Japan has the second highest proportion of elderly citizens of any country in the world. 2014 estimates showed that about 38% of the Japanese population was above the age of 60, and 25.9% was above the age of 65, a figure that increased to 29.1% by 2022. By 2050, an estimated one-third of the population in Japan is expected to be 65 and older. Population aging in Japan preceded similar trends in other countries, such as South Korea and China.
The ageing of Japanese society, characterized by sub-replacement fertility rates and high life expectancy, is expected to continue. Japan had a post-war baby boom between 1947 and 1949, followed by a prolonged period of low fertility. These trends resulted in the decline of Japan's population after reaching a peak of 128.1 million in October 2008. In 2014, Japan's population was estimated to be 127 million. This figure is expected to shrink to 107 million (by 16%) by 2040 and to 97 million (by 24%) by 2050 if this current demographic trend continues. A 2020 global analysis found that Japan was one of 23 countries that could see a total population decline of 50% or more by 2100. These trends have led some researchers to claim that Japan is transforming into a "super-ageing" society in both rural and urban areas.
Japanese citizens largely view Japan as comfortable and modern, with no widespread sense of a "population crisis". The Japanese government has responded to concerns about the stresses demographic changes place on the economy and social services with policies intended to restore the fertility rate as well as increase the activity of the elderly in society.
Ageing dynamics
From 1974 to 2014, the number of Japanese people 65 years or older nearly quadrupled, accounting for 26% of Japan's population at 33 million individuals. In the same period, the proportion of children aged 14 and younger decreased from 24.3% in 1975 to 12.8% in 2014. The number of elderly people surpassed the number of children in 1997. Sales of adult diapers surpassed diapers for babies in 2014. This change in the demographic makeup of Japanese society, referred to as population ageing (, ), has taken place in a shorter period of time than in any other country.
According to population projections based on the current fertility rate, individuals over the age of 65 will account for 40% of the population by 2060, and the total population will fall by one-third from 128 million in 2010 to 87 million by 2060.Population Projections for Japan (January 2012): 2011 to 2060, table 1-1 (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, retrieved 13 January 2016). The proportion of old Japanese citizens will soon level off. However, due to stagnant birth rates, it is estimated that the proportion of young people (under the age of 20) in Japan will constitute only 13 percent in the year 2060, decreasing from 40 percent in 1960.
Economists at Tohoku University established a countdown to national extinction, which projects that Japan will have only one remaining child in 4205. These predictions prompted a pledge by Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to set a threshold for population decline at 100 million.
In September 2026, the health ministry reported Japan had 107,677 people with 100 years old or older, the first time the country surpassed 100,000 people—with 94,298 as being women—since the beginning of the records in 1963, when the country enacted the Act on Social Welfare for the Elderly—with 153 in that year—, and a increase of 7,914 from the previous year. The population in such age range has reached a historic record for 56 consecutive years. Previous figures exceeded 1,000 in 1981, 10,000 in 1998, 50,000 in 2012 and 95,000 in 2024. Health Minister Kenichiro Ueno highlighted the fact that these people are living longer, healthier and more actively, citing advances in medicine and technology.
Causes
High life expectancy Japan's life expectancy was 85.1 years in 2016: 81.7 years for males and 88.5 years for females. As Japan's overall population shrinks due to low fertility rates, the proportion of the elderly increases.
Life expectancy at birth increased rapidly from the end of World War II — when the average life expectancy was 54 years for women and 50 for men — and the percentage of the population aged 65 years and older has increased steadily since the 1950s. Japan is a well-known example, with close to 30 percent of its population aged 65 years or older. The increase in life expectancy translated into a depressed mortality rate until the 1980s, but mortality has increased again to a historic high, since 1950, of 10.1 per 1000 people in 2013.
Factors such as improved nutrition, advanced medical and pharmacological technologies, and improved living conditions have all contributed to the longer-than-average life expectancy. Peace and prosperity following World War II were integral to the massive economic growth of post-war Japan, contributing further to the population's longevity. The proportion of healthcare spending has also dramatically increased as Japan's older population spends more time in hospitals and visiting physicians. On any given day in 2011, 2.9% of people aged 75–79 were in a hospital, and 13.4% were visiting a physician.
Low fertility rate
Japan's total fertility rate, or TFR, the number of children born from each woman in her lifetime, has remained below the replacement threshold of 2.1 since 1974, and reached a historic low of 1.26 in 2005. In 2016, the TFR was 1.41 children born per woman. Experts believe that signs of a slight recovery reflect the expiration of a "tempo effect," arising from a shift in the timing of children being born rather than any positive change.
