Climate change is impacting the human population and environment of Japan. In recent years, the country has observed notable changes in its climate patterns, with rising temperatures serving as a prominent indicator of this phenomenon. The nation experiences a broad range of climates, spanning from the frigid winters of Hokkaido to the subtropical climates of Okinawa. Changes in temperature patterns have the potential to disrupt ecosystems, impact agricultural productivity, modify water resources, and pose significant challenges to infrastructure and human settlements.
Japanese government is increasingly enacting climate change policy to respond. The government has been criticised for lacking a credible plan to get to its pledged net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. As a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol, and host of the 1997 conference which created it, Japan is under treaty obligations to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions and to take other steps related to curbing climate change.
Greenhouse gas emissions Out of the global GHG emissions, Japan is responsible for 2.6%. The average rate of emissions per person in Japan is almost double the global average. Emissions have been slightly reduced since 2013 and the net zero emissions are set by 2050.
Japan has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050. In 2019 Japan emitted 1212 Mt CO2eq, The per capita emissions were 9.31 tonnes in 2017 and was the 5th largest producer of carbon emissions. greenhouse gas emissions by Japan are over 2% of the annual world total, partly because coal supplies over 30% of its electricity. Coal-fired power stations were still being constructed in 2021 some may become stranded assets. +Carbon dioxide emissions from energy, 2011-2021 (Mt CO2)201120122013201420152016201720182019202020211237.31324.51314.11280.41239.91220.21214.11192.41151.41058.31081.7 Calculations in 2021 show that to give the world a 50% chance of avoiding a temperature rise of 2 degrees or more, Japan should increase its climate commitments by 49%. For a 95% chance, it should increase the commitments by 151%. For a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees, Japan should increase its commitments by 229%. A March 2021 analysis by Climate Action Tracker said that Japan should reduce greenhouse gas emissions so that by 2030 the emissions are 60% below 2013 levels; this would support a goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. + emission by sectorSector20192021Energy432.93430Industry279.2269Transportation198.58178Commercial industry64.7159.9Households53.3651.6Industrial processes45.1743Waste30.8829.9Other3.112.9Furthermore, Japan has witnessed a decrease in its annual emissions, with a 5.3% reduction in industrial emissions due to decreased steel production. Residential emissions fell by 1.4%, while vehicle emissions rose by 3.9%. Despite these changes, Japan still heavily relies on fossil fuels, which constitute about 70% of its power generation. In terms of renewable energy, Japan aims for 10 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030 but is currently projected to only reach 4.4 gigawatts.
On 18 February 2025, Japan has set new targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2035 and 73% by 2040, while aiming for renewables to provide 50% of its electricity by 2040. The revised energy and industrial policies focus on decarbonization, energy security, and economic growth, despite challenges in offshore wind energy and nuclear power.
Transportation The transportation sector accounts for 20% out of the total emission of Japan.Kii, M., Isikawa, R., & Komeani, Y. (2023). Toward a carbon neutral urban transportation system in Japan. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, Volume 62, 2021, 127171 Within the transportation sector, it is mainly oil that is being used. This particular sector currently relies on fossil fuels and is projected to continue doing so for a while. One challenge to decarbonize the transportation sector is the cost of such technologies required for the transformation. Emissions have been decreasing within the sector since 2001 due to fuel efficiency of cars and population decline.
Energy supply and fossil fuels The energy supply is mainly made out of fossil fuels, reaching up to 88% of the total primary energy supply in 2019. The fossil fuels are composed of a combination of oil (38%), coal (27%) and gas (23%). In 2012, the Fukushima disaster led to an increase in Japan's dependence on fossil fuels. The country's energy supply has been impacted by the phasing out of nuclear power, with only 4% of the supply coming from nuclear sources in 2019 compared to 15% in 2010. Fossil fuel is mainly imported and the high dependence on the non-renewable sources is making it difficult to reach a carbon-neutral society. Out of Japan's total primary energy supply, only 8% is made out of renewable sources; however, this has been doubled since 1990.
