Climate change has serious effects on Russia's climate, including average temperatures and precipitation, as well as permafrost melting, more frequent wildfires, flooding and heatwaves. Changes may affect inland flash floods, more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion reduced snow cover and glacier melting, and may ultimately lead to species losses and changes in ecosystem functioning.
Russia is part of the Paris Agreement that the rise in global average temperature should be kept way below 2 °C. Since Russia is the fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, action is needed to reduce the impacts of climate change on both regional and global scale.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes According to IPCC (2007), climate change affected temperature increase which is greater at higher northern latitudes in many ways. For example, agricultural and forestry management at Northern Hemisphere higher latitudes, such as earlier spring planting of crops, higher frequency of wildfires, alterations in disturbance of forests due to pests, increased health risks due to heat-waves, changes in infectious diseases and allergenic pollen and changes to human activities in the Arctic, e.g. hunting and travel over snow and ice. From 1900 to 2005, precipitation increased in northern Europe and northern and central Asia. Recently these have resulted in fairly significant increases in GDP. Changes may affect inland flash floods, more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion, reduced snow cover and species losses.IPCC Working group III fourth assessment report, Summary for Policymakers 2007
Temperature changes until now At present, the average annual temperature in the western regions of Russia rises by 0.4 – 0.5 °C every decade. This is due to both an increase in the number of warm days, and also a decrease in the number of cold days, since the 1970s. The occurrence of extremely hot days in the summer season has increased over the past 50 years, and the number of summer seasons with extremely hot days between 1980 and 2012 has doubled compared to the preceding three decades.
Over the last 100 years, the warming in Russia has been around 1.29 degrees Celsius, while warming on the global scale has been a, 0.74 degrees, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, showing that the warming of the Russian climate is happening at a faster rate than average. In the Arctic, for example, temperatures are rising at double the rate of the global average, 0.2 degrees per decade over the past 30 years. The annual surface air temperature maxima and minima both increased, and the number of days with frost decreased over the last 100 years. The warming has been most evident in the winter and spring periods, and is more intense in the eastern part of the country, according to the Inter-Agency Commission of the Russian Federation on Climate Change, 2002. As a consequence, a lengthening of the vegetation period is seen across much of Russia, with the earlier onset of spring, and later beginning of autumn.
Precipitation changes until now Patterns in precipitation changes are harder to identify, on average, increases in annual precipitation (7.2 mm/10 years) between 1976 and 2006 were observed in Russia in general. However, differing regional patterns have also been observed. A clear pattern is an increase in spring precipitation of 16.8mm per decade in Siberia and western parts of Russia, and a general decrease in precipitation in eastern regions.
Changes in snow cover and depth over the last 30 years show that snow cover decreased considerably in the western regions of Russia, as it did in the northern hemisphere in general. A general decrease in snow cover depth was also observed in western parts of the country. The main reason for this is the rise in temperatures. However, the increase in precipitation at higher latitudes has also led to an observed increase in snow accumulation in regions where winter temperatures remain cool enough.
Ice cover and glacier changes until now Satellite observations of the changes in sea ice cover have shown a steady decrease in sea ice over the last 20 years, especially in the Arctic. The ice cover of rivers in the Baltic Sea drainage basin of Russia has also decreased over the last 50 years. The duration of river ice cover in the area decreased by between 25 and 40 days on average. Similarly, ice cover thickness has also decreased (by 15 – 20%) over the second half of the 20th century.
As a consequence of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, glaciers in Russia have been reduced by between 10 and 70% over the second part of the 20th century. The differences in rate of glacier changes depend on specific local climatic dynamics.
Projected temperature changes Climate change is projected to lead to warming temperatures in most areas of the world, but in Russia this increase is expected to be even larger than the global average. By 2020, the average annual temperatures increased by around 1.1 °C compared to the 1980-1999 period, and temperatures are expected to continue rising, increasing by between 2.6 and 3.4 °C by 2050 (depending on the RCP model used). The rise in daily temperature minima is expected to be more dramatic than that of the daily temperature maxima, progressively decreasing the difference between the two. In addition, the number of days with frost is projected to decrease by between 10 and 30 days in different regions of the country, with the greatest decreases in the western parts of Russia (and in Eastern Europe). By 2100, average annual temperatures compared to the 1960-1990 period are expected to increase the most in the Arctic region, by around 5.5 °C. In central regions of the country, a slightly smaller increase of 4.5 - 5.5 °C is expected, and in southern and western regions, an increase between 3.5 and 4 °C.