Economy and culture
A range of economic and cultural factors contributed to the decline in childbirth during the late 20th century: later and fewer marriages, higher education, urbanization, increase in nuclear family households (rather than the extended family), poor work-life balance, increased participation of women in the workforce, a decline in wages and lifetime employment, small living spaces and the high cost of raising a child.
Many young people face economic insecurity due to a lack of regular employment. About 40% of Japan's labor force is non-regular, including part-time and temporary workers. Non-regular employees earn about 53 percent less than regular ones on a comparable monthly basis, according to the Labor Ministry. Young men in this group are less likely to consider marriage or to be married.IPSS, "Attitudes toward Marriage and Family among Japanese Singles" (2011), p. 4. Many young Japanese people also report that fatigue from overwork hinders their motivation to pursue romantic relationships.
Although most married couples have two or more children,National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS). "Marriage Process and Fertility of Japanese Married Couples." (2011). pp. 9–14. a growing number of young people postpone or entirely reject marriage and parenthood. Conservative gender roles often mean that women are expected to stay home with the children rather than work. Between 1980 and 2010, the percentage of the population who had never married increased from 22% to almost 30%, even as the population continued to age, and by 2035 one in four men will not marry during their prime parenthood years. The Japanese sociologist Masahiro Yamada coined the term for unmarried women in their late 20s and 30s who continue to live with their parents.
A government survey released in June 2022 said that among singles, 46.4% desired to get married, while around a quarter explicitly preferred to remain single (26.5% of men and 25.4% of women). Common reasons for forgoing marriage include the loss of freedom, financial burden, and housework. Hitherto unmarried women cited the burden of housework, childcare and nursing care as major reasons, with men citing financial and job instability. Some women also stated a desire not to change their surname.
Virginity and abstinence rates
In 2015, 1 in 10 Japanese adults in their 30s reported having had no heterosexual sexual experiences. After accounting for people who may have had same-sex intercourse, researchers estimated that around 5 percent of people lack any sexual experience whatsoever.Cyrus Ghaznavi, Haruka Sakamoto, Daisuke Yoneoka, Shuhei Nomura, Kenji Shibuya, Peter Ueda. 2019. Trends in heterosexual inexperience among young adults in Japan: analysis of national surveys, 1987-2015. BMC Public Health. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-6677-5 The percentage of 18 to 39-year-old women without sexual experience was 24.6% in 2015, an increase from 21.7% in 1992. Likewise, the percentage of 18 to 39-year-old men without sexual experience was 25.8% in 2015, an increase from 20% in 1992. Men with stable jobs and a high income were found to be more likely to have sex, while low-income men were 10 to 20 times more likely to have had no sex experience. Conversely, women with lower income were more likely to have had intercourse. Men who are unemployed are eight times more likely to be virgins, and men who are part-time or temporary employed had a four times higher virginity rate.
According to a 2010 survey, 61% of single Japanese men in their 20s, and 70% of single Japanese men in their 30s, call themselves "herbivore men" (sōshoku danshi), meaning that they are not interested in getting married or having a girlfriend.
A 2022 survey by the Japanese Cabinet Office found that around 40% of unmarried Japanese men in their 20s have never been on a date. By comparison, 25% of young adult women said they never dated. It is estimated that 5% of married men and women who have had zero dating partners have used konkatsu (short for kekkon katsudo, or marriage hunting, a series of strategies and events similar to finding employment) services to find a spouse.
Effects
Demographic trends are altering relations within and across generations, creating new government responsibilities and changing many aspects of Japanese social life. The aging and decline of the working-age population has triggered concerns about the future of the nation's workforce, potential economic growth, and the solvency of the national pension and healthcare services.Hashimoto, Ryutaro (attributed). General Principles Concerning Measures for the Aging Society. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. Retrieved 2011-3-5.
Social A smaller population could make the country's crowded metropolitan areas more livable, and the stagnation of economic output might still benefit a shrinking workforce. However, low birth rates and high life expectancy have also inverted the standard population pyramid, forcing a narrowing base of young people to provide and care for a bulging older cohort, even as they try to form families of their own. In 2014, the age dependency ratio (the ratio of people over 65 to those aged 15–65, indicating the ratio of the dependent elderly population to those of working age) was 40%. This is expected to increase to 60% by 2036 and to nearly 80% by 2060.Population Projections for Japan (January 2012): 2011 to 2060, table 1-4 (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, retrieved 13 January 2016). Historical research proposes that concerns about population balance are not new because of practices of infanticide. These practices were used during periods of economic strain to keep family size constant and make sure resources lasted. The earlier forms of population control were shaped by rural hardship and differ with the present situation of declining birth rates in Japan.