The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 72 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Nationals WA, 1 Green and 4 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis.Two Candidate Preferred by Division: AEC The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.Electoral matrix: APH
Government seats (72)Marginal (27)Corangamite (Vic)Darren CheesemanALP0.41Greenway (NSW)Michelle RowlandALP0.88La Trobe (Vic)Laura SmythALP0.91Robertson (NSW)Deborah O'NeillALP1.00Lindsay (NSW)David BradburyALP1.12Moreton (Qld)Graham PerrettALP1.13Banks (NSW)Daryl MelhamALP1.45Deakin (Vic)Mike SymonALP2.41Petrie (Qld)Yvette D'AthALP2.51Reid (NSW)John MurphyALP2.68Lilley (Qld)Wayne SwanALP3.18Brand (WA)Gary GrayALP3.33Capricornia (Qld)Kirsten LivermoreALP3.68Lingiari (NT)Warren SnowdonALP3.70Page (NSW)Janelle SaffinALP4.19Grayndler (NSW)Anthony AlbaneseALP4.23 v GRNEden-Monaro (NSW)Mike KellyALP4.24Blair (Qld)Shayne NeumannALP4.24Parramatta (NSW)Julie OwensALP4.37Dobell (NSW)Craig ThomsonALP5.07Kingsford Smith (NSW)Peter GarrettALP5.16McEwen (Vic)Rob MitchellALP5.32Rankin (Qld)Craig EmersonALP5.41Hindmarsh (SA)Steve GeorganasALP5.70Fremantle (WA)Melissa ParkeALP5.70Oxley (Qld)Bernie RipollALP5.77Perth (WA)Stephen SmithALP5.88Fairly safe (16)Chisholm (Vic)Anna BurkeALP6.11Bass (Tas)Geoff LyonsALP6.74Werriwa (NSW)Laurie FergusonALP6.75Barton (NSW)Robert McClellandALP6.86Richmond (NSW)Justine ElliotALP6.99Braddon (Tas)Sid SidebottomALP7.48Melbourne Ports (Vic)Michael DanbyALP7.56Adelaide (SA)Kate EllisALP7.69McMahon (NSW)Chris BowenALP7.81Batman (Vic)Martin FergusonALP7.86 v GRNBruce (Vic)Alan GriffinALP8.12Griffith (Qld)Kevin RuddALP8.46Fowler (NSW)Chris HayesALP8.76Watson (NSW)Tony BurkeALP9.14Canberra (ACT)Gai BrodtmannALP9.15Bendigo (Vic)Steve GibbonsALP9.53Safe (23)Franklin (Tas)Julie CollinsALP10.82Isaacs (Vic)Mark DreyfusALP11.02Jagajaga (Vic)Jenny MacklinALP11.52Ballarat (Vic)Catherine KingALP11.70Wakefield (SA)Nick ChampionALP11.95Throsby (NSW)Stephen JonesALP12.11Makin (SA)Tony ZappiaALP12.20Blaxland (NSW)Jason ClareALP12.23Lyons (Tas)Dick AdamsALP12.29Chifley (NSW)Ed HusicALP12.34Hunter (NSW)Joel FitzgibbonALP12.48Newcastle (NSW)Sharon GriersonALP12.49Charlton (NSW)Greg CombetALP12.67Shortland (NSW)Jill HallALP12.85Cunningham (NSW)Sharon BirdALP13.17Holt (Vic)Anthony ByrneALP13.23Hotham (Vic)Simon CreanALP13.50Kingston (SA)Amanda RishworthALP13.91Fraser (ACT)Andrew LeighALP14.20Corio (Vic)Richard MarlesALP14.22Maribyrnong (Vic)Bill ShortenALP16.86Sydney (NSW)Tanya PlibersekALP17.07Calwell (Vic)Maria VamvakinouALP19.72Very safe (6)Port Adelaide (SA)Mark ButlerALP20.03Lalor (Vic)Julia GillardALP22.15Gorton (Vic)Brendan O'ConnorALP22.16Scullin (Vic)Harry JenkinsALP22.25Wills (Vic)Kelvin ThomsonALP22.64Gellibrand (Vic)Nicola