Industrial emissions Although Japan is a developed country, it still has a large presence of energy-intensive industries (such as the production of steel and cement) compared to other developed economies. The country has a high energy consumption that can be compared to emerging countries like China, India, and Brazil.Ju, Y., Sugiyama, M., Kato, E. et al. (2021). Industrial decarbonization under Japan's national mitigation scenarios: a multi-model analysis. Sustain Sci 16, pp. 411 – pp. 427 In Japan, the overall industrial emissions domestically account for approximately 967.4 million tons of annually. Among the industries the iron and steel sector has the highest emission rate, accounting for around 111.9 million tons of .Statista. 2020. Carbon dioxide emissions from the manufacturing sector in Japan in 2020, by industry. Available at, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1305632/japan-carbon-dioxide-emissions-manufacturing-sector-by-industry Accessed: 2023-04-10
Current Emissions Overview According to data released by the Ministry of Environment, Japan's total greenhouse gas emissions for the fiscal year ending in March 2023 declined by 2.3%, amounting to 1.085 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent. This reduction marks a 23% decrease compared to the levels recorded in 2013. Despite this progress, Japan is yet to meet its ambitious target of a 46% reduction by 2030. The primary contributor to this decrease was the industrial sector, which saw a 5.3% drop in emissions, largely due to a decrease in steel production and a corresponding reduction in power demand. In addition, residential emissions decreased by 1.4%. However, not all sectors showed a decline; emissions from the transportation sector, for example, increased by 3.9%.
On the renewable energy front, Japan has set a target to achieve 10 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2030. Yet, projections suggest that Japan is on pace to reach only 4.4 gigawatts by the end of the decade, indicating significant challenges ahead in meeting its renewable energy goals.
Impacts on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes
Temperature
Climate change has affected Japan drastically. The temperature and rainfall have increased rapidly in the years leading up to 2020. This has resulted in immature rice grains and also oranges that automatically get separated from their skin due to immature growth by inappropriate weather. Many corals in the Japanese seas and oceans have died due to rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification. Tiger mosquitoes, which transmit dengue fever, were found further north than before.
Earth Simulator calculations reveal the daily increase in mean temperature in Japan during the period 2071 to 2100. The temperature will increase by 3.0 °C in Scenario B1 and 4.2 °C in A1B compared to that of 1971 to 2000. Similarly, the daily maximum temperature in Japan will increase by 3.1 °C in B1 and 4.4 °C in A1B. The precipitation in summer in Japan will increase steadily due to global warming (annual average precipitation will increase by 17% in Scenario B1 and by 19% in Scenario A1B during the period 2071–2100 compared to that of 1971–2000).The latest global warming projection by using the Earth Simulator has been completed , Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo
Considering the projections in temperature for Japan, depending on the scenario there are different outcomes. In a worst-case scenario for 2100, where GHG emissions are not declining, an increase of almost 6 °C is expected during winter and almost 5 °C for summer in comparison to the annual in 1900. If a drastic reduction in emissions occurs then the increases will be almost 2 °C and 1,5 °C respectively by 2100.BBC Visual and Data Journalism team (2019) How much warmer is your city? - BBC News, News. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-985b9374-596e-4ae6-aa04-7fbcae4cb7ee Accessed: 2023-04-10
Precipitation Precipitation in Japan varies between 1000mm to 2,500mm annually, causing various events depending on the year, either flooding or lack of water availability for sectors such as agriculture. It is also more complex to predict in any case scenario the effects of climate change, easily, for precipitation. Extreme rainfall events are more frequent the total annual precipitation seems to decrease.
Extreme weather events
Climate change will not only affect parameters such as temperature and precipitation. Extreme events seem to have increased as well such as heat waves, droughts, tsunamis, storm surges, and typhoons. An increased frequency and prolonged duration of such natural disasters are likely to impact upon the energy, agricultural and tourism sector of Japan.
Sea level rise Global warming has led to an increase in worldwide sea level rise due to the melting to glaciers and ice sheets.
Southern and eastern coastal parts of Japan, have a high probability to be affected by phenomena such as tsunamis and storms.Lindsey, R. (2022) Climate Change: Global Sea Level | NOAA Climate.gov. Available at: Accessed: 2023-04-26
Water resources Water resources are highly dependent on the country's rates of precipitation and evapotranspiration. Temperature projections in Japan are increasingly affecting both water cycle processes, hurting the availability of water resources for Japan.Kim, S., Tachikawa, Y., Nakakita, E., & Takara, K. (2009). Climate change impact on water resources management in the Tone River Basin, Japan. Kyoto University Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annual Report. no. 52B, pp. 587-606 The effect of climate change upon water availability in Japan includes:
Less snow and ice coverage eventually will mean an increase in droughts. Japan is a country that has experienced droughts before. In areas depending on the snow melting for water availability, a decrease in river discharges is expected. Runoffs which are expected based on low and medium emission scenarios to be increased, causing soil erosion, transport of pollutants, and flood risks. Alteration in groundwater storage, affects its infrastructure, causing contamination, and even increasing salination due to sea level rise.
A decrease in water resources could potentially cause problems for Japanese sectors like agriculture which will have to find different cultivation methods to manage water waste, especially in the scenario of severe droughts.
Ecosystems Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and sea level rise are some potential effects of climate change, which are leading to changes in the distribution and abundance of plant and animal species. Listed below, are ecosystems that will potentially get affected by climate change in Japan: