The 2010 Victorian state election, held on Saturday, 27 November 2010, was for the 57th Parliament of Victoria. The election was to elect all 88 members of the Legislative Assembly and all 40 members of the Legislative Council.
The incumbent centre-left Labor Party government, led by John Brumby, was defeated by the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Ted Baillieu. The election gave the Coalition a one-seat majority in both houses of parliament.
Baillieu's multicultural ministerial advisers helped in attracting multicultural votes towards the Liberal party in marginal seats that mattered. A large majority of the Victorian Indian community voted for the Liberal party.
Campaign
The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as a Coalition, which they had not done since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000. The Liberal Party departed from tradition and gave their preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, thereby decreasing the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor.
The Coalition launched their campaign on 14 November 2010 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in the electoral district of Melbourne, with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in the electoral district of Bendigo East, using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".
Issues The Coalition campaigned heavily against the Brumby Government's new Myki ticketing system, which had been delivered at triple the projected cost and years behind schedule, as well as its construction of an expensive desalination plant that many claimed was unnecessary. Other issues included health, education, and law and order. Ted Baillieu promised to restore the budget to surplus, employ more nurses and police, make Victorian teachers the highest paid in the country, and abolish suspended sentences which were seen as out of touch with community standards.
In 2009 and 2010, Melbourne saw a wave of street violence targeting international Indian students. While the incumbent Labor government was criticized for downplaying the racial element of the attacks, Baillieu broke ranks to fiercely condemn the "fear and terror" the students faced. He actively advocated for their safety and safety on public transport, which built immense trust and goodwill of Victorian Indian community.
Background
At the 1999 election, the Labor Party led by Steve Bracks was able to form a minority government with the parliamentary support of 3 Independents, displacing the incumbent Jeff Kennett Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with a majority government after a landslide win at the 2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the 2006 election with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats, a decrease of 7, and 54.4% of the two-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4%. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.
Political changes The previous elections took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. At the 2006 election, the Labor Party won 55 of the 88 seats, the Liberal Party won 23, the National Party won 9, and there was 1 Independent. Since that date a number of political changes took place.
Both Premier Bracks and Deputy Premier John Thwaites resigned on 27 July 2007.
By-elections Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, four by-elections took place. In Bracks' seat of Williamstown and Thwaites' seat of Albert Park in 2007, former minister Andre Haermeyer's seat of Kororoit in 2008, and former minister Lynne Kosky's seat of Altona in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MP Craig Langdon resigned from his seat of Ivanhoe in August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.Speaker decides against Ivanhoe by-election, ABC News, 14 September 2010.
Retiring MPs Labor Peter Batchelor MLA (Thomastown) Bob Cameron MLA (Bendigo West) Carlo Carli MLA (Brunswick) Judy Maddigan MLA (Essendon) Karen Overington MLA (Ballarat West) George Seitz MLA (Keilor)
Liberal Helen Shardey MLA (Caulfield) John Vogels MLC (Western Victoria Region)
National Ken Jasper MLA (Murray Valley)
Results Legislative Assembly
+Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV) Party Votes % Swing Seats Change Liberal 1,203,654 38.03 3.59 35 12 National 213,492 6.75 1.58 10 1 Coalition total 1,417,146 44.78 5.17 45 13 Labor 1,147,348 36.25 6.81 43 12 Greens 354,697 11.21 1.17 0 Independents 82,395 2.60 0.31 0 1 Family First 72,354 2.29 2.00 0 Country Alliance 42,938 1.36 New 0 Democratic Labour 28,176 0.89 New 0 Sex Party 17,252 0.55 New 0 Socialist Alliance 1,787 0.06 0.02 0 Christian Democrats 636 0.02 New 0 Total valid votes 3,164,729 95.040.40 –– Invalid/blank votes 165,134 4.960.40–– Total 3,329,863 100– 88 Registered voters / Turnout 3,582,232 92.950.23–– Two-party-preferred vote Coalition 1,633,312 51.58 +5.97 45 13 Labor 1,533,225 48.42 −5.97 43 12
Labor suffered a swing of 5.97 percent, a larger swing than the 1992 landslide that brought the Jeff Kennett-led Coalition to power. However, much of that swing was wasted on landslide victories in the Coalition's heartland. As a result, the Coalition only just managed the 13-seat swing it needed to make Baillieu premier, netting it a bare majority of two seats.
On 29 November, with the result beyond doubt, Brumby conceded defeat. He resigned as state Labor leader the next day. The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December 2010, and former Health Minister Daniel Andrews was elected Labor leader on 3 December.
Legislative Council
Legislative Council seats
Legislative Council Region Seats held Eastern Metropolitan Region Eastern Victoria Region Northern Metropolitan Region Northern Victoria Region South Eastern Metropolitan Region Southern Metropolitan Region Western Metropolitan Region Western Victoria Region
Liberal National Labor Green
In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority of 21 seats, with 16 seats won by Labor and 3 won by the Greens.