RoxonALP23.90Crossbench seats (confidence and supply) (4)Denison (Tas)Andrew WilkieIND1.21 v ALPMelbourne (Vic)Adam BandtGRN6.04 v ALPLyne (NSW)Rob OakeshottIND12.73 v NATNew England (NSW)Tony WindsorIND21.52 v NAT Opposition seats (72)Marginal (27)Hasluck (WA)Ken WyattLIB0.57Boothby (SA)Andrew SouthcottLIB0.75Dunkley (Vic)Bruce BillsonLIB1.02Brisbane (Qld)Teresa GambaroLNP1.13Macquarie (NSW)Louise MarkusLIB1.26Forde (Qld)Bert van ManenLNP1.63Solomon (NT)Natasha GriggsCLP1.75Aston (Vic)Alan TudgeLIB1.76Longman (Qld)Wyatt RoyLNP1.92Herbert (Qld)Ewen JonesLNP2.17Canning (WA)Don RandallLIB2.19Dawson (Qld)George ChristensenLNP2.43Swan (WA)Steve IronsLIB2.53Bonner (Qld)Ross VastaLNP2.82Macarthur (NSW)Russell MathesonLIB3.02Bennelong (NSW)John AlexanderLIB3.12Sturt (SA)Christopher PyneLIB3.43Flynn (Qld)Ken O'DowdLNP3.58Fisher (Qld)Peter SlipperLNP4.13Casey (Vic)Tony SmithLIB4.18McMillan (Vic)Russell BroadbentLIB4.41Leichhardt (Qld)Warren EntschLNP4.55Dickson (Qld)Peter DuttonLNP5.13Hughes (NSW)Craig KellyLIB5.17Gilmore (NSW)Joanna GashLIB5.32Paterson (NSW)Bob BaldwinLIB5.33Stirling (WA)Michael KeenanLIB5.55Fairly safe (15)Cowan (WA)Luke SimpkinsLIB6.29Goldstein (Vic)Andrew RobbLIB6.47Higgins (Vic)Kelly O'DwyerLIB6.75Fairfax (Qld)Alex SomlyayLNP6.95Ryan (Qld)Jane PrenticeLNP7.16Wannon (Vic)Dan TehanLIB7.29Mayo (SA)Jamie BriggsLIB7.35Kooyong (Vic)Josh FrydenbergLIB7.55Menzies (Vic)Kevin AndrewsLIB8.72Hume (NSW)Alby SchultzLIB8.72Forrest (WA)Nola MarinoLIB8.74Pearce (WA)Judi MoylanLIB8.86Flinders (Vic)Greg HuntLIB9.11Cowper (NSW)Luke HartsuykerNAT9.27Indi (Vic)Sophie MirabellaLIB9.94Safe (27)Wright (Qld)Scott BuchholzLNP10.15McPherson (Qld)Karen AndrewsLNP10.28Hinkler (Qld)Paul NevilleLNP10.39Bowman (Qld)Andrew LamingLNP10.39Calare (NSW)John CobbNAT10.74Grey (SA)Rowan RamseyLIB11.16Moore (WA)Mal WasherLIB11.19Gippsland (Vic)Darren ChesterNAT11.45Tangney (WA)Dennis JensenLIB12.32Cook (NSW)Scott MorrisonLIB12.66Barker (SA)Patrick SeckerLIB12.88Warringah (NSW)Tony AbbottLIB13.09Durack (WA)Barry HaaseLIB13.67North Sydney (NSW)Joe HockeyLIB14.06Fadden (Qld)Stuart RobertLNP14.19Farrer (NSW)Sussan LeyLIB14.51Wentworth (NSW)Malcolm TurnbullLIB14.86Wide Bay (Qld)Warren TrussLNP15.61Mackellar (NSW)Bronwyn BishopLIB15.72Curtin (WA)Julie BishopLIB16.19Berowra (NSW)Philip RuddockLIB16.20Mitchell (NSW)Alex HawkeLIB17.16Moncrieff (Qld)Steven CioboLNP17.49Riverina (NSW)Michael McCormackNAT18.17Bradfield (NSW)Paul FletcherLIB18.18Groom (Qld)Ian MacfarlaneLNP18.53Parkes (NSW)Mark CoultonNAT18.86Very safe (3)Murray (Vic)Sharman StoneLIB20.35Maranoa (Qld)Bruce ScottLNP22.89Mallee (Vic)John ForrestNAT24.41Crossbench seats (2)O'Connor (WA)Tony CrookNWA3.56 v LIBKennedy (Qld)Bob KatterIND18.34 v LNP
References
External links Two party swing by seat: Psephos (Dr Adam Carr)