 (LV)± 4%45%45%6%4%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research StrategiesSeptember 17–19, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%40%41%2%17%Sooner PollSooner PollSeptember 15, 2004412 (LV)± 4.8%35%42%23%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research StrategiesSeptember 10–12, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%37%39%6%18%Wilson Research StrategiesSeptember 3–5, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%42%36%5%17%Westhill PartnersWesthill PartnersSeptember 1–2, 2004400 (LV)± 5%42%44%1%13%SurveyUSASurveyUSAAugust 16–18, 2004586 (LV)± 4.1%47%43%10%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research StrategiesAugust 15–18, 2004300 (LV)± 5.6%46%37%2%15%Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates (R)August 10–12, 2004500 (RV)± 4.3%47%39%14%Global Strategy Group (D)Global Strategy Group (D)August 8–11, 2004600 (LV)± 4%45%43%12%Basswood Research (R)Basswood Research (R)July 29, 2004600 (LV)± 4%43.5%31.8%24.7%Consumer LogicJuly 8–12, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%39%42%21%Wilson Research StrategiesWilson Research StrategiesJune 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%37%35%1%27%Wilson Research StrategiesMay 20–21, 2004500 (RV)± 4.4%41%39%20%Consumer LogicMar 26–Apr 5, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%35%37%28%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error KirkHumphreys (R) BradCarson (D) SheilaBilyeu (I) Undecided/OtherConsumer LogicJuly 8–12, 2004825 (RV)± 3.4%38%47%15%Wilson Research StrategiesJune 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%34%41%2%23%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error BobAnthony (R) BradCarson (D) SheilaBilyeu (I) Undecided/OtherWilson Research StrategiesJune 28–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%34%39%2%25%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Atoka (largest city: Atoka) Bryan (largest city: Durant) Caddo (largest city: Anadarko) Coal (largest city: Coalgate) Cotton (largest city: Walters) Craig (largest city: Vinita) Greer (largest city: Mangum) Harmon (largest city: Hollis) Jefferson (largest city: Waurika) Johnston (largest city: Tishomingo) Kiowa (largest city: Hobart) Le Flore (largest city: Poteau) Love (largest city: Marietta) Marshall (largest city: Madill) Mayes (largest city: Pryor Creek) Murray (largest city: Sulphur) Nowata (largest city: Nowata) Okfuskee (largest city: Okemah) Osage (largest city: Hominy) Pittsburg (largest city: McAlester) Pushmataha (largest city: Antlers) Seminole (largest city: Seminole) Sequoyah (largest city: Sallisaw) Tillman (largest city: Frederick) Cherokee (largest city: Tahlequah) Choctaw (largest city: Hugo) Hughes (largest city: Holdenville) Latimer (largest city: Wilburton) McIntosh (largest city: Checotah) Muskogee (largest city: Muskogee) Okmulgee (largest city: Okmulgee) Ottawa (largest city: Miami) Delaware (largest city: Grove) Adair (largest city: Stilwell)

See also 2004 United States Senate elections

Notes

References

External links Official campaign websites (archived) Tom Coburn (R) for Senate Brad Carson (D) for Senate Sheila Bilyeu (I) for Senate