Though tensions had existed between Georgia and Russia for years and more intensively since the Rose Revolution, an international diplomatic crisis escalated in the spring of 2008, namely after Russia announced in response to the Western recognition of the independence of Kosovo that it would no longer participate in the Commonwealth of Independent States economic sanctions imposed on Abkhazia in 1996 and established direct relations with the separatist authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The crisis was also linked to the Georgian attempts to gain a NATO Membership Action Plan at the 2008 Bucharest Summit.
Until the end of June much of the conflict between Russia and Georgia was concentrated in Abkhazia, as were both Georgian and international efforts to negotiate a peace settlement. In early July the theater had moved to South Ossetia, where skirmishes between Ossetian militias and Georgian troops turned deadly on 3 July following the attempted assassination of pro-Georgian president of South Ossetia Dmitry Sanakoyev. The conflict led to a full-scale invasion of Georgia by Russia.
Prelude to war: escalation and incidents
Increased involvement of Russia with breakaway republics in Georgia On 14 February 2008, President of Russia Vladimir Putin declared that Russia had "homework" prepared in case of Kosovo's declaration of independence and would respond accordingly.
Chairman of the State Duma Boris Gryzlov declared during a meeting with the presidents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in February 2008 that Russia should "reshape its relations with self-proclaimed republics". A session was called by Russia's Duma for 13 March to discuss the issue of recognition of the unrecognized republics in the former Soviet Union. Abkhazia and South Ossetia both submitted formal requests for recognition of their independence to Russia, and international community. Both cited the precedent of the recognition of Kosovo.
On 26 February 2008, Belgium and Germany asked at NATO Individual Partnership Action Plan summit if Georgia was acting in "conciliatory" manner towards the separatists in contrast to Eastern Europe's full support for granting Membership Action Plan to Georgia.
On 26 February 2008, the Georgian Foreign Ministry issued a note to Vyacheslav Kovalenko, Russian ambassador to Georgia, because the 2008 Russian presidential election would be held in Abkhazia and South Ossetia without Georgia's consent. The Russian presidential election was held in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in February 2008, long before the elections in Russia would be held, and the polling stations were opened in almost all settlements of South Ossetia. According to Shota Malashkhia, the member of the Georgian parliament, ethnic Georgian population in Abkhazia's Gali District was coerced to vote in the Russian elections.
On 1 March 2008, Russian General Vasily Lunev, former Deputy Commander of Siberian Military District, was appointed as defence minister of South Ossetia. After the August war, he suggested in an interview that he, as a military serviceman, obeyed the initiative of his superior to become the commander of the South Ossetian army.
On 6 March 2008, Russia cancelled Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) sanctions imposed on Abkhazia in 1996, and declared them outdated. Georgia's central government in Tbilisi protested the Russian decision. The other CIS countries did not embrace cancellation of sanctions. Shalva Natelashvili, leader of the Georgian Labour Party, warned this Russian action would lead to the loss of Abkhazia for Georgia. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovenia Dimitrij Rupel said foreign ministers of the European Union were concerned by this development, while Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt stated that Russian economic ties with Abkhazia could lead to de facto annexation which was alarming. European Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner said that there was "a growing preoccupation and anxiety that Russia may be paving the way for recognition of Abkhazia," and declared the EU's support for Georgia's territorial integrity.
On 10 March 2008, first deputy head of the Committee on International Affairs of the Russian State Duma Leonid Slutsky said that Abkhazia "must be encouraged, including by the lifting of restrictions" for the fulfillment of obligations for solving the conflict. On 11 March 2008, Georgian MPs were considering to demand 20 billion United States dollars from Moscow for damages incurred in Abkhazia.
Dmitry Rogozin, Russian ambassador to NATO, threatened that a move by Georgia to accede to NATO could increase the support for the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, arguing that exclusion of the separatist-controlled territories from the NATO referendum held in Georgia showed Georgia's intention to join NATO without them. Vice-speaker of Russian parliament Leonid Slutsky said that "no decisions will be taken" in the parliament hearings on 13 March 2008, since Russia supported Georgia's territorial integrity and "will not suddenly change its position and announce the opposite." Rogozin also said that Ukraine would also lose the eastern territories if it continued the pursuit of NATO membership. Vladimir Socor observed: "At worst, no MAP decision could tempt Russia into testing whether Georgia had become fair game."