Most projection models show that the most dramatic temperature increase is expected in winter average daily temperatures, especially in the western parts of the Russia (and in eastern Europe). This pronounced increase in winter temperatures is connected to the reduction of snow cover as a consequence of climate change. Less winter snow cover because of warmer temperatures leads to a reduced albedo effect. This results in less of the sun's radiation being reflected away from the earth, and more being absorbed by the ground, increasing surface air temperatures. Higher temperatures lead to even less snow cover, forming a positive feedback loop.
The Arctic, which forms a large part of the territory of Russia, is particularly vulnerable to climate change and is warming much more rapidly than the global average. See also: "Climate change in the Arctic".
Climate change and the associated temperature increases will also heighten the intensity of heat waves in Russia. Extreme heat waves such as the one that hit Russia and eastern Europe in 2010 (the hottest summer in the last 500 years in this region) will become more likely, leading to an increase in the associated heat-related deaths and economic losses.
Projected precipitation changes Most models and emission scenarios show, by the year 2100, the average annual precipitation is projected to increase over most of Russia as compared to the 1960-1990 period. The highest precipitation increases of >20% are expected in the northern regions of the country, with most other regions experiencing increases between 10 and 20%. Most of this increase is projected to be in winter precipitation. However, a decrease in precipitation is expected in the southern regions of Russia, especially in the south-west and Siberia.
Overall, climate change will lead to an important reduction in snow cover in most areas of Russia. The projected increase in winter precipitation in most parts of the country will be mainly due to rain, reducing the snow mass and increasing winter runoff. Meanwhile, in Siberia, the increased precipitation is expected to fall as snow, however this will lead to accumulation of snow mass in winter followed by rapid melting in the spring, increasing the risk of floods.
Projected ice cover and glacier changes Most of the changes in ice cover brought on by climate change in Russia will happen in the Arctic. Compared to the 1910-1959 period, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is expected to continue to decrease during the 21st century, with the maximum ice extent (in March) decreasing by around 2% per decade, and the minimum ice extent (in September) decreasing by around 7% per decade. The breaking up of ice cover significantly endangers the habitat of polar bears as well as other Arctic species and the ecosystem as a whole. It may lead to an increase in iceberg occurrence as well as erosion of the coastline.
For more details about the specific impacts of climate change in the Arctic, please see the article "Climate Change in the Arctic".
Permafrost
Permafrost is soil which has been frozen for two or more years. In most Arctic areas it is from a few to several hundred metres thick. Permafrost thawing may be a serious cause for concern.
Thawing permafrost represents a threat to industrial infrastructure. In May 2020 thawing permafrost at Norilsk-Taimyr Energy's Thermal Power Plant No. 3 caused an oil storage tank to collapse, flooding local rivers with 21,000 cubic metres (17,500 tonnes) of diesel oil. The 2020 Norilsk oil spill has been described as the second-largest oil spill in modern Russian history.
Wildfires IPCC show that higher temperatures may increase the frequency of wildfires. In Russia, this includes the risk of peatland fires. Peat fire emissions may be more harmful to human health than forest fires. According to Wetlands International the 2010 Russian wildfires were mainly 80–90% from dewatered peatlands. Dewatered bogs cause 6% of human global warming emissions. yle 12.8.2010 Moscow air was filled with peat fire emissions in July 2010 and regionally visibility was below 300 metres.Venäjän metsäpalot tukaloittavat moskovalaisten elämää yle 26 July 2010 However, recent peatland restoration efforts in the area of Moscow following the 2010 wildfires have decreased the risk of severe fires in the future.
Taiga The taiga is a biome mainly consisting of coniferous forests (where pines, spruce and larch dominate the tree cover), that mainly ranges all the way from western to eastern parts of Russia. This enormous forest region acts as an important carbon sink able to accumulate and store carbon, which contributes to lower the concentration of in the atmosphere. Much of the carbon is stored in peatlands and wetlands.
Tundra The tundra is a biome characterised by the absence of trees due to low temperatures and a short growing season. The vegetation in the tundra is instead composed of shrubs, sedges, mosses, lichens and grasses. Russia encompasses a large proportion of the Arctic tundra biome. The increases in temperature caused by climate change lead to longer and warmer growing periods in the tundra. This in turn leads to increased productivity of the tundra biome, which in the long run will likely cause northern boreal forests to invade the tundra, changing the ecosystem. Meanwhile, the southern distribution of boreal forests is likely to retreat northwards, due to increasing temperatures, drought stress, more forest fires and new insect species.
Impacts on people Impacts on indigenous people
Climate change has impacted the traditional lifestyle of the indigenous people of Russia's Far North. Around 2.5 million people live in the Arctic zone. The majority of Russia's indigenous people are located in the Arctic and Siberian regions.