Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925 – 31 December 2007) was an American researcher, scientist, futuristFour Geeky Laws That Rule Our World and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering, and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.
Amara's law His adage, coined in 1978, about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.Context
The reasoning behind this quote is because of the intense reaction to the development of something new and innovative; but when that technology doesn't immediately affect our day to day lives, or there isn't a major impact in the world it is quickly forgotten about. His law has been important for companies to keep them grounded and to not spend on unproven, attractive technologies.
Selected bibliography
Books
Reports
Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.Roy Amara at DBLP bibliography
References