On 13 March 2008, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament of South Ossetia Tarzan Kokoity declared that Abkhazia and South Ossetia would become independent in 2008. He stressed that Russia had already unofficially recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia since long. On 13 March, the Duma Committee for CIS, following a hearing on the unrecognized republics, recommended on a deepening of links with Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. Other recommendations included the establishment of diplomatic missions in the regions (with the foreign ministry to choose whether they would be consulates or another type of mission), a removal of import duties on goods created by businesses with Russian co-owners in the regions, and increased humanitarian and economic aid for the residents owning Russian passports. The Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily described the hearing as "the launch of a procedure of recognition."
On 21 March 2008, Russian State Duma adopted a resolution, in which it called on the President of Russia and the government to consider the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Alexey Ostrovsky, Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs and Relations with Compatriots, said that NATO could not accept Georgia until Georgia settled its territorial disputes. Ostrovsky suggested in April that the Russian government had the right to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgia's NATO membership was "forced".
On 1 April 2008, during his visit to Kyiv, President of the United States George W. Bush expressed his support for Georgia's and Ukraine's accession to NATO. Bush planned to meet Russian president Putin on 6 April in Sochi. On 3 April 2008, the heads of state of Abkhazia and South Ossetia received a letter from Russian president Putin at the same time when the NATO summit was being held in Bucharest. The letter called separatist leaders "presidents" and assured them of "practical, not declaratory" assistance from Russia. On 8 April, the Russian Ministry of Justice informed its Georgian colleagues in a letter that Russian links with the two breakaway regions would be bolstered. Journalist Petru Bogatu later wrote that after the Bucharest summit announced that the membership would be considered in December 2008, Russian diplomats and journalists attending the summit suggested that the war in the Caucasus before December was inevitable. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Russia would "do everything" to prevent Georgia's and Ukraine's NATO membership. Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Yuri Baluyevsky said on 11 April that Russia would carry out "steps of a different nature" in addition to military action to block NATO membership of former Soviet republics. Baluyevsky's statement was not seen as accidental by Russian media because he had never been known for making unsanctioned statements. Members of the Georgian parliament saw Baluyevsky's statement as a threat of Russian military incursion into Georgia. Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (ODKB) Nikolay Bordyuzha said that ODKB would respond to NATO's enlargement. First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Sergei Ivanov suggested that Russian industrial enterprises and the economy of Russia could be refocused on the needs of the war. On 15 May, Yuri Baluyevsky urged the NATO at a session of NATO–Russia Council to stop arming Georgia. He said: "I do not exclude the possibility of a military conflict in Georgia."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on 14 April that soon-to-be announced steps against NATO expansion included the establishment of direct official contacts with separatist authorities and a presidential decree had been prepared to this effect. Konstantin Zatulin, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and Relations with Russian Compatriots, said that the recognition should be postponed to December 2008 to avoid the sharp escalation with the West in the beginning of the presidential term of Dmitry Medvedev. However, he also said, "Now our steps towards the unrecognized republics will meet with understanding in the world as a response to the US recognition of Kosovo. If we do not solve the problem now, then it will remind of itself closer to the Olympics." Russian expert on the Caucasus was concerned by the possible failure of the Georgian opposition: "If the decree is issued before the parliamentary elections in Georgia, this will have an extremely negative impact on the chances of the opposition to win." Anonymous Russian diplomat, who had worked in Georgia, said that direct Russian military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia would prevent Georgia's NATO membership. An anonymous Russian diplomat's words were interpreted as suggesting that de facto annexation was intended by the draft decree.
On 15 April 2008, the embassy of South Ossetia was opened in Sukhumi, Abkhazia.
On 16 April 2008, Vladimir Putin announced that some separatist-authored documents would be accepted by Russia. He said there would be partnership between Russia and separatists in some areas, also ordering his government to recognise entities registered under Abkhaz and South Ossetian laws. The possibility of consular assistance for the populations of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be considered. This decision was linked to the push for Georgia to receive a NATO Membership Action Plan and, indirectly, the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. United States Department of State official Sean McCormack said the US were studying Putin's order and the statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Minister for Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia Sergei Shamba said that Abkhazia was very close to the recognition. Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Ossetia Murat Jioev commented: "This is the actual implementation of all methods that the President of the Russian Federation mentioned, saying that they would not repeat the Kosovo option, and Russia has its own preparations." Russian ambassador to Georgia Vyacheslav Kovalenko said that there was no conflict between Georgia and Russia regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia. President of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity approved Putin's decision, saying that it was "the only right solution to save the lives of Russian citizens." Rallies were held in Abkhazia on 6 May to thank Vladimir Putin for his support for Abkhazia.