Seats changing hands Seat Pre-2010 Swing Post-2010 Party Member Margin Margin Member Party Bentleigh Labor Rob Hudson 6.3 -7.1 0.8 Elizabeth Miller Liberal Burwood Labor Bob Stensholt 3.7 -9.6 5.9 Graham Watt Liberal Carrum Labor Jenny Lindell 6.7 -8.7 2.0 Donna Bauer Liberal Forest Hill Labor Kirstie Marshall 0.8 -3.9 3.2 Neil Angus Liberal Frankston Labor Alistair Harkness 3.2 -5.3 2.1 Geoff Shaw Liberal Gembrook Labor Tammy Lobato 0.7 -7.5 6.8 Brad Battin Liberal Gippsland East ¶ Independent Craig Ingram 9.1 -21.1 12.0 Tim Bull National Mitcham Labor Tony Robinson 2.0 -4.7 2.8 Dee Ryall Liberal Mordialloc Labor Janice Munt 3.5 -5.6 2.1 Lorraine Wreford Liberal Mount Waverley Labor Maxine Morand 0.3 -7.8 7.4 Michael Gidley Liberal Prahran Labor Tony Lupton 3.6 -7.8 4.3 Clem Newton-Brown Liberal Seymour Labor Ben Hardman 6.7 -7.9 1.2 Cindy McLeish Liberal South Barwon Labor Michael Crutchfield 4.1 -6.2 3.9 Andrew Katos Liberal
¶ In 2006, the final Gippsland East 2PP count included Independent and Liberal, however in 2010 the final 2PP count included Independent and Nationals
Key dates Terms are fixed at four years. Elections occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.
Key dates for the election were:
2 November: Dissolution of Parliament and lodgement of election writs 9 November: Close of rolls 11 November: Close of nominations for party candidates 12 November: Close of nominations for independents 15 November: Early voting commences 25 November: Close of postal voting 26 November: Early voting closes 27 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)
Opinion polling Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.
+ Better Premier ratings^ LaborBrumby LiberalBaillieu 2010 election ––23 – 25 Nov 201048%38%9 – 11 Nov 201050% 36%Sep – Oct 201049% 31%Jul – Aug 201052% 27%May – Jun 201047% 31%Mar – Apr 201049% 29%Jan – Feb 201051% 29%Nov – Dec 200954% 26%Sep – Oct 200952% 27%Jul – Aug 200952% 27%May – Jun 200954% 21%Jan – Feb 200954% 22%Nov – Dec 200849% 27%Sep – Oct 200845% 27%Jul – Aug 200848% 26%May – Jun 200851% 28%Mar – Apr 200849% 23%Jan – Feb 200848% 25%Nov – Dec 200751% 22%Sep – Oct 200751% 25%2006 election––22 – 23 Nov 200653%1 30%Polling conducted by Newspolland published in The Australian.1 Steve Bracks.^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. +Legislative Assembly (lower house) opinion pollingPrimary vote2PP voteALPLIBNATGRNOTHALPL/NP2010 election36.3%38.0%6.7%11.2%7.8%48.4%51.6%23 – 25 Nov 201033%40%5%15%7%48.9%51.1%9 – 11 Nov 201037%39%5%14%5%51%49%Sep – Oct 201035%36%4%19%6%52%48%Jul – Aug 201038%32%4%17%9%55%45%May – Jun 201034%36%4%18%8%51%49%Mar – Apr 201037%38%3%14%8%52%48%Jan – Feb 201039%36%3%14%8%54%46%Nov – Dec 200941%32%3%14%10%57%43%Sep – Oct 200943%32%3%15%7%57%43%Jul – Aug 200943%35%2%12%8%56%44%May – Jun 200942%34%3%14%7%56%44%Jan – Feb 200946%31%2%15%6%60%40%Nov – Dec 200845%34%3%13%5%57%43%Sep – Oct 200837%37%4%15%7%51%49%Jul – Aug 200841%34%4%12%9%54%46%May – Jun 200841%35%3%14%7%55%45%Mar – Apr 200844%33%3%12%8%58%42%Jan – Feb 200843%34%3%12%8%56%44%Nov – Dec 200751%31%3%9%6%60%40%Sep – Oct 200749%36%4%6%5%56%44%2006 election43.1%34.4%5.2%10.0%7.3%54.4%45.6%22 – 23 Nov 200645%32%5%9%9%56%44%Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
Sky News exit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.
Newspaper endorsements Dailies Sundays Newspaper Endorsement Newspaper Endorsement The Age The Sunday Age The Australian The Weekend Australian The Australian Financial Review Herald Sun Sunday Herald Sun
References