Opinion polling for the 2007 Kenyan general election

Opinion polls played an important role in the runup to the Kenyan elections of December 2007. A number of institutes published results on the presidential candidates. Nation Media employed the Kenyan Steadman market information company to conduct regular polls, which thus received the widest attention.

Polls are a new instrument on the Kenyan political scene. Recent elections had seen some results published which met, however, with widespread scepticism.

The publication of polls in 2007 generated large interest and controversy as they were alternatively welcomed or condemned by parties and observers on the national scene and frequently criticised as having been manipulated by one or the other side.https://demokrasia-kenya.blogspot.com/2007/04/demystifying-steadmans-april-fool-prank.html The Steadman Group is part of President Kibaki’s Reelection Campaign Team – Kenyan Democracy Project-BlogTuesday, 3 April 2007 seen 11 August 2007http://kenyalondonnews.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=774&Itemid=44 Steadman Polls – The Real Story (Kenya London News – undated, written before elections, seen 11 January 2008) Steadman polls now questioned (EAStandard 9 December 2007)

Generally polls showed in early stages a lead for President Mwai Kibaki and a strong showing of Kalonzo Musyoka on the opposition side.

After realignments in the opposition Raila Odinga had managed to get the support of regional leaders from a multi-tribal background and Musyoka looked largely reduced to his Kamba hometurf. This showed in the polls with Odinga surging ahead.

After re-formation on the president's side criticism at Odinga became more pointed and this message seems to have had effect in narrowing the difference between the leading presidential contestants.

National polls Poll dateKibakiMusyokaOdingaMudavadiRutoKenyattaOctober 2006Survey shows Kibaki’s popularity on the rise The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)41%20%13% 3%5%December 2006Kibaki leads again in poll The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)42%20%14% 3% 5% March 2007 The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)51%14%17%2% 2% 2% April 2007 The Standard (Poll by International Republican Institute)44.3%15.3%18.7%2.7% 2.6% 3.5% June 2007 The Standard (Poll by Research and Marketing Services (RMS))45%14%28%4% 3% 4% July 2007 The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)45%11%25%3% 2% 2% August 2007 The Standard, 8 August 2007 (Poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting and Harris Interactive Global)42%11%25%8% 6%1%August 2007 The Standard, 30 August 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)47%13%36%1% 1%September 2007Raila tops table The Daily Nation, 29 September 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) 38%8%47% 13 October 2007 The Standard Online Edition, 13 October 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) 37%8%53%23 October 2007 The Standard Online Edition, 23 October 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) 39%8%50%9 November 2007Raila drops in new ratings Daily Nation, 9 November 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) 41%11%45%21 November 2007Latest surveys forecast tight race for State House Daily Nation (Poll by Consumer Insight), 17 November 2007 41.4%14.7%40.7%17 November 2007New poll predicts close race Daily Nation (Poll by Gallup), 21 November 2007 42%11%45%23 November 2007Raila, Kibaki in nip and tuck race Capital FM (Poll by Steadman International), 23 November 2007 43.3%11.4%43.6%7 December 2007Raila maintains lead in latest poll Capital FM (Poll by Steadman International), 7 December 2007 42%10%46%18 December 2007 The Standard (Poll by Steadman International), 18 December 2007 43%10%45%

Regional polls 23 September 2007

Province The Standard, 26 September 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) Kibaki Odinga Musyoka Undecided Nairobi 40% 44% 10% 5%

29 September 2007

Province The Standard, 29 September 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) Kibaki Odinga Musyoka Undecided RTA Central 79% 12% 1% 4% – Coast 36% 48% 6% 8% – Eastern 49% 34% 6% 3% – Nairobi 37% 51% 5% 4% – North Eastern 27% 70% 3% 0% – Nyanza 8% 85% 0% 2% – Rift Valley 35% 53% 3% 8% – Western 25% 65% 4% 3% – # of Wins 2 6 0

23 October 2007

Province Raila tops yet again in latest opinion poll ratings with lead in six provinces Daily Nation, 27 October 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) Kibaki Odinga Musyoka Undecided RTA Central 89% 5% 2% – – Coast 36% 49% 10% – – Eastern 55% 8% 36% – – Nairobi 43% 46% 8% – – North Eastern 20% 77% 1% – – Nyanza 17% 82% 0% – – Rift Valley 29% 65% 4% – – Western 29% 61% 3% – – # of Wins 2 6 0

23 November 2007

ProvinceKibakiOdingaMusyokaUndecidedRTACentral92.8%5.0%2.0% – –Coast34.7%51.5%9.7% – –Eastern48.9%6.1%43.8% – –Nairobi46.3%39.3%12.1% – –North Eastern32.2%64.4%3.4% – –Nyanza11.9%85.3%1.8% – –Rift Valley39.3%55.8%3.9% – –Western20.7%72.8%1.4% – –# of wins350

7 December 2007

Province The Standard, 7 December 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)KibakiOdingaMusyokaCentral91%8% –Coast35%63%10%Eastern46%6%44%Nairobi41%47% –North Eastern27%65% –Nyanza19%78% –Rift Valley36%61% –Western21%69% –# of wins260

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